Why South Korea is debating a nuclear weapons program
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Ann Scott Tyson Staff writer
Political momentum is growing in South Korea for acquiring nuclear weapons 鈥� a fringe idea only a few years ago 鈥� amid frustration over North Korea鈥檚 aggressive ramping up of its nuclear arms and missile capabilities.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol warned earlier this month that his country might go nuclear if security keeps deteriorating on the Korean Peninsula. Although he later walked back the comments, Mr. Yoon鈥檚 willingness to raise the nuclear option publicly reflects its popularity among South Koreans, 71% of whom favor their country developing its own nuclear arsenal, according to a poll last year.
鈥淭he South Koreans are very concerned about deterring a whole range of North Korean activities,鈥� says Ankit Panda, Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 鈥淭he perception is that the only way to deter 鈥� is having nuclear weapons of your own.鈥澛�
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onGrowing threats from North Korea have some in South Korea calling for a nuclear weapons program. Experts say what鈥檚 needed is a strengthening of trust and a commitment to cooperation under the U.S. nuclear umbrella.
The debate over nuclear weapons reveals a deepening sense of insecurity in South Korea stemming not only from North Korean provocations but also from China鈥檚 increasing nuclear arsenal and Russia鈥檚 nuclear saber rattling. And, experts say, it has serious implications not only for South Korea and security in Northeast Asia, but also for the global nonproliferation regime.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a rare and remarkable moment any time a U.S. ally moots acquisition of nuclear weapons,鈥� says Mr. Panda. 鈥淚t sets off alarm bells in Washington.鈥�
Nevertheless, both Seoul and Washington have reiterated that they are working together to solidify their alliance and strengthen their deterrence against North Korea 鈥� a priority of both the Yoon and Biden administrations.聽
On Tuesday in Seoul, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup held talks and pledged to bolster planning and expand joint exercises to deter North Korea. In February, the two sides will hold a tabletop exercise to facilitate 鈥渞esponse options to deal with the DPRK [North Korean] nuclear threat,鈥� they said in a joint statement.
鈥淩ight now we have the United States that provides us with a nuclear deterrent,鈥� says retired Lt. Gen. In-Bum Chun, former commander of the Republic of Korea Special Warfare Command. 鈥淏ut we are more concerned than we used to be,鈥� he says. 鈥淜orean people are looking for answers.鈥澛�
New security environment
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un this month directed his country to mass-produce nuclear weapons, while heralding a new law that allows Pyongyang to launch preemptive nuclear strikes. He also called for North Korea to develop a more powerful intercontinental ballistic missile, following the testing of more than 90 ballistic and cruise missiles last year. And experts say North Korea may be preparing for a seventh nuclear test 鈥� the first since 2017.
鈥淕iven all of the advancements that North Korea has made in their nuclear weapons program, and changes in the geopolitical environment, there鈥檚 been a lot more anxiety in South Korea about how they deal with a nuclear North Korea 鈥� and what the U.S. would actually do,鈥� says Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center and director of Stimson鈥檚 38 North Program.
South Korea鈥檚 concern has grown along with Pyongyang鈥檚 ability to put the continental U.S. at risk. Despite the presence of 28,500 U.S. troops in their country, South Koreans have doubts about whether they can rely on what is known as the U.S. nuclear umbrella, or 鈥渆xtended deterrence,鈥� whereby the U.S. is bound by a treaty to swiftly retaliate for any attack on South Korea.
鈥淓ven when the U.S.-ROK [Republic of Korea] alliance is strong, when North Korea intensifies its provocations,鈥� questions arise about the 鈥淯nited States鈥� credibility of extending nuclear and conventional deterrence,鈥� says Ji-Young Lee, associate professor of international relations at American University鈥檚 School of International Studies. 鈥淭his is 鈥� a reflection of North Korea creating another layer of crisis.鈥�
Moreover, South Koreans are drawing a troubling lesson from Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine, and Moscow鈥檚 use of nuclear threats to deter the U.S. and other countries from intervening directly.聽
South Korea is 鈥渨atching how the U.S. has reacted to Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine,鈥� says Ms. Town. 鈥淭hat really raises anxieties 鈥� like what happens if North Korea were to attack? Would the U.S. show a similar restraint?鈥�
South Koreans warm to nuclear armament
South Korea鈥檚 weighing of the nuclear route gained the spotlight with the 2022 election of Mr. Yoon, a populist and conservative leader whose hard-line approach toward Pyongyang contrasts sharply with his predecessor Moon Jae-in鈥檚 focus on reconciliation.
Mr. Yoon has aligned South Korea鈥檚 overall foreign policy more closely with that of the U.S. and its Indo-Pacific strategy. He has emphasized strengthening deterrence through the trilateral partnership between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, which in November Pyongyang鈥檚 multiple missile launches and promised a joint response if North Korea conducts a seventh nuclear test.
In this context, Mr. Yoon鈥檚 statements on the nuclear option are intended as more of a warning to Pyongyang, says Dr. Lee. But Mr. Yoon and other South Korean officials are reportedly interested in the U.S. deploying tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea, three decades after Washington removed them in 1991. Washington has stated it does not support the idea.
Many South Koreans do, says Lieutenant General聽Chun. They think that 鈥渕aybe a balance will be created on the Korean Peninsula, and North and South will both understand unification by force is out the window,鈥� he explains.
A report on North Korea released this month by a U.S. think tank recommends Washington and Seoul should engage in preliminary planning for such a possible option.聽
鈥淭he allies should consider tabletop planning exercises for the possible redeployment of U.S. nuclear weapons to South Korea,鈥� said the by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. It stressed such planning should be 鈥減re-decisional.鈥� 鈥淭he timeline and scope of weapons, such as low-yield nuclear SLCMs [submarine-launched cruise missiles] or gravity bombs, should be left deliberately ambiguous,鈥� it said.
Need for trust
Even if discussions were to take place on the possible redeployment of U.S. nuclear weapons to South Korea, experts say South Korea is unlikely in the foreseeable future to develop its own nuclear weapons given the damage that would cause to the U.S.-South Korean alliance, the global nonproliferation regime, and South Korea鈥檚 economic interests, including its civilian nuclear industry. Such a move would make a crisis with the North more dangerous.
鈥淚f Seoul had nukes, the threats of North Korea would stay the same or get worse,鈥� says Mr. Panda.聽
A better alternative, they say, is for the U.S. to improve its extended deterrence capabilities 鈥� something U.S. officials say is underway.
鈥淪trong, reliable U.S.-extended deterrence would be a more effective deterrent than South Korea pursuing its own nuclear program,鈥� says Rachel Minyoung Lee, a senior analyst with the Open Nuclear Network, an Austria-based organization with the mission of reducing the risk of nuclear conflict.
Equally important, Washington must take steps to build greater trust in the U.S. commitment to safeguarding South Korea. 鈥淭he South Korean people are the ones who are within range of North Korea鈥檚 tactical nuclear weapons and their means of delivery,鈥� says Ms. Lee, a former North Korea analyst for the U.S. government. 鈥淪outh Koreans need stronger assurances from the U.S.鈥�
