Nigeria's early election results hint at losses for ruling party
On Saturday, Nigerians in around 85 percent of the country voted in legislative elections. These elections had been delayed by one week following logistical problems on April 2, and those problems account for the delays that have continued to affect .
Yesterday results started to come in from the districts that did vote, and the emerging pattern confirms what , namely losses for the ruling People鈥檚 Democratic Party (PDP). A big beneficiary so far seems to be the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), which has swept much of the southwest. The same analysts who predicted losses for the PDP in the legislative elections, however, have tended to predict that incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan will win reelection. The PDP may retain the presidency, then, but the party and the president will face a different political landscape.
But let鈥檚 not get ahead of ourselves 鈥� let鈥檚 look at the results we have.
In terms of the integrity of the voting process, Saturday鈥檚 vote was not entirely smooth 鈥� in several areas, and opposition leaders in are crying foul over the elections there 鈥� but observers largely praised the conduct of the elections. The stated, 鈥淲e observed an overall encouraging conduct of the elections, in a generally peaceful atmosphere.鈥� The general consensus so far seems to be that .
With more faith in the process, Nigerians and international observers are showing more faith in the results. It鈥檚 worth paying attention to how the results are tabulated. A Nigerian friend here in Chicago has emphasized to me how intently opposition parties, from the leaders to the rank-and-file, will be observing the physical tabulation of votes. Having groups of voters and party officials present at the polling stations and having them insist on seeing and checking the official results, my friend says, will bring greater transparency to the count. notes this phenomenon as well, but also highlights the logistical difficulties of vote counting in remote areas, where in some cases results are collected by officials on horseback.
Now to the actual results. The best sources I鈥檝e found are and the . I quote from the latter:
Senatorial Elections
37 results have been gotten out of 94 senatorial districts. The analysis of the received results show that ACN has 13 seats (35.1 percent), APGA 1 seat (2.7 percent), CPC 3 seats (8.1 percent), LP 1 seat (2.7 percent), PDP 19 seats (51.4 percent)
Federal House Of Representatives Elections
76 results have been gotten out of 315 constituencies. The analysis of the received results show that ACCORD has 3 seats (3.9 percent), ACN 21 seats, (27.6 percent), APGA 2 seats (2.6 percent), CPC 5 seats (6.6 percent), LP 1 seat (1.3 percent), PDP 43 seats (56.6 percent), PPN 1 seat (1.3 percent).
The Coalition also has results by district.
Commentary on the elections is coming fast and furious. Helpful analyses of the results can be found at , , and . One thing many of these outlets stress is not only the pattern of the results and the strong showing for the opposition, but also the high profile of some defeated PDP members, such as the speaker of the house.
Do opposition gains mean trouble for President Jonathan? The writes, 鈥淭he results are an indication of the public mood ahead of presidential polls next weekend.鈥� That could worry Jonathan. On the other hand, praise for improvements in the electoral process is accruing to Jonathan in some segments of the . So the political signals are arguably mixed. In any case, presidents鈥� fates are not always completely tied to the performance of their parties.
My guide to the elections is for readers who want more background.
鈥� Alex Thurston is a PhD student studying Islam in Africa at Northwestern University and blogs at .
