海角大神

础蝉听Japan聽celebrated its Coming of Age national holiday yesterday, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made an apparently innocuous public visit, paying his respects at聽Tokyo鈥檚 Meiji Shrine.听

But for a newly elected prime minister keen to establish his nationalist credentials without further raising tensions with聽Japan鈥檚 Asian neighbors, the choice both had deliberate symbolism and may be a harbinger of the compromises Mr. Abe will be forced to make to his hawkish agenda 鈥� at least for now.听聽

Meiji Shrine is a popular sightseeing spot for local and overseas tourists, as well as a sacred site in聽Japan鈥檚 traditional Shinto religion, but it also honors the emperor in whose name聽Japan聽waged war across聽Asia聽in the middle of the 20th century. 聽聽

It remains however, a far less controversial destination than the nearby Yasukuni Shrine, where the souls of Class-A war criminals are said to be interred. Public visits to Yasukuni by Japanese politicians provoke angry reactions from Beijing and Seoul, and have generally been avoided by prime ministers since Junichiro Koizumi left office in 2006.

Abe's choice "was a kind of performance to the Japanese people,"聽says Tetsuro Kato, a professor of politics at聽Waseda聽University. "It鈥檚 very difficult to go to Yasukuni, and it鈥檚 not the first visit by a Japanese prime minister to Meiji.鈥澛犅�

In fact, the last Japanese prime minister to visit was Abe himself, during his short-lived first tenure between September 2006 and September 2007.听

Abe returned to office in December, following a huge electoral rejection of the left-leaning Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Abe ran a campaign full of promises to restore national pride and stand up to an increasingly powerful China. However, the rhetoric has been toned down since his victory, as he tries to find ways to keep the right wing of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) happy while not damaging relations with聽Japan鈥檚 Asian neighbors or the聽United States.

Many analysts predict that Abe鈥檚 nationalist tendencies will be kept in check, and he will concentrate on economic policy until he can win a majority in the Upper House elections, likely to happen in July.听

鈥淚f he wins a majority in the July elections, he may decide to visit Yasukuni on Aug. 15,鈥� says Professor Kato, referring to the anniversary of聽Japan鈥檚 defeat in World War II, a date when the nation鈥檚 prime ministers have traditionally chosen to pay their respects at the shrine.听聽

Aug. 15 is also a significant date for another pillar of Abe鈥檚 agenda that is sure to anger聽China聽and聽South Korea 鈥撀爃is pledge to scale back past apologies from the Japanese government for its wartime atrocities.

On Aug. 15, 1995, the 50th聽anniversary of聽Japan鈥檚 surrender, then-Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama聽聽for the suffering his nation had caused during the war.听Throughout his political career, Abe has talked about reviewing this declaration, along with聽听产测 Cabinet Secretary Yohei Kono, which acknowledged that thousands of women were used as sex slaves by the Japanese Imperial Army.听

While聽Japan聽is sometimes accused by victims of its imperial expansion of not having done enough to atone for its crimes, there are those on the ultra-nationalist right who believe its apologies have gone too far and damaged national pride.听

鈥淎be鈥檚 rise in the ranks of the right wing of the LDP had a lot to do with his reactions against the Kono and Murayama statements,"聽says Koichi Nakano, a professor of politics at聽Sophia聽University聽in聽Tokyo. "It is something of a pet project for him.鈥澛犅�

Even if Abe鈥檚 hand is strengthened by a strong performance in the summer election, however, he is likely to feel pressure from聽Japan鈥檚 biggest ally to keep his historical revisionism to himself.听聽

The聽US聽has overlooked revisionist pronouncements by Japanese prime ministers in the past in return for strengthening the military alliance with the US, Professor Nakano says. However, there is a growing realization in聽Washington聽that such statements heighten the risk of Japanese conflict with聽China 鈥撀爏omething the聽US聽could find itself drawn into.听

Another check on Abe鈥檚 nationalist tendencies will likely come from the Japanese people, who few observers think have moved as far to the right as their elected politicians.听 聽聽

鈥淎 gap has emerged between the Japanese politicians and the public, in that [the government] has shifted to the right, but the electorate really hasn鈥檛,鈥� Nakano says. 鈥淓ven Abe doesn鈥檛 believe he is back by popular demand.鈥澛�

Nevertheless, with more nationalist voices on the political stage, including the new Japan Restoration Party led by serial China-baiter and former聽Tokyo聽governor Shintaro Ishihara, some worry the entire political debate could be shifting to the right.听

Another concern is that growing income disparity in聽Japan聽may threaten the largely centrist consensus that has dominated the post-war period.听聽

鈥淲ith 16 percent of Japanese people now living in relative poverty, that can be a breeding ground for nationalism, as it鈥檚 easy to blame China or other outsiders for all their problems,鈥� Nakano says. 鈥淐hina聽and聽Japan聽are now so intertwined economically that it should keep things in perspective, but there are no guarantees.鈥�