Africa election outlook: Key issues in 6 upcoming elections
As reminds us, 鈥渙ver 30 African countries [are] scheduled to hold parliamentary and presidential elections this year,鈥� and some sixteen countries have already held their votes. A few weeks ago, I looked at the electoral pictures in . One of those elections has completely concluded: on April 8, (more ). This post looks at how elections in the other countries (and in North Sudan) are proceeding.
Here鈥檚 the updated electoral calendar:
- April 25: Presidential elections in Chad
- April 26: State elections and some (previously delayed) legislative elections in Nigeria
- April 28: State elections in Nigeria鈥檚 Kaduna and Bauchi States
- April 30: Parliamentary elections in Benin
- May 2: State elections in North Sudan鈥檚 South Kordofan State
- Unknown: Partial Senate elections in Mauritania
Here is an outline of the major issues at stake in each country:
Chad
Chad鈥檚 upcoming presidential election follows parliamentary elections in February that the ruling party won. Threats of boycotts are dogging the presidential election, meaning incumbent will likely be able 鈥渢o extend his two-decade rule in the central African nation.鈥� I am expecting a continuation of the status quo in Chad.
Nigeria
Nigeria has already completed its presidential election (April 16, which incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan won) and most of its legislative races (April 9, which resulted in some losses for the ruling People鈥檚 Democratic Party). On April 26, Nigeria will hold state elections (for governor and state assembly seats) in almost all of its 36 states, and will hold some of the legislative elections that were delayed because of logistical problems earlier this month. Following the news of Jonathan鈥檚 victory this week, riots began in some Northern Nigerian states. Due to the violence, the electoral commission has delayed the elections in two states, , to April 28.
The gubernatorial elections next week will further test the PDP鈥檚 control at the state level (currently the PDP has 26 governors). It is possible that PDP victories in Northern states could lead to more riots, and there is potential for violence in other areas too, such as the Niger Delta in the South.
Benin
Benin鈥檚 situation is the mirror image of Chad鈥檚. In March, Benin held presidential elections which the incumbent, President Boni Yayi, won. This victory produced opposition threats to boycott the parliamentary elections that have been . These elections will therefore help set the tone for regime-opposition relations during Yayi鈥檚 new term.
North Sudan
Sudan, when it was still one country, held national elections in April 2010. South Kordofan State鈥檚 elections, however, were delayed due to problems with census results. On May 2, voters in South Kordofan (located in North Sudan) will at long last go to the polls to vote for governor and state assembly members. The governor鈥檚 race will be a test of how the Sudan People鈥檚 Liberation Movement (SPLM)鈥檚 performs now that South Sudan, the SPLM鈥檚 home base, has seceded. The race pits the SPLM鈥檚 candidate against a member of the National Congress Party (NCP), which rules North Sudan.
The Sudan Tribune lays out the next steps in :
South Kordofan lies on the fault line between north and south Sudan, incorporating: the Nuba population, which largely sided with the south during the war, as well as the Hawazma and Messirya nomadic Arab tribes who were then believed to be used as proxy militias by the north to fight the south.
The state abuts the explosive region of , another bone of contention between the ruling Sudan People鈥檚 Liberation Movement (SPLM/A) in South Sudan and the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in the north.
Under the CPA, South Kordofan is meant to hold popular consultations, in order to determine whether the agreement has met the aspirations of its citizens and resolve any outstanding issues related to its implementation.
The popular consultation, which is delayed pending the conduct of the state鈥檚 elections, does not accommodate a right to self-determination for South Kordofan which will remain a part of northern Sudan regardless of the consultation鈥檚 outcome, but may retain some autonomy.
The elections in South Kordofan will also tell us something about the political trajectory of the North-South border region as a whole.
Mauritania
Mauritania was due to hold elections this month for around one-third of its Senators, but opposition forces called for a postponement. The , but the manner in which it did so displeased some of the opposition groups, who said the regime had taken the decision out of pure political calculation. A new date has not been set. The delay shows that the opposition has some sway, but the bickering may convince the government that attempts to placate the opposition are in vain.
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What is your take on these elections? Have I missed any others?
鈥� Alex Thurston is a PhD student studying Islam in Africa at Northwestern University and blogs at .
