Honduras do-over, or done deal? Election puts monitors in the spotlight.
| Mexico City
After weeks of counting and recounting ballots in Honduras鈥� contested presidential election, and deadly clashes between security forces and protesters, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announced Sunday that incumbent President Juan Orlando Hern谩ndez is the country鈥檚 next leader.
The European Union, one of the international bodies observing the Nov. 26 election, appeared to back those results, announcing that, despite earlier concerns, the recount showed no irregularities.
But the Organization of American States (OAS), which also sent official election observers, : 鈥淭he only possible path for the winner to be the Honduran people is a new call for general elections,鈥� as Secretary General Luis Almagro said in a statement.
The OAS found irregularities in the election, including 鈥渄eliberate human intrusions into the computer system, intentional elimination of digital traces,鈥� open or tampered ballot boxes, and 鈥渢he narrow difference of votes鈥� between the two front-runners. The margin of victory was roughly 50,000 votes, or 1.6 percentage points, according to the TSE.
Calling an election fraudulent to the extent that it鈥檚 deemed invalid is a rarity in Latin America, where observation missions have taken place since Chile鈥檚 1988 referendum on then-dictator Augusto Pinochet.
Protests are continuing as foreign governments move to congratulate Mr. Hern谩ndez, or , buying time.聽What happens next 鈥� when the government has been called out on the international stage, yet has no legal obligation to follow the OAS鈥檚 guidance 鈥� underscores the fragility of trust in governing institutions in the region, and throws into question the role of democratic watchdogs like election monitors. Over the past three decades, election monitoring has become a global norm, but in some ways that has diluted the power election monitors have in practice.
鈥淲hat鈥檚 at risk is the whole essence of democracy,鈥� says Jennie Lincoln, director of the Latin America program at the Carter Center, who has worked as an election observer since the 1980s. 鈥淚f leaders or governments or political parties can stomp on the tenets of democracy, of open, free, and fair participation, then the whole system is undermined.鈥澛�
Winner at last?
Hern谩ndez accepted his victory this week, calling for national dialogue and inviting opposition candidate Salvador Nasralla to meet. Under Honduran law, Mr. Nasralla鈥檚 Opposition Alliance Against the Dictatorship coalition party and others have five days to lodge complaints with the election authority before the victory is cemented.
鈥淲e have fulfilled our obligation [and] we wish for there to be peace in鈥� Honduras, TSE President David Matamoros said Sunday after announcing Hern谩ndez鈥檚 win.
Honduras has garnered global attention since its vote count took a sudden聽turn late last month, when Nasralla鈥檚聽 eroded after nearly a day and a half of silence from the TSE. But the country has a track record of consolidating power when the world looks away, says Christopher Sabatini, who teaches Latin American affairs at Columbia University鈥檚 School for International and Public Affairs.聽
鈥淧eople鈥檚 attention will move on. That鈥檚 what happened in 2009,鈥� he says, referring to the year when Hern谩ndez鈥檚 National Party orchestrated a coup to remove then-President Manuel Zelaya from office. 鈥淭hey just waited. Refused to step down,鈥� and offered to hold new elections later that year to 鈥渨ipe the slate clean,鈥� Sabatini says.
The National Party won that election, and went on to stack the Supreme Court with party sympathizers. That laid the groundwork for allowing Hern谩ndez to run again this year, despite a Constitutional ban on reelection.
A complicated choice
鈥淢ost elections all over the world are validated [by international observers] because the bar for invalidating an election is so astronomically high,鈥� says Irfan Nooruddin, an election expert at Georgetown University鈥檚 Walsh School of Foreign Service. Dr. Nooruddin did a statistical analysis of TSE-provided Honduras election data as a consultant for the OAS this month, which concluded, 鈥� the proposition that the National Party won the election legitimately.鈥�
Still, he says,聽it was a surprise when the OAS called for fresh elections.
Calls for a re-vote are rare because 鈥渘o one wants to be accused of undermining sovereignty. You don鈥檛 want international observers鈥� decisions substituting the will of the people,鈥� Nooruddin says.
But when that kind of hesitation leads to approval of fishy elections, it can also weaken citizen faith in democracy and international observers. Hondurans went into the polls already skeptical: Almost of Hondurans don鈥檛 trust their elections, according to Vanderbilt University鈥檚 Latin America Public Opinion Project.
鈥淚f people get away with undermining democracy [during an election] then what鈥檚 next? Acceptance of corruption? Acceptance of violence? Acceptance of trouncing human rights? There鈥檚 a spiral that goes downward,鈥� says Dr. Lincoln.
Election monitors may justify signing off on elections as free and fair, even if they were imperfect, because 鈥渋f we go about calling out elections as illegitimate all the time, no one will invite us back,鈥� Nooruddin says.
Many argue it鈥檚 better to have monitors present in an educational capacity than missing from the scene entirely. But in the case of Honduras, there was a long list of needed changes to improve the integrity of the electoral system given after the 2013 presidential race, like a more independent TSE, that were never put into practice.
鈥淲hat鈥檚 the lesson for the international community?鈥� Lincoln asks. 鈥淓ither know that you鈥檙e pushing a rock up a hill, or change some kind of collaboration or coordination with the governments so that these reforms can be made.鈥�
Observing the observers
There was a strong shift toward election monitoring globally in the 1990s after the fall of the Soviet Union, as the United States emphasized and encouraged democratic reform around the world.聽鈥淓lections were seen as the most obvious indicator of a democratic transition,鈥� says Nooruddin, who touching on the disconnect between quality elections and quality democracy.
As a result, 鈥渢here鈥檚 almost an obsessive focus on election day in this broader promotion of democracy,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e are good at having better elections, but we rush to equate that with better democracy, which is shortsighted,鈥� he says.
Election monitoring has become an international norm, but that doesn鈥檛 always mean fairer elections. For leaders more committed to power than democracy, being able to point to the presence of an international observer during an election 鈥� no matter their standards 鈥� gives a semblance of legitimacy.
That鈥檚 recently become the case in countries like Venezuela or Nicaragua, where the governments have relied on observations by newer monitoring groups like The Latin American Council of Electoral Experts (CEELA). The group is reportedly聽made up largely of former electoral magistrates from across the region, who aren鈥檛 necessarily trained in election observation and tend to helicopter in for election day 鈥� as opposed to weeks ahead of time, as is the traditional practice of well-respected observation groups.
鈥淭hey are a stooge for whatever government wants them,鈥� says Mr. Sabatini, who recently wrote about the group on the website , where he鈥檚 executive director. 鈥淭hey go through the motions of election monitoring鈥� and in the end can help a government look legitimate.聽
鈥淭hey are diluting the system and in some ways making it meaningless,鈥� he says.
CEELA is not alone. Other election-monitoring groups, such as the , have also been accused of less stringent standards. 鈥淎ll international observers are not equal,鈥� Lincoln says.聽
But the OAS and the EU are two of the most respected monitoring bodies participating in the region. The EU its initial statements made at a press conference earlier this week supporting the TSE decision, noting on Twitter that its conclusions aren鈥檛 absolute until it publishes its final report.
鈥淓lection monitors have become so widely used that [the system] arguably isn鈥檛 useful anymore,鈥� says Nooruddin. 鈥淭he most shocking thing to happen in Honduras is that the OAS had the guts to say 鈥楾his is not good enough.鈥� 鈥澛�
