海角大神

Editor鈥檚 note: In news that broke after this story was published, more than 60 people are reported dead and more are missing or injured in a fuel-pipeline explosion Jan. 18 in聽the town of Tlahuelilpan, in the state of Hidalgo north of Mexico City. Mexican President Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador聽has pledged to investigate the incident, which is initially being attributed to an illegal pipeline tap.聽鈥淚 believe in the people, I trust in the people, and I know that with these painful, lamentable lessons, the people will also distance themselves from these practices,鈥� he said according to an Associated Press report.

Vittoria Romero and her daughter Celia were celebrating with high-fives and big smiles on a bright but chilly morning this week: They鈥檇 successfully filled their compact car鈥檚 gas tank after less than 30 minutes in line.

Across Mexico, people like the Romeros have been contending with hours-long bumper-to-bumper waits at the pumps, reduced bus transportation, and other daily inconveniences for the past two weeks. The fuel distribution problems began after President Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador ordered the closure of key pipelines in late December in an effort to curtail rampant fuel theft. Illegal taps in state-owned pipelines cost Mexico roughly $3 billion in 2017. Between January and November last year an estimated of fuel were stolen per day, according to the state-owned petroleum company, Pemex.

Gas has long been a hot-button issue here, from its nationalization in 1938 to a price hike in 2017 that led to weeks-long, sometimes violent protests. But despite plenty of grumbling over the daily effects of the pipeline cuts and distribution challenges, AMLO, as the president is often called, has maintained widespread support. According to a Monday poll published in the Mexican daily El Financiero, 89 percent support the president鈥檚 offensive against fuel theft. His overall approval ratings have even increased slightly, to roughly 76 percent support.

Amid so much frustration, support for the president comes down to a sense of hopefulness 鈥� well-founded or not 鈥� that Mr. L贸pez Obrador is making tangible changes for good. Unlike previous leaders, L贸pez Obrador is governing in a way that鈥檚 more visible to the public. Fuel shortages have consistently headlined his daily, livestreamed press conferences. The fight against theft in many ways melds central themes AMLO underscored in his historic presidential victory: an end to fraud and impunity, working to help the 鈥渆veryman,鈥澛燼nd a more secure and safer Mexico. Fraud and impunity have gone essentially unimpeded for decades, and many reason that dealing with gas shortages is worth it 鈥� to an extent.

鈥淚鈥檝e waited for close to two hours before,鈥� says the younger Ms. Romero, a masseuse who relies on her mother鈥檚 car to get to many of her clients. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a pain, and I hope it doesn鈥檛 go on much longer. But, at the end of the day, it鈥檚 worth it if it鈥檚 for the good of the country.鈥�

A present president

L贸pez Obrador spends roughly an hour every weekday morning speaking to reporters and the public in press conferences that stream online. His announcements often come off as unplanned or off the cuff, peppered with trademark folksy turns of phrase. And although he frequently skirts questions (Mexican magazine Nexos tracked how often in December, putting it at about 71 percent of time), his public presence is a 180-degree turn from his predecessor, Enrique Pe帽a Nieto, who rarely took questions from the press and led at arm鈥檚 length.

鈥淲hen you鈥檙e not out there talking to the press and not talking to the public, you鈥檙e simply not there. That鈥檚 what happened with Pe帽a Nieto; he was an absent president,鈥� says Alejandro Schtulmann, president and head of research at the Emerging Markets Political Risk Analysis consulting firm in Mexico City. He thinks support continues for AMLO despite the daily impact of the fuel cuts because he鈥檚 governing out loud and so publicly compared with past leaders.

鈥淟贸pez Obrador is a really good communicator. He may lie or not actually give any information when he answers a question, but at least he鈥檚 there. And people believe by being present he鈥檚 there for them,鈥� Mr. Schtulmann says.

Rosa Diana, a housekeeper in Mexico City, says she鈥檚 had to wait longer for the bus in the morning since fewer appear to be running the past few weeks. She voted for AMLO, but is growing frustrated with her commute and the lack of concrete plans for fuel distribution.

鈥淚 think people are supporting AMLO through it all because they think he鈥檚 going to increase benefits,鈥� she says, referring to his promises to boost pensions for the elderly and scholarships for impoverished youth, among other social programs. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 like what the gas situation has done in their daily lives, but they are willing to be patient because they think he will help them in other ways.鈥�

Unmapped road

More than have been deployed to protect the most important pipelines this month. While lines are closed, fuel is moved by tankers, a slower 鈥� and costly 鈥� form of transportation, contributing to shortages in parts of the country.

Oil theft is a real challenge that few leaders have tried to tackle in the past. Illegally tapping pipelines is carried out not only聽by transnational criminal groups, but also by communities near pipelines which rely on black-market oil income to stay afloat. Government employees, private security, and have also been implicated in oil-theft-related corruption.

Although ending fuel theft is important, analysts worry that there isn鈥檛 an actual plan other than these short-term cuts. 鈥淭he purpose of the policy is not really clear,鈥� says Schtulmann, adding that tankers aren鈥檛 a long-term solution and fully guarding hundreds of miles of pipelines isn鈥檛 realistic. 鈥淓ventually we鈥檒l return to the pipelines, so it鈥檚 unclear what [the president] is doing that is going to be different.鈥�

Others are more optimistic.

鈥淚t will be difficult to say 鈥榯he problem has been eradicated,鈥� but I foresee small yet important steps coming out of this, like reclaiming government territory from criminal networks and exposing corrupt officials,鈥� says Pedro Isnardo de la Cruz, a political scientist and expert on security at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. The government鈥檚 announcement Monday that three top Pemex officials will be tried for fuel theft is promising, he says. More than 1,500 other individual investigations are under way, according to the attorney general鈥檚 office.

鈥淔ighting corruption is symbolic, and [L贸pez Obrador] wins big points with his words and actions around it,鈥� says Mr. Isnardo. 鈥淚n the short term he鈥檒l continue getting a lot of support for this fight,鈥� but if the economy starts to take a big hit or the peso falls, support could falter. He thinks this could go on for a few more months without AMLO taking a big hit.

鈥淩ight now, he has almost unconditional support.鈥�