海角大神

Venezuelan President Hugo Ch谩vez touched down last night at Havana鈥檚 Jos茅 Mart铆 airport in another twist in the tale of his newly public battle with cancer.

The fiery socialist leader will today begin chemotherapy there for an unknown period of time, raising questions as to the future of his presidency especially as elections loom in 2012.

鈥淲e're going to give it everything we've got,鈥� Mr. Ch谩vez said Saturday as he boarded his flight in Caracas. 鈥淚t's not time to die. It's time to live.鈥�

The slow release of information about Ch谩vez's illness has led to much speculation on his health and, therefore, his ability to govern. And as he toys with how much decision-making power to delegate while he is treated in Cuba, analysts warn of a looming power struggle within his inner circle.

鈥淐h谩vez still resists transferring authority to his vice president, and it remains to be seen how many important decisions will be made by others,鈥� says Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington. 鈥淚t would be a complete break from the caudillo-style [quasi-dictatorial, top-down] governance that has characterized the Ch谩vez regime.鈥�

Power struggle ahead?

Mr. Shifter struggles to believe that an arrangement whereby Ch谩vez shuttles back and forth between Cuba and Venezuela, maintaining his hold on power, will work smoothly.

鈥淓ither Ch谩vez will refuse to give up real decision-making or, if he is incapacitated, his inner circle will engage in a fierce power struggle that could become quite chaotic,鈥� says Shifter.

During Ch谩vez's recent three-week-long convalescence in Cuba 鈥� during which time he was finally forced admit to Venezuela and the world that he had been diagnosed with and treated for cancer 鈥� Venezuela's Vice President El铆as Jaua appeared reluctant to take the helm, perhaps for fear of appearing to upstage his boss.

A hint of delegation

This time around, Ch谩vez has delegated some 鈥� but not all 鈥� decisions to Mr. Jaua and Finance Minister Jorge Giordani.

This is in fact the first time in his 12-year presidency that any top-level governance has been entrusted to others.

There have been many calls for Ch谩vez to hand over all power temporarily, given his state. However, the socialist firebrand is the revolution in Venezuela. He is both the face of the government and the man that runs it. So he's reluctant to do this.

Ch谩vez鈥檚 omnipresent role in government was demonstrated during his absence in Cuba last month when ministers made confused and contradictory announcements, clearly out of the loop and fighting a battle between saying too little and perpetuating rumors or saying too much and upsetting their leader.

Who will run things?

The question of power struggles and future governance of Venezuela has been the focus of much talk since Ch谩vez鈥檚 announcement that he had been treated for cancer.

Jaua, as well as other top ministers in Venezuela, lack the charisma that has kept Ch谩vez in power for more than a decade. They lack his ease with the population, especially the poor, and will struggle therefore to bring in votes.

Elder brother Ad谩n Ch谩vez 鈥� jokingly described by Hugo as 鈥渢he Marxist in the family鈥� 鈥� appears to be a possible candidate, although lacks his brother鈥檚 magnetism.

For now, few supporters can imagine anyone besides Hugo Ch谩vez adequately carrying the mantle of his "21st-century socialism."

Gloria Torres lives in the Petare slum in the east of Venezuela's capital, Caracas. She has organized church events to pray for the president鈥檚 health and has no doubt he'll recover fully.

Says Ms. Torres: 鈥淐h谩vez鈥檚 health is the health of the Venezuelan people.鈥�