Security could be weakness for Venezuela opposition
鈥� A version of this post ran on the author's site, insightcrime.org. The views expressed are the author's own.
Citizen security is sure to be a key issue in the upcoming October presidential elections in Venezuela, but while the opposition will likely challenge President Hugo Chavez鈥檚 crime policies, their candidate鈥檚 record isn鈥檛 much better.
Venezuela鈥檚 Coalition for Democratic Unity (MUD) held their first-ever presidential primary Sunday, with Henrique Capriles Radonski beating his four opponents in a landslide, taking 62 percent of the vote. Capriles, governor of Miranda state, is now gearing up for an eight month assault on Chavez in the lead up to the Oct. 7 elections. One of the hot-button issues over which the two are likely to square off is crime prevention. Venezuela saw a , and the level of (in Spanish) and has surged in recent years.
Like other leading figures in the MUD, Capriles has repeatedly criticized Chavez for the state of crime in Venezuela. Rather than endorsing a "hardline" solution to insecurity in the country, however, he has proposed more social remedies. He has expressed an interest in making Venezuela鈥檚 notoriously crowded prisons (in Spanish), saying 鈥渢he most important human rights violations occur in the prisons run by the government.鈥� Education is the (in Spanish) of his campaign, and he has as 鈥渢he long-term solution to our crime phenomenon.鈥�
But while Capriles has gained significant praise for his work on education as governor of Miranda, his security achievements in the state have been lacking. According to Venezuela鈥檚 Corps of Scientific, Penal, and Criminal Investigations鈥� (CICPC) (in Spanish), Miranda has not been spared the country鈥檚 rapidly rising homicide rate. While the number of murders is less than Caracas (which saw 3,488), the 2,138 homicides that took place in Miranda last year make it one of the most violent states in Venezuela.
So far, 2012 has not been an exception. Last week Venezuelan Interior Minister Tareck El Aissami released the official (in Spanish), which suggest Miranda saw more murders than any other state in the country in January. The 231 homicides in the state last month represent a 16 percent increase from the tally of murders in January 2011.
Capriles has said that violence has worsened in some parts of the country because the Chavez administration has led by opposition politicians, gutting their ability to fund police forces. The government has denied this, however, saying that Capriles has (in Spanish) for the state police. El Aissami has claimed that this represents a 鈥渃omplete abandonment of [Capriles鈥橾 responsibilities,鈥� and proves that the governor is hypocritical in criticizing insecurity in the country.
The Chavez government is not alone in criticizing the rate of crime in Miranda. Two years after Capriles took office in 2008, the non-governmental organization, the Venezuelan Observatory of Violence (OVV) released a report condemning not only the high level of murders in the state, but also (in Spanish). According to the OVV, most homicides in the state are met with impunity, and 93 percent of murder cases in the state lack even a single suspect.
Capriles鈥� lackluster record on crime in his own state, as well as the ferocity of the government鈥檚 counter-attacks, may prove to be a major flaw for the Miranda governor in the coming months. Indeed, this weakness could partially explain why one of his MUD rivals, former Chacao Mayor Leopoldo Lopez, dropped out of the primary race in January to support Capriles鈥� campaign. After his own campaign was marred by corruption allegations, Lopez was unlikely to win. Now that he is on the Capriles team he can lend his own, considerably better, security reputation to the campaign. Though it is located in Miranda, Chacao became (in Spanish).
So far, however, neither Lopez nor Capriles has released a detailed proposal to combat insecurity, a key issue for Venezuelans. According to public opinion polling project (in Spanish), the majority of Venezuelans (61 percent) rate 鈥渃rime/public security鈥� as the most pressing issue facing their country. Unless his campaign comes up with a more specific policy prescription for crime which dramatically breaks with Chavez鈥檚, he will have trouble convincing the electorate that he鈥檒l do any better.
鈥� 听is a writer for s, which provides research, analysis, and investigation of the criminal world throughout the region.Find all of his research .
