Kenyans accused in 2007 post-election violence head to The Hague
September will mark a in the International Criminal Court's (ICC) legal proceedings against six Kenyans accused of fomenting post-election violence in 2007-08. From Sept. 1- 12, three of the six (William Ruto, Joshua Arap Sang, and Henry Kosgey) will attend 鈥渃onfirmation of charges鈥� hearings in The Hague, where the ICC will determine whether enough evidence exists to go forward with a trial. Later in the month, the three remaining suspects (Uhuru Kenyatta, Francis Muthaura, and Hussein Ali) will undergo the same process.
A key question going forward will be whether, and how, the .
Profiles of all six suspects are available , but two suspects, Ruto and Kenyatta, are prominent candidates in the 2012 presidential race, and are also participants in key struggles taking place in the present. Ruto is the head of a dissident faction within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), the party of Prime Minister Raila Odinga. of both the party and the new cabinet. The ICC indictment may have weakened Ruto鈥檚 position politically, but Ruto remains defiant, saying that he will run for president even if the trial is still ongoing. Kenyatta, meanwhile, survived the cabinet reshuffle, keeping his position as Finance Minister and remaining a major player in . President Mwai Kibaki may have been for a better relationship with Odinga and a shot at a legacy less tarnished by the 2007-2008 violence, but Kenyatta, ICC indictment notwithstanding, seems 鈥渢oo big to fail.鈥� And though, aspoints out, Odinga has a lead in the polls, 鈥渉is rivals鈥� combined support could unsettle him.鈥� argues that a Kenyatta-Ruto 鈥渃oalition of the damned鈥� could beat Odinga, and put someone else 鈥� presumably Kenyatta 鈥� into the president鈥檚 seat next year.
As Ruto, Sang, and Kosgey this week, it will be important how their constituencies react. have generated press coverage, as have his remarks calling on other ODM leaders not to support the ICC case. These remarks underscore the potential of the ICC case to heighten tensions within and between parties, and between the country鈥檚 different ethnic groups.
鈥� Alex Thurston is a PhD student studying Islam in Africa at Northwestern University and blogs at .
