海角大神

聽It is clearly not the prospect that Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping may sign a deal to buy more American soybeans that lends significance to his US tour this week.

聽聽聽Instead, this is a mood-setting visit, giving President Obama a chance to take the measure of the man most likely to lead China for the next 10 years, and offering Mr. Xi an opportunity to get a better feel for America.

聽聽聽The trip is also important to Xi for his own political reasons. He is generally expected to become the head of the ruling Communist party next autumn, and to take over the Chinese presidency early next year.

鈥淗is capacity to deal with the US in a way that induces respect and to show that he can handle the US effectively 鈥� is extremely important鈥� to his peers in Beijing, says Kenneth Lieberthal, director of the China Center at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

聽聽聽And as the US and China clash over a wide range of political and economic issues, 鈥渢heir two leaders need to feel they have a good read on each other at a personal and political level,鈥� Professor Lieberthal adds.

聽聽聽Officials and analysts on both sides of the Pacific point to a fundamental flaw in the most important bilateral relationship in the world: Neither side trusts the other.

聽聽聽鈥淭he trust deficit sums up a very clear fact,鈥� Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai said here last week. 鈥淭he level of mutual trust between China and the United States lags behind what is required for the further expansion of our bilateral relationship. Vice President Xi鈥檚 visit will present a very important opportunity to further enhance our mutual trust.鈥�

Iran, currency, South China Sea

聽聽聽The list of policy issues over which Beijing and Washington differ is long and varied. It includes how to handle Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, the value of the Chinese currency, the Renminbi, how to deal with the Syrian government, trade disputes, investment opportunities for US firms in China and the roles both sides want to play in the South China Sea.

聽聽聽鈥淭he relationship is not in good shape and there is a lot of competition in various spheres,鈥� says David Shambaugh, a China expert at George Washington University in Washington.

聽聽聽Neither side expects any breakthroughs from Xi鈥檚 talks at the White House, the State Department, the Pentagon, and Congress. Xi is still only the vice president, his portfolio does not include foreign affairs, and he will not want to make any compromises that might make him appear soft on Washington before his accession to the pinnacle of power.

聽聽聽At the same time, many of the differences between the US and China 鈥渃annot be resolved; they can only be managed and controlled,鈥� says Shi Yinhong, a professor of international politics at Renmin University in Beijing.

A little chemistry, please

聽聽聽One obstacle to better ties, however, has been the lack of chemistry between US leaders and outgoing President Hu Jintao, a stiff figure wary of going beyond his prepared talking points who is seemingly impervious to personal overtures from US presidents.

聽聽聽鈥淧ast Chinese leaders have tried to show an image of Communist party leaders as just average people, but the incumbent has not been very successful in this effort,鈥� says Jin Canrong, deputy head of the American Studies Research Center at Renmin University.

聽聽聽Xi, on the other hand, is expected to present a more affable, spontaneous, and self-confident image of a man more at ease in the world outside the Chinese leadership鈥檚 government compound.

聽聽聽鈥淗e wants to get to know American leaders, and if possible make friends with them,鈥� says Professor Jin.

聽聽聽Though a 鈥減rinceling鈥� 鈥� the son of a revolutionary veteran and former vice premier 鈥� Xi spent six years during the Cultural Revolution as one of the educated young people whom Mao Zedong sent to the countryside. That experience in a poverty-stricken village 鈥渉elped him to know ordinary people鈥檚 daily life,鈥� says Jin. 鈥淚 tend to believe he does understand ordinary people鈥檚 feelings.鈥�

A return visit to Muscatine, Iowa

聽聽聽Xi will likely seek to polish his 鈥渄own home鈥� image during a stopover in Muscatine, Iowa, where he led a provincial animal feed delegation in 1985 and stayed a couple of nights. His handlers are also trying to fit in a basketball game during the vice president鈥檚 visit to Los Angeles.

聽聽聽If that goes down well with the American public, and if Xi hits it off with Mr. Obama, 鈥淚 hope he will come across as someone we can do business with, with confidence,鈥� says Lieberthal.

聽聽聽鈥淕ood personal relations cannot solve everything, but they can鈥檛 hurt when it comes to the big issues that are hard to manage and they could help on issues that don鈥檛 have to be so confrontational, such as climate change,鈥� says Jeffrey Wasserstrom, a historian of China at the University of California in Irvine.

聽聽聽He cautions against unrealistic expectations, though. Since Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping captured America鈥檚 imagination by donning a 10-gallon hat at a Texas rodeo in 1979, 鈥渢he American desire to find a Chinese leader who understands us has been a longstanding fantasy,鈥� Professor Wasserstrom warns. 鈥淏ut it hasn鈥檛 ever come true.鈥澛�