South Korea's Lee inches closer to high-level talks with North Korea
| Seoul, South Korea
South Korea鈥檚 President Lee Myung-bak said Tuesday he would deign to 鈥渉old a summit鈥� with North Korea鈥檚 leader Kim Jong-il 鈥渋f necessary鈥� amid 鈥渉igh hopes for a change in attitude鈥� after months of confrontation.
President Lee, in a lengthy television interview on the eve of the five-day lunar new year holiday, said North Korea must show its 鈥渟eriousness鈥� and stop 鈥渕ilitary provocations鈥� 鈥� the type of remark that drew strong denunciations from Pyongyang earlier in his presidency.
This time, however, South Korea promptly followed up by agreeing on North Korea鈥檚 proposal for preliminary 鈥渨orking level鈥� talks next week between military officers. The talks, at the truce village of Panmunjom on the line between the two Koreas, would be the first since South and North Korean colonels met briefly on Sept. 30.
This time, the colonels, when they meet on Feb. 8, will have more to talk about. They will be preparing for crucial negotiations between defense ministers as requested by North Korea last month.
Lee's remarks implied that South Korea not only remained open to dialogue with the North, but might even consider significant aid for the North鈥檚 dilapidated economy.
If North Korea 鈥渟eeks sincere dialogue rather than military provocations,鈥� Lee said, 鈥渨e can have dialogue and resume economic exchanges鈥� 鈥� and also hold six-party talks.
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North Korea has been calling for renewal of six-party talks 鈥渨ithout preconditions鈥� for several weeks in an effort to tone down the level of confrontation engendered by its bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island in the Yellow Sea on Nov. 23. Two South Korean marines and two civilians died in that attack, which the North said was a defensive response to what it claimed were marine artillery exercises in its waters. North Korea has not said, however, if it鈥檚 willing to negotiate an end to its nuclear program as agreed on Sept. 19, 2005, after the first round of the talks in Beijing.
Bait of economic aid
The bait of economic aid was believed to be growing more and more tempting for North Korea while the North suffers through a particularly harsh winter in which temperature have plunged to record lows. North Korea also is seen as wanting to stock up on food donations from foreign countries while preparing to celebrate the 100-year anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, who ruled for nearly 50 years before dying in 1994 and leaving his son, Kim Jong-il to rule.
"It seems they鈥檙e very much in need of goods,鈥� says Kim Bum-soo, editor of a conservative magazine here. 鈥淭hey want to be able to show visible progress to their people.鈥� North Korea may also be concerned, he says, about wanting to put on a good show for Kim Jong-Il鈥檚 birthday on Feb. 16.
US pressure
The sense among analysts here is that the US is pressuring its South Korean ally while China pressures its North Korean ally to negotiate. 鈥淭he US is asking South Korea to talk,鈥� says Mr. Kim. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 for sure.鈥�
South Korea, however, may make demands that North Korea is not prepared to meet.
A senior official on President Lee鈥檚 staff said the South Korean colonel in the preliminary talks will demand an apology for the Yeonpyeong Island shelling and also for the sinking in March of the South Korean navy corvette the Cheonan in which 46 sailors died. North Korea denies any role in that episode in which a South Korean investigation concluded a North Korean midget submarine fired a torpedo, splitting the Cheonan in two.
Analysts say the talks could stil break down over the apology.
"It is likely that the upcoming North-South Korean military talks won't get very far," say David Straub, a former senior US diplomat here. "The chances of North Korea acknowledging much less taking responsibility for the Cheonan sinking is next to zero."
Even if North Korea expresses regret about the deaths of civilians, says Mr. Straub, the North could blame the South "for not acceding to North Korean demands about the Northern Limit Line" 鈥� the marker on maps below which the South bans North Korean vessels.
South Korea would find that position "deeply offensive," Straub adds, "North Korea clearly is engaged in a major charm offensive" 鈥� and may "make nice for a while longer even if the South shows little or no flexibility about the responsibility issue."
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