Local election in northern Sudan deepens North-South rift
From May 2- 4, residents of Southern Kordofan State in North Sudan voted in an election for governor. The outcome 鈥� a triumph for the ruling party candidate, and outrage among the defeated candidate鈥檚 supporters 鈥� threatens to further strain relations between North and South Sudan, and also to increase political tensions in North Sudan itself.
The contest primarily involved two contenders. The first was , a member of North Sudan鈥檚 ruling National Congress Party (NCP) who served as Minister of State for Humanitarian Affairs from 2006 to 2009. In 2007, the International Criminal Court (ICC) charged Haroun with committing war crimes in Darfur and issued a warrant for his arrest. Despite this, in 2009 . The second contestant was Abdelaziz al-Hilu, the state鈥檚 deputy governor and a senior member of the Sudan People鈥檚 Liberation Movement (SPLM), the party that controls the soon-to-be-independent country of South Sudan.
. Many news outlets are concentrating on his ICC indictment, but in my view the more relevant story for Sudan itself is how the outcome of the election will affect relations between the NCP and the SPLM. These two parties are not only set to govern neighboring countries, they are also competitors for the future of North Sudan. The bulk of the SPLM鈥檚 strength is found in South Sudan, but a significant component of the SPLM will remain in the North, where it hopes, as the 鈥淪PLM-N,鈥� to speak for North Sudan鈥檚 marginalized groups. The saw the gubernatorial elections in Southern Kordofan as a major step toward reinforcing its strength in the North, and also toward establishing political pluralism there.
This helps explain why the to the National Electoral Commission鈥檚 announcement of Haroun鈥檚 victory:
鈥淲e will not accept these results because the vote was rigged,鈥� said Yasir Arman, head of the SPLM in the north.
(Arman, it should be noted, was the SPLM鈥檚 presidential candidate in the elections of April 2010, prior to the referendum that gave South Sudan its independence. Arman is a Northerner.)
From the same article, we hear further analysis of the SPLM鈥檚 feelings:
The SPLM fought the north for two decades before a 2005 peace deal, which paved the way for independence for the largely 海角大神 and animist South Sudan from the mainly Muslim, Arabic-speaking north.
But many residents of the Nuba Mountains region of South Kordofan also fought for the SPLM and it is feared they could take up arms once more.
鈥淭hese people were fighting for 20 years and their aspirations are not fulfilled,鈥� Hafiz Mohamed of the Justice Africa think-tank told the BBC鈥檚 Network Africa programme.
鈥淭he way things are going, it鈥檚 leading to a deadlock, which will end up with people carrying arms to release their frustration,鈥� he said.
鈥淚f it starts, no-one can stop it 鈥� it will affect the south, it will affect the north. With the war in Darfur, we are heading for dangerous times.鈥�
The BBC has more analysis of how the Southern Kordofan elections will feed North-South tensions .
These tensions are already partly confirming fears expressed by the international community before, during, and after the elections. The , the all urged the different factions in Southern Kordofan to refrain from violence, though some violence did occur. On May 10, the Sudan Troika (United States, United Kingdom, and Norway) issued a s that included remarks on Southern Kordofan:
We welcome the peaceful completion of polling for Southern Kordofan鈥檚 elections, but are concerned about rising tensions in the state due to a delay in the announcement of preliminary results. We call on local and national leaders to take immediate steps to improve the security situation and exercise control over all armed security elements. We also call on the parties to work together to maintain calm as the preliminary results are announced and to refrain from prematurely declaring electoral victories. The parties should work together to resolve any election disputes peacefully through the courts. In order to maintain stability and promote long-term cooperation, they should build an inclusive government no matter the outcome. It is critical that the elections pave the way for the start of Southern Kordofan鈥檚 popular consultations, which remain an important outstanding element of the CPA.
Journalist , writing before the elections, noted both international concern and the simultaneous presence of international 鈥渇atigue鈥� after 鈥渋ntervening in Sudan鈥檚 myriad crises.鈥� This fatigue has meant that Southern Kordofan鈥檚 problems have largely been overshadowed by other concerns relating to Sudan, such as Washington鈥檚 focus 鈥渙n normalizing battered relations with Sudan鈥檚 northern regime and bolstering the nascent government in the south.鈥� If matters heat up in Southern Kordofan, and if NCP-SPLM relations deteriorate more broadly, we will see how the international community reacts, both to events in Sudan and to its own fatigue.
鈥� Alex Thurston is a PhD student studying Islam in Africa at Northwestern University and blogs at .
