海角大神

In the space of a week, Taiwan has both criticized and cozied up to the US, highlighting an effort to appear strong at home in the face of a rising China while not isolating its staunchest arms supplier.

Taiwan鈥檚 deputy Defense minister criticized the United States government for declining to sell it 66 advanced F-16 C/D fighter jets, but called Washington鈥檚 proposal to upgrade older F-16s a welcome step toward keeping the island strong against Beijing鈥檚 fast-growing military.

On one side, Taiwan must accept whatever US officials offer it militarily, as no other country will supply it with weapons to defend itself against China, a political rival of more than 60 years, experts say.

On the other, they say, Taiwan must keep pressure on Washington to buy more arms if it is to confidently face China in trade talks and impress voters at home. Over the past five years, Taiwan has issued increasingly impassioned pleas for the F-16 sale.

But, 鈥渨hat they really think is in a black box,鈥� says Lin Chong-pin, strategic studies professor at Tamkang University in Taiwan.

The US offer to upgrade the Taiwan鈥檚 older-model F-16 A/Bs marks 鈥減rogress鈥� in the 鈥渋ncremental process鈥� of improving its military, Deputy Defense Minister Andrew Yang said in a phone interview Saturday.

But, days later, Mr. Yang griped to a US-Taiwan defense industry conference in the United States that Washington had caved to pressure from Beijing in putting off the request for more jets.

After the announcement in Washington, Taiwan鈥檚 Defense ministry noted it appreciated the upgrade offer but that it still wanted the late-model F-16s, among other weaponry, as the US had not ruled out a sale later.

鈥淭he Ministry of National Defense will continuously communicate with relevant US agencies to urge the approval鈥� of new arms, the statement said.

The island government is also seen as torn between an arms strategy that answers demands at home but also fosters better ties with China.

Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou鈥檚 government has lobbied hard for the domestically popular F-16 C/D sale in part to appear tough on China ahead of the Jan. 14 presidential election, analysts say.

The Defense ministry said in its statement that Mr. Ma had arranged procured arms packages worth $18.3 billion 鈥� more than either of the two previous presidents were able to procure.

鈥淢a鈥檚 government is not really serious about getting more defensive weapons from the US because he doesn鈥檛 want to irritate the PRC [China],鈥� says Shane Lee, political scientist with Chang Jung 海角大神 University in Taiwan. 鈥淏ut for average Taiwanese people, we鈥檙e very concerned that we鈥檙e far behind China in military terms.鈥�

Ma鈥檚 government has eased tension with China since 2008 through regular talks on trade and economic issues, reducing any immediate military threat even as Beijing outspends the island on defense.

China protested to the United States, however, after US officials proposed a $5.85 billion weapons package to Taiwan, mainly upgrades to an F-16 A/B fleet totaling 145 planes sold since 1992.

Beijing has claimed sovereignty over self-ruled Taiwan since the 1940s, when Chiang Kai-shek鈥檚 Nationalists lost the Chinese civil war to Mao Zedong鈥檚 forces, and fled to the island. Beijing has never renounced the threat of force if Taiwan moves toward formal independence.

China is likely to respond to the US move with public protests, analysts say, adding that China鈥檚 protest over the F-16 upgrade proposal will fizzle, but that any sale of F-16s would be a major setback in Sino-US relations.

The US considers China a crucial economic partner and hopes to avoid a repeat of January 2010, when Beijing suspended military exchanges after the US proposal of a $6.4 billion arms package for Taiwan.

The US has been Taiwan's staunchest informal ally for 60 years, with a congressional act that allows it to help with the island鈥檚 military defense.

US officials argue that upgrading Taiwan鈥檚 existing fighters will effectively be the same as selling it new ones, with Taiwan calling them just 80 percent as good.

鈥淧rivately, at least, they will keep asking for the C/Ds because they have to show the voters 鈥榳e鈥檙e doing our best, we are for defense,鈥� 鈥� Mr. Lin says.

The public鈥檚 agenda also may have diplomatic and military merit. A senior US envoy to Taiwan has said a strong defense gives Taiwan more weight at the economic bargaining table even when ties are tighter.

鈥淭his, I think, is something the current government has been trying, and the opposition, if it returns to power some day, will continue to pursue advanced weapons from the United States,鈥� says Raymond Wu, managing director of the Taipei-based political risk consultancy e-telligence.