North Korea agrees to suspend nuclear activities
| Seoul, South Korea
The聽US聽announced a possible watershed agreement with聽North Korea聽today under which the聽US聽will supply food to聽North Korea聽while the North calls a moratorium on nuclear and missile programs and admits inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The new聽US聽envoy on聽North Korea, Glyn Davies, came through with the agreement in two days of talks in聽Beijing last week with聽North Korea鈥檚 veteran envoy Kim Kye-gwan, who had requested the meeting.
The deal at once raised hopes for genuine reversal of a confrontation that, if anything, had seemed to be worsening in recent days while聽North Korea聽fired off rhetorical barrages denouncing annual US-South Korean military exercises that began on Monday.
Analysts, however, are far from certain the agreement will really work, or whether聽North Korea聽will abide by all the pledges in the agreement.
聽鈥淚t鈥檚 worth giving it a try,鈥� says David Straub, former聽State Department聽Korea聽desk officer, but 鈥渁ll the steps are readily reversible.鈥�
Although Mr. Davies reaffirmed the聽US聽policy of not tying humanitarian aid to the nuclear issue, the crux of the agreement is that the US will supply 240,000 tons of 鈥渘utritional鈥� food aid and North Korea聽will call a moratorium on its entire nuclear program, including testing of nuclear devices and long-range missiles.
Optimism on hold
Mr. Straub, now associate director of Stanford University's Korea program, notes that North Korea could decide to test a long-range missile or conduct a third nuclear test at any time.听North Korea聽hinted at this possibility, says Straub, in its own announcement of the deal in which it states that it will keep its pledges as long as talks are productive.
A major question, says Straub, is the degree to which the rise of a new North Korean 鈥渟upreme leader,鈥� Kim Jong-un, played into the agreement.听Nonetheless, Mr. Kim is believed to have been involved in the agreement regardless of who in the North Korean hierarchy was responsible for it.
聽鈥淲e don鈥檛 know the leadership dynamics,鈥� says Straub. The test will be 鈥渨hether it鈥檚 possible to create聽a new cycle with the new government.鈥�
The White House also withheld optimism about the deal.
The聽US聽still has聽鈥減rofound concerns regarding North Korean behavior across a wide range of areas,鈥� said the official statement, 鈥渂ut today鈥檚 announcement reflects important, if limited, progress in addressing some of these.鈥�
North Korea聽failed to carry out complex agreements to halt its nuclear program reached at six-party talks in 2007. The talks, which had been ongoing since 2005, were last held in聽Beijing聽in December 2008.
South Korea鈥檚 reaction
South Korea鈥檚 conservative president, Lee Myung-bak, has been reluctant to provide aid for North Korea. After his inauguration four years ago, President Lee suspended almost all aid to聽North Korea, reversing the decade-long Sunshine policy of reconciliation. He demanded North Korea聽first give up its nuclear program.听
However, the Foreign Ministry said 鈥渢oday鈥檚 announcements faithfully reflect the measures developed through close consultation,鈥� including Mr. Lee鈥檚聽meetings with President Obama.
The agreement, said the South Korean statement, has 鈥渓aid the foundation for our efforts toward comprehensive and fundamental resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue to move forward.鈥澛犅�
Reason to believe the North this time?
The fact that聽North Korea聽requested the talks is seen as reason to believe that聽North Korea, for the near future, will want to carry out the deal under which IAEA inspectors will again enter the nuclear complex at Yongbyon.听
North Korea鈥檚 five-megawatt reactor is believed to have produced enough plutonium for up to a dozen warheads, and the North has been building a facility for producing warheads with highly enriched uranium.
North Korea聽has conducted two underground nuclear tests, in 2006 and 2009, and also test-fired its long-range Taepodong missile in 1998 and in 2009. The UN Security Council imposed severe sanctions on trade with聽North Korea聽after the second missile and nuclear tests.
The State Department avoided any sign of lifting sanctions, which it said were not 鈥渢argeted against the people鈥� of North Korea, but said talks would begin soon on implementing the promise of food aid.
A major consideration is whether the aid will go to those who need it most or will be diverted to the North Korean armed forces as well as government and party officials. The聽US聽characterizes the aid as 鈥渘utritional,鈥� meaning that it will consist of items needed by mothers and children, not rice rations for soldiers.
鈥淭he food aid is badly needed,鈥� says Straub. 鈥淭here are lots of hungry North Korean children.鈥�
Davies briefed South Korea鈥檚 envoy Lim Sung-nam on the agreement in a stopover here last weekend, but the White House and State Department waited until today apparently to make sure South Korea had no objections.
