海角大神

Donald Trump railed against few countries as often and as vehemently as he did against China in the run-up to his victory Tuesday. Yet how much of his heated campaign rhetoric will shape concrete policy remains unclear, as does the future of one of the world鈥檚 most important bilateral relationships.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of uncertainty,鈥� says Jia Qingguo, dean of the School of International Relations at Peking University, echoing the sentiments expressed by many Chinese foreign policy experts.

Here鈥檚 a look at some of the major questions that lie ahead:

Will Trump start a trade war with China?

While economists are anticipating a rise in US trade barriers, many say a full-blown trade war is unlikely. Still, Mr. Trump vocally denounced what he called China's unfair trade practices. The president-elect has promised to declare the country a currency manipulator on his first day in office and to slap punitive tariffs of 45 percent on Chinese goods.

But despite Trump鈥檚 tough talk, the currents of globalization run strong, and would be very difficult to reverse. Dani Rodrik, a professor of international economy at Harvard University, writes for The New York Times that he expects Trump will soon understand, if he doesn鈥檛 already, 鈥�.鈥�

That鈥檚 not to say a trade war is impossible. In an editorial published Tuesday, the warned that Trump鈥檚 focus on 鈥淯S economic interests鈥� could threaten 鈥渢o turn Sino-US relations from a geopolitical rivalry to an economic conflict.鈥�

The Global Times reassures readers that China would be able to cope. But Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University, says the country鈥檚 economy is in a vulnerable position as it undergoes difficult reforms.

鈥淚f I were Beijing, I would definitely be worried,鈥� he says.

What will Trump鈥檚 鈥淎merica first鈥� approach to foreign policy mean for China?

China undoubtedly sees a geopolitical opportunity to further establish itself as the key power in Asia Pacific region. Whereas Hillary Clinton was expected to double down on President Obama鈥檚 鈥減ivot鈥� to Asia, Trump may instead pull back. Such a decision would be welcomed in Beijing.

The Chinese foreign policy establishment, which considers the pivot a containment policy, has long wanted to upend the US-led postwar order in the region. If Trump follows through on his promise to聽reduce Washington's global strategic presence to focus on domestic issues, it may finally have its chance.聽

For starters, Trump鈥檚 isolationist policies could give China an opening to expand its influence in the South China Sea, where territorial disputes have prompted some countries to warm ties with Washington, and concerns over militarization of the region have deepened. American disengagement from the region could lead countries like Vietnam, Myanmar, and the Philippines to align themselves more closely with Beijing. 聽

But there are troubling prospects for China if Trump follows through on some of his more radical foreign policy proposals in the region. His threat to cut military support to South Korea and Japan, two longtime US allies, could lead them to develop their own nuclear arsenals to counter threats from North Korea and a nuclear-armed China.聽The prospect of a nuclear arms race in Asia would certainly unsettle Beijing.聽Some 54,000 US military personnel are currently stationed in Japan, while about 28,500 US troops are based in South Korea.

What will Trump do about human rights in China?

Trump has shown little interest in holding China accountable for its human rights record. During the campaign, he even for its violent 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Tiananmen Square, which led to hundreds and possibly thousands of deaths. His comments stand in sharp contrast those made by Mrs. Clinton, who has been an outspoken critic of China鈥檚 tight grip on civil society for decades.

Intolerance for dissent has intensified under President Xi Jinping. Hundreds of human rights activists and legal professionals have been detained or questioned since he took office in 2012. The most recent example of his tightening grip came on Monday, when China's legislature approved a cybersecurity law that critics warn will further restrict freedom of expression online.

鈥淚 really question how Trump will respond to all these issues,鈥� says Patrick Poon, a China researcher for Amnesty International. 鈥淲hat he has said so far raises a lot of concerns about how he will work on human rights in China.鈥�

If Trump exhibits little interest in China鈥檚 internal affairs, human rights activists worry that the Communist Party could also expand its repressive tactics in the restive regions of Tibet and Xinjiang.

What about the future of US-China cooperation on climate change?

Trump is a staunch denier of climate change. that it was a concept created by the Chinese. Although he later said it was a joke, he has repeatedly called climate change a 鈥渉oax,鈥� and appears eager to undo one of Mr. Obama鈥檚 proudest legacies.

That鈥檚 bad news for the future of global efforts aimed at tackling a warming climate and its effects. In 2014, Obama and Mr. Xi signed a landmark agreement to curb carbon emissions that set the stage for the international climate treaty negotiated last year in Paris. Trump has pledged to abrogate the agreement and聽鈥渃ancel鈥� the Paris accord, which went into force Nov. 3.

Environmentalists warn that Trump鈥檚 refusal to follow through on Obama鈥檚 pledge to reduce carbon emissions in the US, the world鈥檚 second-largest emitter behind China, could shatter聽the already fragile coalition. 聽

Regardless of Trump鈥檚 plans, Beijing is likely to go ahead with plans to cut carbon emissions, says Ma Jun, director of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs and one of China's most prominent environmentalists.

鈥淐hina has its own logic in dealing with this issue,鈥� he says, from reducing air and water pollution to curbing overcapacity in the steel industry. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think that is going to change.鈥�