海角大神

As the United Nations Security Council prepared to debate North Korea鈥檚 satellite launch earlier today, China signaled that it would likely veto any bid to punish its maverick ally with stiffer sanctions.

鈥淭he Security Council reaction should be prudent and moderate, conducive to peace and stability, avoiding an escalation of the situation,鈥� the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, Hong Lei, told reporters.

鈥淚 do not think China will support any effort to strengthen sanctions for fear that this would contribute to political instability in North Korea,鈥� explains Cai Jian, a North Korea expert at Fudan University in Shanghai. 鈥�Beijing will not take any concrete action.鈥�

Japan called an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council today after the North Korean rocket passed over its territory. Japan鈥檚 government said it 鈥渃annot tolerate鈥� the 鈥渆xtremely regrettable鈥� launch, and Tokyo was reportedly seeking wider sanctions against North Korea in retaliation.

The successful launch of the rocket, which appears to have put a satellite into orbit as planned, marks a major advance in Pyongyang鈥檚 program to build an intercontinental ballistic missile that might one day carry a nuclear weapon. Today's launch followed the failure of North Korea鈥檚 four previous efforts to make a multistage rocket fly.

Though North Korean media celebrated the event as an example of its peaceful use of space, the US condemned it as a violation of previous UN resolutions that ban North Korea from staging 鈥渁ny launch using ballistic missile technology.鈥�

鈥淭he international community must work in a concerted fashion to send North Korea a clear message that its violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions have consequences,鈥� the White House said in a statement.

Can China do much at the moment?

Beijing, however, was more restrained. Mr. Hong said that his government 鈥渆xpressed regret鈥� and noted that North Korea is 鈥渙bliged to abide by the relevant (UN) resolutions.鈥� But he refused to answer a reporter鈥檚 question as to whether Beijing regarded the launch as a violation of UN resolutions.

The UN imposed two sets of sanctions on North Korea, in 2006 and 2009, banning the sale of heavy military equipment, dual use items, and luxury goods, imposing financial sanctions on individual leaders and North Korean institutions, and allowing states to stop and search North Korean vessels believed to be violating sanctions.

China went along with these resolutions, but only because they were imposed as a response to nuclear tests, says Prof. Cai. 鈥淏eijing is more tolerant of missile tests, because the missiles have not yet been put to military use,鈥� he adds.

鈥淐hina cannot do much at the moment because, although it opposes North Korea鈥檚 challenges, it is more concerned with the country鈥檚 domestic political stability,鈥� Cai believes. Beijing sees North Korea as a strategic counterweight to US-backed South Korea, 鈥渟o it wants the current government in Pyongyang to survive.鈥�

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who took over from his father last December, is young and leads a government that has recently shown signs of divisions. 鈥淭here are still a lot of risks and uncertainties,鈥� says Cai. 鈥淚f the international community applies too much pressure, the regime might collapse.鈥�

Beijing also fears that a tough UN resolution might make the regional security situation worse, suggests Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-based analyst with the International Crisis Group, an international think tank.

鈥淣orth Korea could take additional steps that could cascade into further reactions,鈥� says Mr. Pinkston. In the past, Pyongyang has launched an artillery assault across its border with South Korea, sunk a South Korean naval vessel, tested nuclear devices, and launched missiles near its neighbors鈥� territory.

鈥淭here are a lot of things they could do 鈥� to express their displeasure with anything the UN might do,鈥� Pinkston points out.

And while China is North Korea鈥檚 only major ally, supplying fuel, food, and aid on which the Pyongyang government depends, 鈥渨e cannot impose our will鈥� on the independent-minded government, says Liu Xuecheng, an analyst at the China Institute for International Studies, a Beijing think tank associated with the Foreign Ministry.

Limited US options as well

US options appear limited, as officials ponder fresh ways of pressuring North Korea into abandoning its nuclear and missile ambitions. Six-party talks chaired by China and aimed at denuclearizing the Korean peninsula broke down four years ago after achieving very little, and sanctions have not deterred Kim Jong-un from testing his country鈥檚 missile technology.

When Washington sought to tighten the UN sanctions regime in the wake of a failed missile test last April, by adding North Korean banks, businesses, and institutions to the financial sanctions list, China vetoed all but three of the 40 entities that the US proposed.

As President Obama begins his second term of office, and new leaders take over in Japan and South Korea, where elections are due later this month, Wednesday鈥檚 rocket launch 鈥減oses a challenge to them,鈥� says Pinkston. 鈥淭hey are going to have to come up with new policy responses.鈥澛�