In Uganda, Museveni finds biggest election obstacle in former friends
Ugandans are still reeling from the arrest and release of two prominent politicians last week, a move that foreshadows a potentially explosive election next 聽year.
Last Friday, former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi and Kizza Besigye, a former presidential candidate, were placed under "preventive arrest" after announcing their intentions to challenge President Yoweri Museveni鈥檚 three decades in power in the 2016 election. They were released 12 hours later without charge.
It was only last month that David Sejusa, another presidential candidate, went through a similar episode. Each of these three challengers was at one time part of Mr. Museveni's tight inner circle, 鈥淭he Historicals,鈥� which has.
These former allies 鈥� many of whom fought beside Museveni in the Bush War that brought him to power in 1986 鈥� are now bitter enemies, and have become the strongest threat to his next run for another term.
鈥淭here 聽has been disaffection among many of The Historicals and Museveni鈥檚 associates for a long time,鈥� says Aili Tripp, a professor of politics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. 鈥淢ost 聽felt that Museveni has remained in power too long and needs to open up space for other leaders. Even those who once supported him feel the country needs a change.鈥�
The recent arrests show Museveni is aware of the threat against his weakening regime. And that political tension, built upon the dissatisfaction of generals and party leaders, has created an atmosphere where open conflict could erupt at anytime,.
鈥淚 think the arrests speak to the paranoia that I think is inevitable when a regime is in power for 30 years,鈥� says Joshua Rubongoya, a political science professor at Roanoke College. 鈥淎s legitimacy declines, coercion and the use of the state security apparatus becomes more and more profound and prominent.鈥�
Serious threats
Museveni鈥檚 聽former allies have been ramping up their opposition for years. Mr. Besigye, Museveni's physician during the Bush War, is running against him for the fourth time in the 2016 election.
The 聽fallout between the two men has been bitter. When Besigye first ran against Museveni in 2001, an election that the president won under murky circumstances, Museveni threatened to put Besigye "." Besigye's 2006 run was even more eventful: he was arrested for treason and rape, charges that were later dropped, and lost in what is.
But no threat, perhaps, is more serious, and personal, than that from Mr.聽 Mbabazi 鈥� once the prime minister and for decades Museveni鈥檚 righthand man. Also a veteran, he was known as, 聽at one point serving simultaneously as attorney general as well as defense and foreign affairs minister.
Until last year, he was Museveni鈥檚 presumed successor 鈥� which made Mbabazi's sudden dismissal from his prime ministership last year shocking to the nation and created a rift between聽 power players in Ugandan politics. Now he is running for the candidacy of Museveni鈥檚 own party, the National Resistance Movement.
鈥淢any 聽are eager to see Museveni leave power and if it appears that Mbabazi is 聽the one best poised to do that, they may support him,鈥� says Ms. Tripp. 鈥淢uch will depend on whether Mbabazi can work with the opposition coalition, The Democratic Alliance.鈥�
'A product of his own design'
Each 聽of these challengers faces a difficult battle. Mbabazi and Mr. Sejusa, in particular, are accused of being instrumental to the very government they now they decry.
On one hand, Sejusa had been Museveni鈥檚 spymaster for decades and has overseen multiple deadly operations and arrests. His announcement of a staged coup attempt in 2013, that would have placed the blame on of Museveni鈥檚 inner circle, forced him to flee to London for two years before returning late last year.
On the other hand, Mbabazi was. In 2005, he supported an to allow Museveni to run for another term, and he supported the giving police officers control over who is allowed to hold a public meeting. Mbabazi says he now regrets both of those moves.
鈥淭he very machinery of the [ruling] party that are now incarcerating him are a product of his own design,鈥� Mr. Rubongoya says.
Museveni in control
Museveni still holds strong support, and commands an army of loyal electoral commissioners, a vast spy network, and the most powerful arms of the military.
Furthermore, Museveni benefits from a very divided opposition, an operative in Sejusa鈥檚 camp told this reporter.
鈥淚f the opposition had its act together, by now they would have a unified candidate to canvas the country,鈥� Rubongoya says.
But the threat is being felt by Museveni. Joseph Bbosa, a member of the opposition Uganda People鈥檚 Congress, told a that last week鈥檚 arrests were an indicator that the 2016 elections will not be free and fair.
鈥淢r.聽 Museveni quakes during election time and wants your legs and hands to be tied on a 50kg bag of cement so that you have no power to harm him.鈥�
