海角大神

Ri Son-kwon, the head of the North Korean delegation that met with South Korean negotiators on Tuesday, wanted his counterparts to know that it鈥檚 been an unusually cold winter in the North. So cold, he told them, that rivers and mountains are frozen.

鈥淏ut it wouldn鈥檛 be an exaggeration to say that inter-Korean relations have been frozen more than the cold weather,鈥� he said in a rhetorical flourish. 鈥淗owever, regardless of how cold it is, the people鈥檚 hope for the improvement of the relations between the North and the South is like the water flowing under the frozen rivers.鈥�

It didn鈥檛 take long for signs of a much-needed thaw to emerge from the meeting held in the border village of Panmunjom. The biggest breakthrough, the North鈥檚 decision to send a delegation to the Winter Olympics, was announced before noon. The day ended with the reopening of a military hotline between the two countries, an agreement to hold talks on easing military tensions 鈥� and an offer from the South to resume reunions for families caught on either side of the border, separated now for almost 70 years.

After months of rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, the immediate outcomes of Tuesday's talks may seem starkly inadequate in comparison to the enormous challenge posed by the North鈥檚 rapidly advancing nuclear and missile programs. In the past year, Pyongyang has test-launched a series of ballistic missiles听and conducted its sixth nuclear test, which it claimed was a hydrogen bomb; leader Kim Jong-un declared the program complete in his New Year's address.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in has warned that North Korea would face harsher sanctions if it resumes weapons tests. But for now, he appears to be focused on incremental, unity-building moves 鈥� like the symbolically powerful reunions 鈥� to lay the foundation for better ties and tougher discussions.

鈥淲e must seek to realize the resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue while improving inter-Korean relations,鈥� he said during a news conference in Seoul on Wednesday. 鈥淭hese two issues cannot be separated.鈥�

'The timing is perfect'听

The significance of North Korea's participation in the Winter Olympics, and in any future family reunions, is largely symbolic. South Korea hopes that the talks in Panmunjom will lead to broader negotiations, involving the United States, about how to end the North鈥檚 nuclear program. On Wednesday, Mr. Moon said he was willing to meet Mr. Kim under certain conditions to resolve the nuclear standoff.

Such a meeting, if one were to occur, is months if not years away. The North has so far ignored the South鈥檚 pleas to discuss the nuclear issue, warning that raising it could derail efforts to improve inter-Korean relations.

A more likely next step听would be for the two sides to resume temporary family reunions for relatives in the North and South who have not seen each other since they were separated during the Korean War. For more than six decades, hundreds of thousands of family members have been forbidden to exchange letters, phone calls, or emails, much less meet. More than 60 percent of those in South Korea are now in their听. Time is not on their side.

Divided-family reunions have been a standard feature of negotiations between South and North Korea for decades. They鈥檙e a relatively low-hanging fruit loaded with symbolism about cooperation, forgiveness, and unity, says Scott Snyder, a senior fellow in Korean Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.

鈥淭hey can always go to [family reunions] when there is nothing else really available,鈥澨齅r. Snyder says.听鈥淏oth sides recognize family reunions as a way to send a signal about the desire for a better relationship.鈥�

The reunions of war-torn families are highly emotional affairs and are often viewed as an indicator of relations between the North and South. The last ones were held in 2015 at a mountain resort in southeastern North Korea. Hundreds of elderly Koreans from each country were allowed to meet their spouses, children, and parents on the other side of the border for three days in tightly-regimented, emotional events.听

An estimated 18,800 Koreans have been allowed to participate in 19 face-to-face reunions since听1985,听when the first ones were held. Of the more than 131,000 South Koreans who have registered for the gatherings over the last three decades, 72,300 have passed away and 59,000 听to attend.听

South Korean officials suggested during the meeting on Tuesday that the two Koreas hold talks on the possibility of organizing a new round of reunions, but the North has yet to respond. Mr. Moon made a similar request during a speech he delivered in Germany last July.

鈥淭his is a very emotionally appealing issue to South Koreans, especially among conservatives who are skeptical of the Moon Jae-in administration,鈥� says Bong Young-shik, a research fellow at the Institute for North Korean Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a humanitarian issue that fits nicely with Moon鈥檚 overarching slogan that people should come first.鈥澨�

With the Lunar New Year only five weeks away, Dr. Bong says, 鈥渢he timing is perfect.鈥� The beginning of the new year is a traditional time for family gatherings in Korea. That it also happens to fall in the middle of the Olympics only adds to its significance.

Familiar pattern

Despite all of this, observers question whether North Korea will agree to allow family reunions without demanding some sort of concession in return. Jenny Town, assistant director of the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University in Washington,听says the North is less interested in the reunions themselves than in what comes after them. Will South Korea lift some economic sanctions? Will the US and South Korea scale back or halt their joint military drills?听

Tensions over North Korea's nuclear program may be high, but in its seeming bid for a thaw, many experts see a well-worn pattern they say is unlikely to produce lasting breakthroughs. Pyongyang has听previous听turned up听pressure, then reached out for talks and concessions in apparent听detentes听that later looked like bids for time.听

Moreover, some analysts see Kim鈥檚 offer of talks with Seoul as an attempt to hinder cooperation between South Korea and the United States, as Washington leads the push for firm global sanctions against his regime. While Moon has championed dialogue with the North, US President Trump has threatened military action 鈥� and Kim used the same New Year's speech in which he extended an olive branch south to Seoul to remind Washington of the 鈥渘uclear button鈥� in his office.听

The White House initially appeared lukewarm at the prospect of Tuesday's听talks. Then, last Thursday, it announced that it had agreed with Seoul to delay joint military exercises until after the Olympics.

鈥淚 think President Trump deserves big credit for bringing about the inter-Korean talks, I want to show my gratitude,鈥� Moon said on Wednesday.

For now, however, South Korea is waiting for agreement on the reunions.听

鈥淭here's a lot of skepticism about what it leads to,鈥� Ms. Town says, referring to such an agreement. 鈥淏ut in and of itself, it's always a positive measure.鈥�

While that is undoubtedly true for the families involved, convincing North Korea is another matter.听If Kim decides that the Olympics, family reunions, or any other conciliatory gesture won鈥檛 lead to his ultimate goal 鈥� that is, being accepted as a nuclear power 鈥� he may again fall back on ratcheting up his weapons program.听

鈥淥nce you get over the easy issues, where do the two sides go from there?鈥� asks Town. 鈥淭hat is where you're really going to start to see a much tougher discussion and more ambiguity in what can be achieved and what each side is really willing to do.鈥�