What's behind North Korea's new 'peace offensive'?
| Washington
North Korea is in the throes of a new "peace offensive" that analysts say could lead to the resumption of six-party talks on its nuclear program.
The North Korean regime kicked off the offensive with a carefully modulated New Year鈥檚 message of reconciliation with the US that appears as a follow-up to US envoy Stephen Bosworth鈥檚 mission to Pyongyang in early December.
The statement calls for establishing 鈥渁 lasting peace system on the Korean peninsula鈥� in order to 鈥渕ake it nuclear-free through dialogue," and it contains none of the invective or recriminations that often characterize North Korea鈥檚 statements regarding the US. Rather, it advocates for 鈥渁n end to the hostile relationship鈥� with the US while asking North Koreans 鈥渢o defend with our very lives the leadership鈥� of Kim Jong-il.
As if to provide sound effects for the message, about 100,000 people demonstrated in Pyongyang on Saturday, shouting support for the regime's New Year's policies, according to Yonhap, the South Korean news agency.
The question, however, is whether the latest rhetoric represents any shift in policy 鈥� or just a new approach.
Kim Tae-woo, veteran analyst with the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis, says the North鈥檚 latest tactics are 鈥渁 continuation of the shift鈥� that began with the death in August of South Korea鈥檚 former president, Kim Dae-jung, an ardent advocate of North-South reconciliation. North Korea sent a team of mourners that attended Mr. Kim鈥檚 funeral in Seoul and met with South Korea鈥檚 conservative President Lee Myung-bak, until then a special target of the North鈥檚 media.
"That鈥檚 when they began the North Korean version of the two-track approach," says Kim Tae-woo. "They separate dialogue from nuclear development."
North Korea鈥檚 good-will gestures don鈥檛 have 鈥渁nything to do with the nuclear program,鈥� he says.
So will the north give up nuclear weapons?
While the New Year鈥檚 message may be a sign of the North鈥檚 willingness to return to six-party talks, last held in Beijing in December 2008, it bears no clue as to whether the North would abandon its nuclear program before attaining a number of other goals.
These include diplomatic relations with the US and the promise of massive quantities of aid to meet the energy requirements needed to jumpstart its dilapidated economy. Pointedly, the statement did not mention a role for South Korea, which North Korea prefers to bypass or subordinate in talks on the nuclear issue.
鈥淭hey still show pressure toward South Korea,鈥� says Kim Tae-woo at the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis.
Whither the 'grand bargain'?
The institute called for a summit between Kim Jong-il and President Lee Myung-bak to discuss Mr. Lee鈥檚 proposal for a 鈥済rand bargain鈥� in which the North would get vast amounts of aid for giving up its its nuclear weapons. The proposal for a Kim-Lee summit evokes memories of the June 2000 and Oct. 2007 summits at which Kim hosted Kim Dae-jung and then Roh Moo-hyun, Kim Dae-jung鈥檚 successor as president.
North Korea did not comment on the idea of another North-South summit but has previously heaped scorn on Lee鈥檚 鈥済rand bargain.鈥�
If nothing else, however, North Korea鈥檚 New Year鈥檚 message may be good news for Robert Park, the American missionary who crossed the frozen Tumen River border from China into North Korea on Christmas eve. Mr. Park bore a message of peace and good-will for Kim Jong-il 鈥� along with demands for release of political prisoners and opening of borders.
Park is expected to become a pawn in negotiations as the US presses North Korea to return to negotiations. Mr. Bosworth in Pyongyang discussed a wide range of issues that he said could all be covered during multilateral talks.
* The original version of this story misstated the date of Mr. Park's trip across the Tumen River as well as the name of Kim Dae-jung's successor.
