Nigeria's Boko Haram: Is it here to stay?
A version of this post originally appeared in . The views expressed are the author's own.听
Jacob Zenn has published an important聽聽that analyzes the various factions that comprise 鈥�Boko Haram,鈥� their leadership and rivalries, and their links with other radical Islamist groups outside Nigeria.听
The article is dense and exhaustively documented.听
Here, I highlight certain of his points that I found especially relevant, given that the kidnapped Chibok聽school girls remain in captivity and a focus of intense domestic and international concern.听
Mr. Zenn鈥檚 reminder is salutary that the French intervention in Mali likely had a perverse consequence of revivifying Boko Haram and strengthening its ties with other radical Islamist groups. There is a lesson here as western governments consider what they can do to free the Chibok school girls.
Further, given the preoccupation with freeing the girls, his discussion of the role of Boko Haram鈥檚 use of kidnapping is of particular use. He shows that the financial profits from kidnapping are very high, especially in a part of the world where the costs of conducting terrorism are low.
For those who follow Boko Haram closely, his suggestion that the name 鈥淎bubakar Shekau鈥� may have become a聽nom de guerre聽for Boko Haram鈥檚 collective leadership is useful. The聽nom de guerre聽is still of course used by Mr. Shekau himself.
I find the suggestion credible and it could account for why 鈥淎bubakar Shekau鈥� appears somewhat different in appearance and mannerisms in some of the videos Boko Haram has released.
If Zenn is correct, it also means that negotiating the release of the girls is likely to be more complicated than it would be if there was a single leader to negotiate with.
Zenn highlights that Boko Haram statements indicate their view that northeastern Nigeria, parts of Cameroon, Chad, and Niger was a single cultural unity rent asunder by the colonial powers. These 鈥渃olonial鈥� boundaries therefore have no legitimacy. So, colonial boundaries -- and the secular states they delineate -- may be like western education: haram.
Finally, Zenn sketches scenarios for the future directions that Boko Haram might take. But even his most optimistic scenario implies that Boko Haram will have the ability to de-stabilize Nigeria for a long time to come.
Jacob Zenn has given us much to think about.
