An election in Nicaragua that could further dim democracy
| Mexico City
Under the wing of Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua buzzed with revolutionary promise at the height of the Cold War.
The former guerrilla fighter听and his Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) toppled the Somoza dictatorship in 1979, and won presidential elections five years later 鈥� bringing democracy to the Central American nation. At the time, foreign journalists flocked to Managua to cover the historic transition.
Forty years later, Mr. Ortega leads Nicaraguans to the polls once again. But there is no international press corps here now. There are no rivals either.
Why We Wrote This
Like so much else, the politics of Nicaragua can feel like d茅j脿 vu. In many ways Daniel Ortega has become the dictator he once toppled 鈥� and he鈥檚 put the international community on edge again.
Even before Nicaraguans vote Nov. 7, the results are already clear: Mr. Ortega is running essentially uncontested for his fourth consecutive presidential term after an unprecedented crackdown on opposition candidates and press freedom this summer.
This race marks a watershed moment for the country, not because of the outcome but for where Nicaragua goes next. The opposition and international community face the task of reestablishing democracy here, and the stakes are high. Just as the Sandinistas inspired a generation of revolutionary leaders in the 1980s, today鈥檚 FSLN could embolden authoritarianism in the region.
鈥淯nlevel playing fields are common in Latin America, but still not to this level,鈥� says Tiziano Breda, Central America analyst for the International Crisis Group. 鈥淭here is not even a playing field.鈥�
鈥淚f there is no robust and coordinated response,鈥� he adds, 鈥渋t will set a dangerous precedent for the region where other authoritarian wannabes are not lacking.鈥�
鈥淣othing Sandinista left鈥�
Once a beacon for the left, Mr. Ortega has moved far from those ideals. He once vowed to free Nicaragua from the shackles of a corrupt dynasty that funded its lavish lifestyle at the expense of poor Nicaraguans. Now, he lives as lavishly and has appointed his family to top leadership posts, including his wife, Rosario Murillo, who is vice president. Nicaragua remains the nation in the Western Hemisphere.
Since first returning to power in 2006 elections, Mr. Ortega has reformed the constitution to allow reelection and stacked the judicial system with loyalists. When he faced a mass anti-government protest movement听in 2018, he sent police to violently repress it. International human rights groups call that crackdown a crime against humanity.听
It was also a betrayal of the 1979 revolution, says Gioconda Belli, a prominent Nicaraguan poet who worked clandestinely for the Sandinistas before the revolution and supported them enthusiastically in the early days of their rule. 鈥淚t was an anti-dictatorial movement,鈥� she points out. 鈥淲e fought against a 45-year-old dictatorship, so to go back to dictatorship [means] there is nothing Sandinista left.鈥�
Despite ongoing repression, a coalition of opposition organizations came together in 2018 to form a front they named Blue听&听White National Unity听(UNAB), hoping to defeat Mr. Ortega and return Nicaragua to democratic rule.
鈥淲e saw a small window of opportunity for Nicaraguan citizens to elect new authorities, even in such adverse conditions,鈥� says Alexa Zamora, a member of the political council of UNAB who is now in exile. But the window quickly shut on them.
In June, the government placed under house arrest leading rival Cristiana Chamorro 鈥� daughter of former President Violeta Barrios de Chamorro, who defeated Mr. Ortega in 1990 elections 鈥� on charges of money laundering, which she denies. Within weeks, the remaining six contenders were imprisoned under a law passed in December 2020 criminalizing 鈥渢raitors.鈥� That has left just five other candidates 鈥� all considered Ortega loyalists 鈥� on the ballot.
An October CID Gallup poll showed only 19% of Nicaraguans planned to vote for Mr. Ortega, compared with 65% who supported an imprisoned opposition candidate.
A chilling effect
Mr. Ortega鈥檚 crackdown reaches beyond the political world. As of Nov. 4, the government had arrested 39 people, including Francisco Aguirre-Sacasa, former Nicaraguan ambassador to the United States who spoke critically of the government after the 2018 crisis but toned down his听comments before elections.听鈥淢y father鈥檚 retired from politics,鈥� his daughter Georgie Aguirre-Sacasa says. 鈥淗e鈥檚 a horse farmer and a grandfather. He is not a spy or whatever they are claiming he is.鈥�
The Ortega-Murillo government has justified its actions as necessary to defend the country against 鈥渇oreign interference.鈥� In a June speech, Mr. Ortega condemned 鈥渇alse narratives espoused by right-wing media and U.S.-funded 鈥榦pposition figures.鈥欌��
In July, Nicaragua鈥檚 Supreme Electoral Council announced it would not allow electoral observers. At least a dozen foreign reporters have been denied entry or never received a response to a request for a journalist鈥檚 visa, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.
The government wants an 鈥渋nformation blackout,鈥� says Cindy Regidor, a Nicaraguan journalist with independent media outlet Confidencial who is now living in Costa Rica. Police harass and confiscate equipment from journalists working in the field, and public prosecutors have called journalists in for questioning so as to intimidate them, she says. 鈥淲hat exists in Nicaragua is a regime that now uses judicial persecution against anyone they consider an adversary, including journalists.鈥澨�
That tactic has had a chilling effect on political debate. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of fear in Nicaragua 鈥� fear of repression, of arbitrary detentions, and of criminal charges for crimes against national integrity,鈥� says a UNAB member who asked not to be identified to ensure their security.听
A path forward
Ortega鈥檚 鈥渧irtual beheading of any slight electoral challenge鈥� is incomparable to any elections in Latin America since the region鈥檚 transition to democracy after military dictatorships in the 1980s, says Mr. Breda. Even in Venezuela some participation by rival candidates has been allowed; the opposition won control of Congress in 2015.
And that鈥檚 why the international community must mobilize, he says.
With the election outcome certain, UNAB has launched a campaign called 鈥淟et鈥檚 Stay at Home鈥� urging Nicaraguans to refrain from the Nov. 7 vote and calling on the international community to reject the outcome and demand another race.
The actions of the regional Organization of American States, which issued a resolution on Oct. 20 calling for the release of political prisoners and respect for free elections, will be crucial to set the tone of the international response, UNAB says.
The U.S. Senate this week passed the Renacer Act,听which calls for restrictions on the Nicaraguan听government鈥檚 access to international funding and sanctions on officials involved in attacks on听democracy and human rights abuses.听Mr. Breda says the international community must coordinate condemnations and sanctions after the elections.
UNAB leaders say they hope to establish dialogue with the government. But first, they insist that all political prisoners must be freed.
They know reestablishing democracy will likely be a yearslong process 鈥� and they aim for it to be peaceful, unlike the armed resistance Mr. Ortega once waged, says Ms. Zamora.
鈥淣icaraguan citizens have chosen the civic and pacific route,鈥� she says, 鈥渁s the only route out of this socioeconomic crisis.鈥�
We are withholding the byline on this article in order to ensure the author鈥檚 security.听
