海角大神

President Obama鈥檚 warnings of dire 鈥渃onsequences鈥� if North Korea fires a long-range rocket next month encountered a quick and firm rebuff today from Pyongyang that underscored the North's determination to keep up its nuclear and missile programs in the face of widespread international condemnation.

聽As Obama flew home tonight after three days of intense talking about a range of nuclear issues at a conference of leaders of more than 50 countries, the sense among analysts here was that he had made little if any headway in tamping down North Korea鈥檚 nuclear ambitions.

A North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman, in a lengthy defense of the North's insistence on going through with the plan to fire the rocket, stressed that the reason is to put a satellite into orbit.

North Korea 鈥渨ill not give up the satellite launch for peaceful purposes,鈥� the spokesman was quoted as saying. The launch was 鈥渁 legitimate right of a sovereign state鈥� and was 鈥渆ssential for economic development.鈥�

The emphasis on 鈥渆conomic development鈥� appeared as a rebuff not only of President Obama but also of China鈥檚 President Hu Jintao and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Both of them, in talks with Obama on the sidelines of the two-day nuclear security summit, expressed concern about North Korea鈥檚 insistence on firing the rocket. They clearly did not have a rocket launch in mind when they urged the North to focus on economic development.

The global leaders agreed, after final sessions of the summit, on a declaration against all forms of nuclear terrorism that said not a word about the issues on the minds of all of them 鈥� the nuclear programs of North Korea and Iran.

鈥淐hina is certainly talking politely,鈥� says Han Sung-joo, a former foreign minister and ambassador to Washington, 鈥渂ut I don鈥檛 think China will actually do that鈥� 鈥� that is, risk upsetting the North Koreans by withholding some of the fuel and with which it keeps its North Korean protectorate alive.

Instead, Mr. Han predicts, 鈥淐hina will try to persuade South Korea to make it to six-party talks鈥� on North Korea鈥檚 nuclear program. The talks, hosted by China, including the United States, Japan, Russia, and the two Koreas, were last held in Beijing in December 2008 鈥� and are still regarded as essential in bringing about rapprochement on the Korean peninsula.

Sense that North will get away with launch

The irony is the abiding sense that North Korea can get away with firing the rocket, despite all protests, on the calculated gamble that all rhetoric will fail to gain significant traction in the run-up to the US presidential election in November and South Korea鈥檚 election in November.

鈥淣orth Korea has given a kind of dilemma to both the US and South Korea in that they will go ahead with the rocket launch,鈥� Han surmises.

The problem is how literally to view what people are calling 鈥渢he leap year agreement鈥� in which US envoy Glyn Davies and North Korean envoy Kim Kye-gwan, meeting in Beijing, came to three conclusions.

First, according to statements by both their governments, North Korea would observe a moratorium on tests of long-range missiles and nuclear devices. Second, the US would provide 240,000 tons of emergency food aid. Third, North Korea would admit inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for the first time since they were expelled in early 2009, shortly before North Korea last tested a long-range missile and then, in May 2009, conducted its second underground nuclear test.

If the US holds back on food aid, Han explains, that will 鈥渞educe the chances鈥� of the North鈥檚 inviting IAEA inspectors as promised. 鈥淣orth Korea can then put all the blame on the US,鈥� says Han, 鈥渁nd the US will have to find a way to punish North Korea.鈥�

Nor do analysts see much chance that China and Russia will risk their own relations with North Korea by more than token pleas for the North to give up the missile launch and return to six-party talks on its nuclear program.

鈥淐hina and Russia will put some modest pressure,鈥� says Paik Han-soon, director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute, a leading think tank here. 鈥淏ut they will not be taking concrete steps.鈥� They know very well, he says, that 鈥淣orth Korea will go its own way鈥� regardless of what anyone says to the North Koreans.

Despite all the rhetoric, the sense persists that North Korea will return to a talking mode and get the US to make good on the bargain after April 15 celebrations marking the centennial of the birth of founding leader Kim Il-sung, grandfather of the young new leader, Kim Jong-un. North Korea has said it will fire the rocket at around that time.

鈥淣orth Korea is not interested in what was discussed and achieved here,鈥� says Mr. Paik. 鈥淭hey cannot expect anything good to come out of this summit.鈥�

In fact, the stated purpose of the summit was to come up with ways to combat nuclear terrorism 鈥� especially the danger of highly enriched uranium falling into the hands of terrorists. The summit wound up with a communique reaffirming 鈥渙ur shared goals of nuclear disarmament, nuclear nonproliferation, and peaceful uses of nuclear energy.鈥�

One example was coordination on policies to reduce the amount of highly enriched uranium used for medical purposes. 鈥淲e are working very aggressively,鈥� said US Energy Secretary Steven Chu, 鈥渟o terrorists who might have access to this material cannot have access.鈥�

The dilemma posed by North Korea and Iran, however, overshadowed all the deliberations鈥搕hough the North was not mentioned in the formal sessions.

鈥淲ashington needs to manage the situation so they don鈥檛 completely destroy formal talks,鈥� says Choi Jin-wook, a senior researcher who specializes on North Korea at the Korea Institute of National Unification. 鈥淭hey will still need to get North Korea involved in that dialogue.鈥�