海角大神

President Daniel Ortega on Saturday accepted his party's nomination for the presidency, even though his reelection is barred by the Constitution.

Despite an outcry over the allegedly fraudulent presidential bid, early polls show Mr. Ortega is favored to win the November election. And given Nicaragua鈥檚 bleak political panorama, the Sandinista strongman is increasingly considered the least-bad option here 鈥� at least by the country鈥檚 sizable poor population that has benefited from new social programs and government handouts.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think that the Nicaraguan citizen relates to the issue of legality or legitimacy as long as fundamental services are provided in an immediate way 鈥� and this government is very effective in delivering the fundamentals,鈥� says Arturo Cruz, a political science professor at INCAE Business School and Ortega鈥檚 former ambassador to the United States.

'Totally illegal'

The former revolutionary鈥檚 bid for presidency is nothing new 鈥� he鈥檚 been the Sandinista Front鈥檚 only candidate since 1984, when he was first elected president. But this time it鈥檚 illegal, insist legal experts, opposition politicians, and religious leaders.

Silvio Jos茅 B谩ez, the Roman Catholic Church鈥檚 popular and outspoken auxiliary bishop of Managua, says the 鈥渞ule of law has been blown to smithereens.鈥� And today a group of Sandinista dissidents, who held various leadership roles in the revolutionary government in the 80s, released a joint statement calling Ortega鈥檚 candidacy a 鈥渟hameful act鈥� by a 鈥渃riminal group that has usurped the name of the Sandinista National Liberation Front.鈥�

Article 147 of the Constitution prohibits acting presidents from seeking reelection, and bans the candidacy of any president who has already served two terms. The Supreme Court declared that part of the Constitution illegal in 2009, apparently clearing the way for Ortega鈥檚 reelection bid. But opposition lawyers argue that Articles 191 and 195 of the Constitution establish that only the National Assembly has the authority to reform the Constitution.

鈥淟egality and legitimacy are academic arguments that apply to the Facebook crowd, and to a small educated elite,鈥� Mr. Cruz says. But, he adds, that鈥檚 not so much the case for 鈥減eople who are overwhelmed by life.鈥�

While the 鈥淔acebook crowd鈥� is indeed protesting 鈥� on Saturday some 16,000 Nicaraguans held a 鈥渧irtual march鈥� on Facebook against Ortega鈥檚 reelection bid 鈥� most of the country is offline.

Weak opposition

Further aiding Ortega鈥檚 candidacy is a divided opposition and general mistrust of the Ortega-controlled Supreme Electoral Council (CSE), which is still marred by alleged electoral fraud in 2008 that led to massive aid-cuts from the US and European Union. Roberto Rivas, who remains chief of the CSE though his term expired last July, is now attempting to block electoral observers from monitoring this year鈥檚 polls.

鈥淩ight now, with the current electoral authorities, people feel that regardless of whether Ortega gets more votes or not, he鈥檒l win the elections,鈥� says Nicaraguan pollster Raul Obreg贸n.

Former CSE chief Rosa Marina Zelaya, Mr. Rivas's predecessor from the 1990s, worries that even if the rest of the electoral process moves forward peacefully and with some semblance of normalcy, the process has already been corrupted.

鈥淲hat legality or legitimacy are the elected authorities going to have after the Nov. 6 elections?鈥� she asks. 鈥淭here is an illegitimacy to the entire electoral process that will never be removed.鈥�

How Ortega outfoxed US

While the US and EU 鈥� regular targets of Ortega鈥檚 rhetorical harangues 鈥� are most likely not thrilled about the prospect of another Ortega administration, in quieter moments, some Western diplomats admit they鈥檝e been outfoxed by Ortega.

In addition to stripping Western powers of their economic leverage by forming a sweetheart deal for financial assistance from Venezuelan comrade Hugo Ch谩vez, Ortega has also kept Nicaragua鈥檚 sluggish opposition divided and confused, giving Western nations no viable allies to work with.

鈥淭he art of messing around in another country is; you can鈥檛 do it all by yourself, you need to have strong local allies,鈥� Latin American expert Richard Feinberg, former President Bill Clinton鈥檚 senior director of the National Security Council鈥檚 Office of Inter-American Affairs, told the Monitor.

And the US, Mr. Feinberg says, doesn鈥檛 feel it has strong local allies in Nicaragua. Presidential hopeful Fabio Gadea, a veteran radio producer who is running on the ticket of the Liberal Independent Party (PLI), might be the US鈥檚 best bet for a political partner, considering the other 鈥渙pposition鈥� option is former president and ex-convict Arnoldo Alem谩n, named to Transparency International鈥檚 list of top 10 most corrupt leaders of all time.

鈥淭he US government decided quite a while ago that Alem谩n was irredeemable 鈥� that鈥檚 the view in Washington among Democrats and Republications,鈥� Feinberg says. 鈥淎lem谩n bears a great deal of responsibility for the institutional and political problems besetting Nicaragua.鈥�

While Washington analysts stop short of calling Ortega the lesser of two evils, if he can provide stability in a world increasingly beset by political turmoil and social upheaval, would-be foreign meddlers might be more inclined to sit this round out.

鈥淭he fact that Ortega is now the establishment in Nicaragua and represents continuity and stability in an otherwise convulsed region also encourages passivity in Washington,鈥� says Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think tank. 鈥淥rtega seems to have made all the right moves not only to consummate his power grab at home, but to inoculate him against an effective international campaign."