海角大神

US and South Korean officials appear to disagree on one detail of the North Korean satellite that has nothing to do with any difference over what to do about it.

No sooner had major American television networks spread the word from their official sources that the satellite was 鈥渙ut of control鈥� than South Korea鈥檚 defense ministry came out with just the opposite view.

Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok, briefing South Korean reporters, told them that, 鈥渇or the time being,鈥� the satellite is 鈥渨orking normally.鈥�

That word seemed to snuff out the image of the satellite wobbling off course as it circles the earth in what the ministry says is an oval pattern. The satellite, says the ministry, takes 95.4 minutes to complete an orbit at a speed of about four miles per second.

The difference in analysis appears to revolve around what kind of orbit the satellite is in as it whirls about 300 miles above the earth鈥檚 surface.

Lee Sung-yoon, professor at Tufts University鈥檚 Fletcher School in Medford, Mass., argues that North Korea has 鈥渘ot yet developed a fully functioning satellite despite their apparent success in ballistic propulsion technology.鈥澛燳onhap, the South Korean news agency, reports that analysts at the Korean Aerospace Research Institute believe North Korean engineers aimed to put the satellite in a circular orbit, but that it鈥檚 now in an elliptical orbit. That doesn鈥檛 mean, they say, that it鈥檚 鈥渙ut of control.鈥�

The institute's Lee Kyu-su says the North Koreans could correct the course of the satellite, which weighs 100 kilograms (about 220 pounds), with the help of a small booster, which the North Koreans don鈥檛 have.

The big mystery, according to Mr. Kim at the defense ministry, is what the North Korean satellite is really doing up there. 鈥淚t is not yet known what kind of mission the satellite is conducting,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t usually takes two weeks to evaluate whether a satellite is successful.鈥�

US and South Korean officials are less concerned, however, about the equipment the satellite is carrying and what it鈥檚 supposed to accomplish than about the implications of the North鈥檚 ability to fire such an object from a long-range rocket or missile.

All that鈥檚 needed to turn the North Korean rocket into a vehicle for mass destruction, they say, is to substitute a warhead for the satellite.

The net result for US policy, predicts Nicholas Eberstadt at the American Enterprise Institute, is that 鈥�Washington will try to cut a deal with Pyongyang 鈥� again.鈥澛�

鈥淭he problem,鈥� says Mr. Eberstadt, a prolific author of studies on North Korea, 鈥渋s we don't have anything to offer that they really want 鈥� apart from South Korea.鈥�

However, according to experts visiting Seoul for a conference of the Asan Institute here, the North Koreans may not be all that advanced in their program,聽even though the three-stage rocket has a theoretical range of about 7,500 miles 鈥� enough to carry a warhead as far as the US West Coast.

Vassily Mikheev, from Russia鈥檚 Institute for World Economy and International Relations, says the reliance on old technology means the launch is 鈥渁 failure.鈥� Mr. Mikheev, at the Asan conference, says the Scud technology is 鈥渇or small missiles鈥� 鈥� and therefore not reliable when they鈥檙e bundled in three distinct stages.

鈥淭here will be discussion on how successful the launch was,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he Americans exaggerate to get funding for their own antimissile system.鈥�

Douglas Paal at the Carnegie Endowment disputes that view. 鈥淭he US has a genuine and reasonable concern that North Korea on its own may be able to threaten its neighbors,鈥� he says. North Korea, he says, 鈥渉as a nuclear capability.鈥�

Though China is clearly聽the country with the greatest influence over Pyongyang, Mr. Lee at the Fletcher School doubts if China can stop North Korea from pressing ahead with its missile and nuclear programs.

聽鈥淣orth Korea has never caved into Chinese pressure,鈥� he says.

鈥淲atch out,鈥� he advises,聽"for a follow-up provocation soon 鈥� in the next day or two"聽in the run-up to the first anniversary on Dec. 17 of the death of leader Kim Jong-il and South Korea鈥檚 presidential election two days later.

South Korean officials say they now are planning to bolster their antimissile system in view of the threat posed by North Korea, which purportedly has scores of mid and short-range missiles capable of easily striking all the Korean peninsula and Japan as well.

In the meantime, South Korean warships are scouring the Yellow Sea for debris from the first stage of the North Korean rocket that plummeted southwest of the Korean peninsula two minutes and 36 seconds after liftoff.

So far they鈥檝e spotted a fuel canister that divers are trying to recover from a depth of about 250 feet.聽 The North Koreans, says the defense ministry spokesman, are not going to get it back.

"We are not obligated to return it,鈥� he says, since it鈥檚 鈥渁n enemy's weapon.鈥�