'Canada's Texas' just swung hard blue. Here's why that matters.
| Montreal
On May 5, the province of Alberta saw one of the biggest听political turnovers in Canadian history 鈥撎齮hough from outside the country, it's听easy to misunderstand the significance. Though Alberta's long-time ruling party听was ousted in dramatic fashion by a party known for its radical history, the听newcomers are likely to take a measured approach as they change the course of the oil-rich听province鈥檚 government and energy policies.
Q: What happened in Alberta?
Alberta is best known for immense oil fields, wide open cattle听country and consistent conservative听politics. But in a sudden turnabout, the leftist New听Democratic Party ended 44 consecutive years of Progressive Conservative control of the province.
Rachel Notley will become Alberta's new premier, or top elected leader. Despite winning just 40 percent of the popular vote, the NPD won 53 of Alberta鈥檚 87 electoral divisions, giving her the听power to pass bills at will. Another outsider party, the anti-tax听Wildrose Party, won 21 districts and will be the official听opposition. The听PCs fell to just 10 seats, a harsh end to Canada鈥檚 longest听governing dynasty.
Q: Just how big a deal is this?
Really big. It's like Texas not just voting Democrat, but voting overwhelmingly for San Francisco Democrats. Alberta is known more for long guns and wide trucks, rather than social democrat policy wonks. It had been the only western Canadian province never to elect an NDP government. It is the home to Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who represents the Conservative Party.
Q: Why did Albertans suddenly vote out the PCs?
After so long in office, the PCs had alienated its core of fiscal听conservatives with boondoggle听spending and new taxes.
In the last听election, in 2012, they almost lost to Wildrose, which only wilted at the last minute, after the party leader declined to distance herself听from an ally鈥檚听anti-gay comments. (Eighty percent of Canadians say听homosexuality should be accepted, according a听2013 Pew poll.)
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This year, Jim Prentice, Alberta鈥檚 PC premier, was especially听vulnerable because he had called an early election just after introducing听an unpopular budget, pollster Mario Canseco wrote .
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Ian Urquhart, assistant professor of political science at听the University of Alberta in Edmonton, says听the timing worked for the upstarts.听鈥淭hat opened the door for a popular, charismatic leader to do听something听different than has happened before, which is vote for NDP,鈥� he says.
Part of the change is demographic. Alberta is an increasingly diverse, multicultural, and urban province. Its largest city, Calgary, drew attention in 2010 by electing Naheed Nenshi, the first Muslim mayor of a major North American city. [Editor's note: The original version mischaracterized Calgary.]
The听growing diversity is in part a result of the province鈥檚听economic听success, says Brian Milner, a columnist with the Globe and Mail听newspaper in Toronto. 鈥淭hey鈥檝e听drawn young people from across Canada, mostly young, urban people with same听concerns as those in Toronto, Montreal, or other urban areas.鈥�
Q: What sort of changes will the NDP bring to Alberta?
The NDP is very different on style. In a break from the听old-boys club of the PC dynasty, most NDP听legislators are new to government. Almost half are women.
On policy, Ms. Notley promised to听raise the minimum wage听by 47 percent to US $12.30 an hour. She has called for the corporate tax rate听to rise from 10 percent to 12 percent. And she wants to hike taxes on high听earners. She says she will听support the provincial health system and boost听funding for education. And she has called for an end to听corporate and union campaign donations.
Q: What does Alberta's reversal mean for Alberta's energy industry?
A careful, but potentially significant review of the听province's relationship with the industry. As in听many commodity-producing听areas, people in Alberta often complain that they are exporting raw听materials,听letting people at the other end of the pipeline reap much of the profit and many听of the jobs.听Notley says she wants the province to extract more value, possibly听by imposing higher royalties or by听refining more oil within Alberta.
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But the NDP is trying not to alienate the oil industry.听鈥淲hile we may believe there is some new听consideration that needs to occur, that听it will be done collaboratively and in partnership with our key听job creators in听this province,鈥� Notley said.
Hence, rather than call for higher royalties, she has called for a 鈥渞eview.鈥� And she鈥檚 been vague about how much government muscle she will put into expanding refining. New refineries would compete with the tar sands for scarce engineers, and would actually increase the province鈥檚 dependence on its key industry.
In what may be the biggest impact for the US, she has said she will stop promoting听the Keystone XL pipeline. That doesn鈥檛 mean Canada鈥檚 national government will stop its sales push, but it may reduce pressure for the project.
Q: What about Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper? Should he be worried?
Not really, Mr. Milner says.
鈥淯nlike the provincial听Tories, the national听economy is in better shape than the provincial economy,鈥� he says. 鈥淎nd the national听electorate听isn鈥檛 as disgruntled as the Albertan electorate.鈥�
Canadians also tend to put different parties in their provincial and national capitals. In short: no immediate crisis.
