What would it take to remove Ivory Coast's Gbagbo?
| Johannesburg, South Africa
After more than a month, the brinksmanship that has brought Ivory Coast back to civil war continues.
Two men, opposition leader Alassane Ouattara and incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo, claim to be president. Most electoral observers, the country鈥檚 electoral commission, the United Nations, and most world leaders (aside from Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe) have proclaimed Mr. Ouattara the winner of the Nov. 28 runoff election. The vote count itself shows that Ouattara won with an 8 percent point margin.
Mr. Gbagbo clings to his office mainly through the loyalty of his powerful southern-based party, and through the country鈥檚 army. The radio and TV stations he controls have been accused of against Ouattara鈥檚 party and ethnic group, and against the UN.
African Union mediators have come and gone, but the crisis continues.
West Africa鈥檚 strongest regional forum, the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS) , but that threat has done little to convince Gbagbos. Of course, this might have been because Nigeria鈥檚 own military is involved in several peacekeeping operations already, notably in Sudan鈥檚 Darfur region, and that one of the other major ECOWAS members, Ghana, said that it would not send troops.
So small wonder that the news headlines about possible 鈥渟olutions鈥� in Ivory Coast have taken on a boy-cries-wolf quality. Mr. Ouattara鈥檚 envoy to the United Nations, Youssoufou Bamba, , after Ouattara opened the possibility of a coalition government with Gbagbo鈥檚 party, if Gbagbo himself steps aside.
Gbagbo "has followers, he has competent people in his party. Those people, we are prepared to work with them in the framework of a wide composite cabinet," Mr. Bamba told the BBC's HARDtalk television news program this week.
Efforts to whittle down Gbagbo鈥檚 hold on power 鈥� freezing his access to state bank accounts, for instance 鈥� have done little to encourage his cooperation in ending the crisis.
Fighting between soldiers loyal to Gbagbo and supporters of Ouattara broke out last week, with an , according to hospital officials in Abidjan. Even the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court at the Hague, Netherlands, warned that his court might investigate the former president, if violence grew too severe.
So what does it take to get Gbagbo (or for that matter, any African leader) to step aside once they've lost a bid for reelection?
Author Paul Collier, in an opinion column in the Guardian newspaper, suggests the best and perhaps only tool strong enough to remove Gbagbo is his own army. 鈥� perhaps by cutting off army salaries 鈥� and the leader might see it in his best interest to look for accommodations in the Cote D鈥橝zur instead of Cote D鈥橧voire.
Despite the happy rhetoric of African solutions for African problems, there is no solution in sight, unless it comes from within Ivory Coast itself.
