海角大神

The oldest son of the late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is casting doubts on his late father鈥檚 choice of his youngest brother as 鈥済rand successor,鈥� but that鈥檚 not dimming the extravaganza of praise within North Korea for Kim Jong-un as 鈥渟upreme leader.鈥�

The display of Kim Jong-un riding a white horse and shaking hands with soldiers, as well as reports by the North Korean media that he recommended a military response 2-1/2 years ago to any US attempt to obstruct a missile test, convince analysts that the young man is sure to enjoy the trappings of power for the foreseeable future.

鈥淭he messages the North Korean leadership has tried to project are stability, continuity, and control,鈥� says Scott Snyder, senior fellow for Korea Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.聽But, he聽adds, 鈥淚 do not know what is happening under the surface or if these messages reflect reality in Pyongyang.鈥�

Kim鈥檚 oldest brother, Kim Jong-Nam, living in the gambling enclave of Macao on the southeastern coast of China, hinted at the lack of confidence behind the campaign to glorify the new leader, according to a Japanese newspaper.

Rejected by his father as a successor more than 10 years ago, Kim Jong-nam reportedly talked about the buildup of his brother while expressing misgivings. Mr. Kim reportedly told the Tokyo Shimbun in an e-mail that he expected 鈥渢he existing ruling elite to follow in the footsteps of my father while keeping the young successor as a symbolic figure."

It was 鈥渄ifficult,鈥� he was quoted as saying in a burst of frankness that he has displayed in earlier encounters with the Japanese media, 鈥渢o accept a third-generation succession under normal reasoning."

Kim Jong-nam was quoted in a newly published book by Japanese journalist聽Yoji Gomi as having been still more critical.In the book, entitled聽"My father聽Kim Jong-Il聽and Me," he said, "North Korea is very unstable" and聽"the power of the military has become too strong." Jong-nam, communicating in Korean by e-mail and in interviews with Mr. Gomi last year, is quoted as saying,聽"If the succession ends in failure, the military will wield the real power for sure."

That perspective from a close but clearly disillusioned relative jibes with the views of foreign analysts who wonder how long Kim Jong-un can last 鈥� or whether he can possibly take charge of his own destiny and that of his people.

鈥淭he efforts to put Kim Jong-un front and center immediately reflects a rushed succession process,鈥� says Victor Cha, who directed Asian issues on the National Security Council during the presidency of George W. Bush.聽Mr. Cha, now a professor at Georgetown University in Washington, predicts that what he calls 鈥渁 Potemkin leadership transition鈥� in Pyongyang 鈥渨ill likely run into problems.鈥�

Too much forced mourning

One sign of potential problems are reports, picked up by South Korean media, that much of the mass public mourning for Kim Jong-il was forced.

鈥淢ost who participated in events during the mourning period were indeed merely going through the motions,鈥� says Daily NK, a website here that reports regularly on North Korean news attributed to 鈥渋nternal sources,鈥� mainly contacts with cellphones linked to Chinese networks. 鈥淪ources say that many of those who did cry were forcing tears, fearing later repercussions if they did not.鈥�

North Korea denies, however, that those who failed to show their grief have been arrested in a move that some analysts believe could turn into a purge of potential foes of the regime. 鈥淪purious claims of coerced sadness and stage-management can no longer be tolerated,鈥� said Pyongyang鈥檚 Korean Central News Agency.

Such rhetoric arouses little concern among analysts who see it as part of the effort to bolster Kim Jong-un in an atmosphere of possible insecurity about what鈥檚 really going on. 鈥淣orth Korea will stay the course for the time being,鈥� says Mark Fitzpatrick, a senior fellow at the Institute for International Security Studies in London. 鈥淭he natural inclination is to continue the policies of the dearly beloved鈥� 鈥� a reference to Kim Jong-il, often referred to in the North Korean media as 鈥渄ear leader.鈥�

While the North Korean media carry daily reports of the accomplishments of Kim Jong-un, the sense is that trouble lies ahead.

鈥淪o far was the easy bit,鈥� says Aidan Foster-Carter, honorary fellow at Leeds University in England. 聽鈥淔or the funeral, they had a script. From here on, it gets harder. They鈥檙e improvising.鈥�

Mr. Foster-Carter sees 鈥渦ncertainty at home and abroad鈥� as inevitable considering Kim Jong-un鈥檚 youth and lack of experience.

鈥淭here must have been a prior decision to boost him rather than rule by committee,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hat will be hard to bring off. He鈥檚 just a kid. He鈥檚 done nothing. Making up a story will fool no one.鈥� His conclusion: 鈥淭he uncertainty is real.鈥�

Meanwhile, Kim Jong-nam, spotted at Beijing International Airport by a South Korean professor, did not seem overly concerned about the passing of his father, whose funeral he is not known to have attended, or his role as big brother.

鈥淥h, [that鈥檚] nature,鈥� was his response to Park Seung-jun of Incheon University when asked if he was shocked by his father鈥檚 death, according to Yonhap, the South Korean news agency.聽聽His answer to whether he would take care of his younger brothers and sister, according to Korean tradition, was distinctly unenthusiastic: 鈥淚 guess so.鈥澛�