Balloon burst hopes for US-China trust-building. What now?
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Ann Scott Tyson Staff writer
A rare opportunity for the United States and China to revive critical dialogues blew up in a plume of smoke this weekend as a U.S. Air Force jet downed a suspected Chinese spy balloon off the South Carolina coast.
Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said China鈥檚 government was using the balloon, which had traversed American territory for seven days, 鈥渢o surveil strategic sites in the continental United States.鈥� Beijing, claiming the balloon was a civilian airship used primarily for meteorological research and blown off course and into the U.S. by 鈥渁ccident,鈥� protested the U.S. strike as 鈥渁 clear overreaction.鈥�
Regardless of the balloon鈥檚 mission, the crisis was exacerbated by a failure of real-time communication and led Washington to postpone the Feb. 5-6 visit to Beijing of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who would have been the most senior American official to visit China in more than four years.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onThe crisis over China鈥檚 weather or spy balloon has derailed a critical opportunity for restoring talks and building trust between Beijing and Washington 鈥� and also reveals why they are so important.
鈥淲hy didn鈥檛 they [Chinese officials] tell the Americans, 鈥楽orry, our balloon drifted into your territory?鈥欌�� says Yun Sun, a senior fellow and co-director of the East Asia Program and director of the China Program at the Stimson Center.聽鈥淒id they underestimate the severity of the situation?鈥�
Indeed, the balloon incursion underscores a glaring lack of crisis management mechanisms, communications channels, and, ultimately, trust between China and the U.S., experts say. The result is an ever-increasing risk that mistakes or miscalculations between the superpowers will spiral into conflict.
鈥淚t is a very dangerous reality that we鈥檙e dealing with,鈥� says Ms. Sun. 鈥淭his is just a balloon, right? If we鈥檙e talking about, say, a skirmish or incident in the Taiwan Strait, then it鈥檚 going to be much more severe than this.鈥�
Why China won鈥檛 pick up the phone
Nowadays, when the Pentagon picks up the hotline to dial China鈥檚 military during a crisis, often all it hears is an extended ring tone.
From silent communications channels to canceled meetings, U.S.-China military contacts are at a low point, even as tensions between the two countries make mechanisms for managing crises 鈥� such as the balloon incident 鈥� all the more vital, experts say.
鈥淚mproving crisis prevention and crisis management has never been more important in this relationship, and it has been derailed, most recently by the Chinese,鈥� says Michael Swaine, director of the East Asia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington.
Beijing regular military-to-military dialogues between the two countries last year to protest the August visit of then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, the self-governed island off mainland China鈥檚 southern coast that Beijing claims as a province. 鈥淭here is no doubt that a possibility of a misfire will increase鈥� as a result of the severed dialogues, China鈥檚 official Global Times newspaper commented at the time.
Three U.S.-China hotlines set up starting in 1997 still exist, but their effectiveness has proved limited, in part because Beijing doesn鈥檛 always answer.
鈥淭he Chinese PLA [People鈥檚 Liberation Army] has made it quite a pattern, especially when bilateral relations are not good,鈥� says Ms. Sun. 鈥淧icking up the phone is a political statement鈥� and requires approval from senior leaders, she says. 鈥淭he Chinese don鈥檛 see this mechanism for what it is; they see it as a political bargaining chip.鈥�
Indeed, compounding these issues are starkly different Chinese and American understandings of crisis prevention and management, experts say.
For its part, the U.S. sees crisis management as a way to de-escalate and defuse potential conflicts. aims first to prevent crises by simply demanding that the U.S. military avoid operating near China. In cases of a crisis, it holds that any communications should be used as a form of coercion to deter military action.
鈥淭hey are seeing the U.S. as driving the crisis, so the U.S. needs to take responsibility,鈥� says Dr. Swaine.
鈥淗otlines are not meant to resolve the crisis, but to empower higher-level organs within the PRC [People鈥檚 Republic of China] to signal resolve, assign blame, and stall until Beijing stakes out a position of maximum pressure and leverage over the United States,鈥� says a Rand Corp. analysis of the hotlines published last July.
The U.S.-China disconnect over crisis management contrasts sharply with Cold War-era practices, experts say. The U.S. and former Soviet Union 鈥渉ad rules of engagement in the sea and air, even over mutual surveillance [by planes],鈥� Miles Yu, director of the Hudson Institute鈥檚 China Center, said in a C-SPAN appearance Sunday. But, he said, 鈥淐hina has consistently refused to get into this managerial crisis mode.鈥�
Will the balloon blow over?
Despite profound differences and distrust, Beijing and Washington had appeared poised to address restoring not only the military-to-military channels but also dialogues on counternarcotics and other key topics during Secretary Blinken鈥檚 visit.聽
That still may happen after the balloon incident blows over. Mr. Blinken told Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi that the 鈥渉igh-altitude PRC surveillance balloon in U.S. airspace鈥� was 鈥渁n irresponsible act and a clear violation of U.S. sovereignty ... that undermined the purpose of the trip.鈥� But he added that he was prepared to visit Beijing 鈥渁s soon as conditions allow.鈥� Mr. Blinken was expected to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
The U.S. Navy has begun recovering debris from the balloon 鈥� an effort that will reveal more information about the balloon鈥檚 capabilities and China鈥檚 intentions, White House spokesperson John Kirby said Monday. China said another of its balloons 鈥� spotted over Latin America 鈥� had deviated far off course.
鈥淭he Chinese have been developing more uses for these big balloons,鈥� including for launching weapons tests, says Dr. Swaine. 鈥淪o it鈥檚 not surprising to find other balloons floating around in other places.鈥�
The U.S. and China both have strong motivations to stabilize relations and build upon progress made when President Joe Biden met with Mr. Xi on the sidelines of the Group of 20 meeting in Indonesia in November.
鈥淭he U.S. is focused on managing the relationship, preventing it from deteriorating to the point of overt confrontation and conflict,鈥� particularly over Taiwan, says Drew Thompson, a visiting senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.聽
China鈥檚 focus on recovering from a major COVID-19 outbreak and reinvigorating its slowed economy requires easing tensions with the U.S. and other trade partners. Three years of self-imposed isolation under Mr. Xi鈥檚 stringent 鈥渮ero-COVID鈥� policy have taken a toll on China鈥檚 heft in the Indo-Pacific, according to the Asia Power Index, an annual ranking of 26 countries released by the Lowy Institute on Sunday.
Smoother ties between Washington and Beijing could help set the stage for Mr. Xi to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders鈥� meeting in San Francisco in November.
鈥淣either we nor the Chinese are going to dominate each other ... and neither of us is going to capitulate to the other, so we鈥檝e got to find some kind of middle ground,鈥� says Dr. Swaine.聽
