What's going on in Venezuela?
Venezuelan opposition and pro-government demonstrators took to the streets again today in the highly polarized South American nation. The turnout was large and protests remained relatively calm, but tensions have been on the rise since the Feb. 12 deaths of three people after demonstrations in Caracas.
Why are Venezuelans taking to the streets?
Venezuela is faced by economic, social, and political challenges: Inflation is at 56 percent, the currency is rapidly devaluing, shortages of staples like toilet paper and sugar are plaguing the nation, and the murder rate is one of the worst in the world. What started out as roughly two weeks of small, student-led protests against the Maduro administration has turned into opposition-organized marches that involve stone-throwing and taunting met by tear gas and water cannons.
鈥淭hese are legitimate issues that do need a popular voice and channel for expression,鈥� says Christopher Sabatini, senior director of policy at the Americas Society in New York. 鈥淲hat makes the protests particularly volatile is that other avenues to express these demands have been closed down,鈥� Mr. Sabatini says, referring to the closure of opposition media over the past several years and the shuttering of multiple newspapers nationwide more recently due to paper shortages.
What鈥檚 at stake for the opposition?
The government issued an arrest warrant last week for opposition leader Leopoldo L贸pez, on charges of inciting protest violence. His home, office, and other locations were raided in an attempt to take him into custody, and he ultimately turned himself in to the National Guard today after speaking to opposition protesters in downtown Caracas.
鈥淥ur youth have no jobs, no future because of this economic model that has failed,鈥� Mr. L贸pez told his supporters. "If they put me in prison, it'll wake up the people. That's worthwhile."
Some fear L贸pez鈥檚 role in organizing recent protests against the government could further splinter an already fragile opposition. De facto opposition figurehead and former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles did not support the Feb. 12 protests, which also injured dozens, and has called for greater engagement and discourse with the Maduro administration.
Furthermore, the opposition has a touchy protest history in Venezuela. Early on in former President Hugo Ch谩vez鈥檚 administration, the opposition was consistently on the streets calling for an end to his presidency. In 2002, they organized a coup that briefly unseated the president. Though the opposition leadership is not calling for a coup, the reputation the group made for itself just over a decade ago may be haunting it as it vocally pushes back against Maduro鈥檚 administration. Maduro and his supporters frequently bring up the previous coup attempt, making it difficult for the opposition to separate its current goals from a more radical past.
鈥淎s this movement is increasingly identified with the opposition, it鈥檚 less likely to be a broad popular movement that could include former Chavistas that are feeling the bite of Venezuela鈥檚 disastrous economic policy,鈥� says Sabatini.
The opposition not only risks losing what sympathy it has nationally, but internationally as well. MERCOSUR, the 聽of which Venezuela is a member, issued a statement over the weekend condemning all 鈥渧iolence and intolerance that tries to attack democracy and its institutions, whatever its origin.鈥�
Some believe the protests can give 聽the government the upper hand 鈥� and may already have.
What鈥檚 at stake for the Venezuelan government?
This is the first popular, non-electoral challenge to Maduro鈥檚 rule. The attention Venezuela has received over the past week has put government policies in the national and international spotlight less than a year after former President Ch谩vez鈥檚 death was announced.
Maduro was elected president by a razor thin margin, and the lack of mandate was a challenge from the start. The visible, vocal demonstrations by opposition supporters calling on the government to make changes in Venezuela risk pealing away Maduro supporters, says Sabatini. There are fears that the government itself could become fragmented.
鈥淢aduro鈥檚 credibility has always hung by a thread,鈥� Sabatini says. If Maduro doesn鈥檛 appear to be in control, it could lead to infighting within Chavismo.
The administration has accused the opposition of plotting a coup, operating a fascist movement, and over the weekend announced the expulsion of three US Embassy employees for their alleged involvement with opposition organizing against the government. This is the third time Maduro has kicked out US officials, a common tactic of the Ch谩vez administration.
The government is appealing to its more militant base, says Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. 鈥淢aduro鈥檚 under a lot of pressure,鈥� from his supporters, Mr. Weisbrot says.
In the short run, the rhetoric the government uses to characterize the opposition may be deflecting attention away from many of the protester complaints. However, if larger-scale violence breaks out, or if it is traced back to the government, these tactics could backfire.
What鈥檚 next?
The government has strong political organization and mobilization capabilities, but it inherited and continues to implement damaging economic policies. Short of making any drastic economic changes, many analysts fear further violence in Venezuela.
Weisbrot believes the opposition doesn鈥檛 want to wait years for the next democratic election, and 鈥渢here鈥檚 no peaceful way to do that.鈥�
鈥淚s there a government in the world that would step down just because there are a lot of people calling for change?鈥� Weisbrot asks, citing unrest in Ukraine in addition to Venezuela. 鈥淣o, it doesn鈥檛 happen. They don鈥檛 just resign. There has to be violence.鈥�
But political violence has long been forecast in Venezuela.
鈥淭his is the penny that never drops. We always expect this moment where everything will turn and the government will change course 鈥� and try to build trust and dialogue,鈥� Sabatini says. 鈥淏ut instead, the government and the country keep stumbling on, and stumbling downward.鈥�
