海角大神

At this week鈥檚 elaborately staged North Korean Workers鈥� Party Congress, Kim Jong-un sought to project the image of a feared and respected world leader. It may have worked at home, but has done little to win over a frustrated ally 鈥� China 鈥� which remains alarmed by its neighbor鈥檚 nuclear weapons program.

In an editorial聽Wednesday, the state-run China Daily opined that North Korea鈥檚 economic and nuclear goals conflict with each other, and that Mr. Kim doesn鈥檛 seem to care.聽

鈥淗e appears unaware that his nuclear ambitions are ,鈥� stated the strongly worded editorial.聽聽鈥淭hey will not only exhaust his country's very limited resources, but will further isolate his country from the rest of the world, politically and economically.鈥�

There seems little, however, that Beijing is willing or able to do to persuade Pyongyang of this, beyond supporting international sanctions that have so far proved ineffective. Fearful that economic collapse in North Korea could dangerously destabilize its own border regions, China is wary of squeezing the errant Kim too hard.

Shi Yinghong, a professor of international relations at Beijing鈥檚 Renmin University, says that China鈥檚 leaders have no choice now but to recognize Kim as North Korea鈥檚 unchallenged leader. But that status, he predicts, doesn鈥檛 mean that China鈥檚 frosty relations with the Kim regime will soon thaw.聽

鈥淐hina will not recognize Kim鈥檚 demands to be recognized as nuclear power,鈥� says Professor Shi. 鈥淐hina will continue to implement strict and harsh sanctions on North Korea through the UN Security Council.鈥�

In recent days the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, has been awash with ceremonies, mass rallies, parades, and a party meeting that was closed to foreign reporters. It was the cloistered country鈥檚 first ruling party congress in 36 years, aimed at demonstrating Kim鈥檚 consolidation of power. To that end, the supreme leader delivered a nearly three-hour speech聽on Sunday, largely focused on economic goals.

Beijing played along with the political theater. Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a letter to Kim, congratulating him on adding another title to his name 鈥� chairman of the Workers鈥� Party of Korea. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman聽on Tuesday聽said China hopes to enhance its ties with the North.聽

Yet during his speech, Kim made clear that North Korea will continue its development of nuclear weapons following a series of nuclear weapons tests and missile launches earlier this year. Those tests have so infuriated China that, in March, it joined the United States in increasing sanctions on North Korea.

China鈥檚 reasons for opposing North Korea鈥檚 nuclear program have only partly to do with fears of an accident or rogue attack. China worries that North Korea鈥檚 nuclear weapons give the United States an excuse to bolster its military presence on the Korean peninsula, part of a larger policy of 鈥渃ontainment.鈥澛�

China is already worked up by US plans to deploy a missile defense system in South Korea. 鈥淚t only complicates the situation,鈥� says Wang Junsheng, research fellow at the National Institute of International Strategy, part of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, referring to the drills and proposed THAAD missile defense network.

Adam Cathcart, a specialist in China-North Korea relations at the University of Leeds in the UK, believes Beijing must be disappointed that Kim did not use the congress to send even the smallest signal of rapprochement.聽

鈥淚n all of that wash of words, there was almost nothing that would make Chinese officials think they had any influence over North Korea, or that things were going in the right direction,鈥� he says.聽

Since Kim came to power following the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, in 2011, Beijing and Pyongyang have barely been on speaking terms. Neither Kim nor China鈥檚 Xi have paid state visits to each other鈥檚 country. China last week did not send a delegation to the congress, as it did in 1980, apparently because it was not invited.

Up until two years ago, China had a friend in Jang Sung-taek, Kim鈥檚 powerful uncle. But the young Kim purged and executed Gen. Jang in 2014, leaving Beijing with little access to North Korea鈥檚 leadership elite.

One possible bright spot for Beijing is the recent elevation of Choe Ryong-hae to serve on the standing committee of the Workers鈥� Party politburo, says Mr. Cathcart. Choe attended last September鈥檚 military parade in Beijing that marked the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, and is thought to be on good terms with Chinese officials. 鈥淭he fact that he hasn鈥檛 yet been purged ... suggests there is some stability in place,鈥� Cathcart says.聽

For the past five years, Kim has advocated a policy of聽byongjin 鈥� parallel goals of growing North Korea鈥檚 economy and its nuclear capability. Yet without outside investment and assistance, analysts say North Korea will remain a backwater.

鈥淪ince Kim has taken office, byongjin hasn鈥檛 worked,鈥� says Dr. Wang. 鈥淭hese two policies are in conflict with each other.鈥澛�

For its part, the United States harbors doubts as to whether China is really enforcing old and new economic sanctions along its border with North Korea. The isolated regime relies on China for more than 80 percent of its foreign trade, and almost all its oil, which is not subject to the United Nations embargo.

Cathcart notes that the provinces in northeast China are in an economic slump, making them increasingly keen on trade with next-door North Korea. While China must create the appearance of enforcing the UN sanctions, he says, 鈥淚t is not going to strangle its neighbor. It wouldn鈥檛 be good for North Korea鈥檚 stability and it wouldn鈥檛 help China鈥檚 economy.鈥澛�