North Korea happy after China just bailed them out, say analysts
North Korea鈥檚 small ruling class probably has reason to rejoice even if no one seems to know if the Workers鈥� Party is about to name new leaders, which presumably would include Kim Jong-il鈥檚 third son and heir apparent, Kim Jung-un.
Long-time Korea watchers offer that view after recent uncertainty as to whether the party is staging its long-awaited 鈥渃onference of delegates,鈥� the first such gathering in more than 40 years.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 hunkering down,鈥� says John Park at the US Institute of Peace in Washington. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a celebration, and the celebration is well founded.鈥�
Mr. Park, who directs the institute鈥檚 Korea working group, believes Kim Jong-il solidified deals with China鈥檚 President Hu Jintao during visits to China this spring and again last month that are buoying the country鈥檚 devastated economy and bolstering the tight-knit circle around him.
鈥淗u Jintao has just bailed out North Korea,鈥� says Park, citing deals in economic development, tourism, and education that manage to circumvent the resolution adopted by the United Nations Security Council after North Korea鈥檚 second underground nuclear test in May 2009.
Although the relatively small number of people who run the country and control the economy are the main beneficiaries, he says, 鈥渢he market benefits from cooperation with the Chinese side.鈥�
Trickle-down economics, North Korea-style
In a North Korean version of trickle-down economics, Park finds 鈥渇ormal and nonformal trade鈥� going on in a system in which free markets are inevitable regardless of regulations banning or highly limiting their activities.
鈥淢arkets are opening up,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t looks like the Chinese are moving in,鈥� exporting a wide range of items, providing food, fertilizer and other necessities and investing in distant mountainous regions rich in coal and other minerals.
Ha Tae-keung, president of Open Radio for North Korea, which broadcasts news and views into the North for two hours every day, credits the deals struck by Kim Jong-il with forcing the North to ease up on customs control.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 why businessmen feel it鈥檚 easier to trade with China,鈥� says Mr. Ha, whose station picks up information from cellphone contacts inside the North, 鈥淏ecause of loose customs control, the markets are more open.鈥�
Food shortages still abound
The image of somewhat improving conditions, however, is highly anecdotal, say analysts, and does not reflect the suffering of a majority of the country鈥檚 24 million people, always short on food, medicine, and other daily necessities. Life inside North Korea differs widely depending on the geographical setting as well as the social and economic class.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of conflicting information coming out of Pyongyang,鈥� says L. Gordon Flake, executive director of the Mansfield Foundation in Washington. 鈥淵ou have a sense the government is reining in a lot of individuals in preparation for the succession.鈥� 鈥� that is, the presumed eventual takeover by Kim Jong-un of the power held by his father.
Motorcycles are replacing bicycles inside the capital, inhabited mostly by privileged people who owe their livelihoods to one of the three central power groupings 鈥� the Workers鈥� Party, the government, or the armed forces. Kim Jong-il dominates the power structure as chairman of the national defense commission 鈥� and also is general secretary of the party.
Officially, says Mr. Flake, a long-time analyst of events and trends in North Korea, the North has reverted to the economic policies of the 1960s when Kim Jong-il鈥檚 father, the long-ruling Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994, was holding sway. A number of ministers, now in their 80s, he says, have been making 鈥渙ld school socialist moves,鈥� since the failure of a plan to revalue the currency that was introduced late last year.
Still, he says, inside Pyongyang cellphones have become a common sight since Orascom, the big Egyptian company, got the contract two years ago to introduce mobile telephone service. By now, 250,000 North Koreans are said to have cellphones.
Talk of economic change
鈥淩ecent videos show they鈥檝e eased up considerably,鈥� says David Straub, associate director of Korean studies at Stanford鈥檚 Shorenstein Asia-Pacific research center. 鈥淭hey are at least talking more about trade and investment.鈥� Still, says Mr. Straub, a former U.S. diplomat in Seoul, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 see any fundamental change in North Korea鈥檚 economic policies.鈥�
David Kang, professor of international relations at the University of Southern California, sees the people living in provinces along the Chinese border as benefiting the most from shifting policies. 鈥淚f you are caught in illegal trading, you can bribe your way out,鈥� says Mr. Kang. 鈥淭here鈥檚 an active black market.鈥�
The cross-border trade is vital to the two Chinese provinces across the Yalu River border on the west and the Tumen River border on the east. 鈥淭he Chinese are queuing up for hundreds of millions of dollars in investment,鈥� he says.
'Rising generation' of leaders
In the bargain with China, Kang is confident that Kim Jong-il has won Chinese approval of Kim Jong-un as his heir. The evidence, he says, is that Kim Jong-il and Hu Jintao agreed on a statement referring to 鈥渢he rising generation of the Workers鈥� Party.鈥�
That phrase echoes similar wording that鈥檚 been appearing on billboards and in the North Korean media. With delegates to the conference of the Workers鈥� Party believed to have already arrived in Pyongyang, the delay in staging the event has set off endless speculation, none of it substantiated, as to the reasons.
Among other theories is that Kim Jong-il is recovering from medical setbacks suffered during his recent visit to northeastern China, that flooding has prevented delegates from getting to Pyongyang and that Kim Jong-il is fending off grumbling within the party ranks about his choice of his third son as his successor.
鈥淭he temptation is for everyone to lead to conclusions as to what鈥檚 going on,鈥� says David Straub. 鈥淚 take all these unsourced media reports very gingerly.鈥�
From what he鈥檚 read in the North Korean media, Park senses 鈥渁 great deal of disappointment that the party conference is delayed.鈥� Still, 鈥渢he conference is going to happen,鈥� he says, citing the presence for the past two or three weeks of military units outside the city waiting to parade in celebration.
If North Korea is in a mood for celebrating, however, one aspect of life there has not changed 鈥� the draconian system in which thousands are sent to prison for political crimes and public executions are commonplace.
鈥淭here have been more public executions than before,鈥� says Ha Tae-keung. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 because, before the succession, they鈥檙e afraid an antisocial situation will break out.鈥� Most recently, he says, 鈥漌e got news of the execution of one person trading in South Korean CDs, and some woman was executed for using a Chinese cellphone.鈥�
IN PICTURES: Cult of Personality: Inside North Korea
