海角大神

China watchers have warned that Beijing and Taipei might be reentering a period of dangerous instability ever since it became clear that Taiwan鈥檚 pro-independence party would win聽Saturday鈥檚聽presidential election.

But in the days since Tsai Ing-wen鈥檚 landslide victory, China鈥檚 government has responded with restraint. It鈥檚 a sign that Beijing, at least for now, doesn鈥檛 want to further alienate Taiwanese, who voted by wide margins聽for Tsai鈥檚 Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

Denny Roy, an Asia security specialist at the East-West Center in Hawaii, says Beijing鈥檚 reaction suggests that a DPP victory, in itself, is not unacceptable to China鈥檚 leaders.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a relatively moderate reaction, which should inspire cautious optimism,鈥� Mr. Roy says in an e-mail.

But Roy and other analysts say the next several months will be critical for China-Taiwan relations. Beijing will be watching to see if Ms. Tsai and her party take any overtly pro-independence stands, as they have in the past. China鈥檚 leaders will also want Tsai to offer a statement that Beijing could interpret as being in line with its 鈥淥ne China鈥� policy.

鈥淲hat they are saying is that something close to 鈥極ne China鈥� has to come out of Tsai Ing-wen鈥檚 mouth eventually,鈥� says Shelley Rigger, a professor at Davidson College in North Carolina who studies Taiwanese politics.

Taiwan has been self-governing since the end of China鈥檚 civil war in 1949, but the Chinese Communist Party still sees it as territory that belongs to the mainland. Although the situation has been calm during the past eight years, the two sides exchanged fire as recently as the 1970s, and China still has hundreds of missiles pointed at the island.

On Saturday, Tsai, a former law professor, won the election with 56 percent of the vote. The DPP also won 68 of the 113 seats in聽 Parliament, giving the party legislative control for the first time ever.

It was a stunning defeat for the Kuomintang (KMT), the party founded by Chiang Kai-shek that has ruled Taiwan for all but eight of the last 66 years. It was also a repudiation of the policies of sitting KMT President Ma Ying-jeou, who sought to build closer economic ties with Beijing. Yet those ties have hurt Taiwan as China鈥檚 growth has slowed.

China looking for a signal

Richard Bush, director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, said Beijing might need to modify its approach to the DPP, given the size of the party鈥檚 victory. Although the DPP鈥檚 original charter made independence a core objective, Tsai has sidestepped that issue in recent years. During her campaign, Tsai said she would uphold the 鈥渟tatus quo,鈥� meaning that Taiwan would continue to govern itself but not seek formal independence.

鈥淚f Beijing can adjust its strategy and Tsai is willing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping half way, a mutual accommodation between them is not impossible,鈥� Mr. Bush wrote in a聽 鈥淏ut it will not be easy.鈥澛�

The uneasiness was reflected in Chinese state media after the election. A Xinhua news agency editorial聽on Sunday聽described Taiwan鈥檚 independence aspirations as 鈥減oison.鈥� A Global Times editorial described them as being 鈥渉allucinations.鈥�

By contrast, China鈥檚 Taiwan Office issued a muted statement, saying it took note of the election results and wanted to develop exchanges with 鈥渁ll parties and groups that recognize both sides of the strait are one China.鈥澛�

Tsai, who will become Taiwan鈥檚 first woman president, is slated to be inaugurated on聽May 20. Before the ceremony, China will likely put pressure on the United States and Taiwan for Tsai to clarify her position on what鈥檚 known as the 鈥�1992 Consensus,鈥� says Ms. Rigger of Davidson College.

The 1992 Consensus refers to a semi-official pact in which Chinese and Taiwanese representatives agreed that the mainland and Taiwan were part of 鈥淥ne China,鈥� with each side free to interpret the meaning of the term.

Code words in state media

While Tsai and the DPP have refused to recognize or support the pact, they will be under pressure to mouth words on mainland relations that Chinese leaders might accept.

In Beijing, Taiwan鈥檚 elections are sensitive and only partially reported in state media. The Communist Party is highly concerned about contagion. It doesn鈥檛 want people on the mainland aspiring for elections of top leaders, and it doesn鈥檛 want Taiwan to be recognized as a sovereign country.聽

As a result, the term 鈥減residential election鈥� is never used in state media, and 鈥淭aiwan region鈥� is employed instead of 鈥淩epublic of China.鈥� The government also blocks Taiwan-related comments on Weibo, China鈥檚 Twitter-like social media site.

Despite such restrictions, some netizens have still managed to share their views.

鈥淲ith the vote, people are treated like grandpas,鈥� wrote one Weibo user. 鈥淲ithout the vote, people are treated like grandsons.鈥�