海角大神

Pirate attacks off Somalia have plummeted 65 percent, to聽their lowest level since 2009, but analysts warn that these gains could be reversed without sustained efforts to cement聽security onshore.

Between January and September this year, Somali pirates carried out 70聽raids, down from 199 for the same stretch in 2011.

During the monsoon months of July, August, and September, pirates attempted only one聽hijacking, which failed, compared to 36 such incidents in聽the same period last year.

Releasing these latest figures, the International Maritime Bureau聽(IMB) credited international naval patrols and the use of armed guards聽on ships as the major factors that thwarted fresh attacks.

鈥淲e welcome the successful robust targeting of pirate action groups by聽international navies in the high risk waters off Somalia, ensuring聽these criminals are removed before they can threaten ships,鈥� Capt. Pottengal Mukundan, director of the IMB, said in a statement.

Still 188 hostages

This year鈥檚 drop in attacks off the coast of Somalia helped pull global piracy聽figures to their lowest third quarter total since 2008, the IMB added,聽with 125 vessels boarded, 24 hijacked, 26 fired upon, and 58 attempted聽attacks.

Despite the gains, Somali pirates were still holding 11 vessels with聽167 crew members hostage, as well as 21 other crew members being held聽on land.

More than 20 of those hostages have been held for more than 30 months,聽the IMB said.

鈥淚t鈥檚 good news that hijackings are down, but there can be no room for聽complacency: These waters are still extremely high-risk and the naval聽presence must be maintained,鈥� Captain Mukundan added.

Piracy off Somalia鈥檚 coastline 鈥� Africa鈥檚 longest 鈥� soared from 2007,聽when armed gangs onshore began targeting the large numbers of ships聽carrying valuable cargo passing through the Gulf of Aden en route to聽the Suez Canal.

By 2010, the cost of the pirate attacks was estimated at $12聽billion, taking into account higher insurance premiums, new security聽measures, rerouting ships, and ransom payments. Ransoms reached as high as聽$9 million for a South Korean oil supertanker seized in 2010.

Roughly three dozen warships from the navies of the US, Britain, the聽European Union, Russia, China, India, and others have since been
deployed to patrol more than one million square miles of ocean off聽Somalia.

Barbed-wire on railings

As many as four in five vessels motoring through the Gulf of Aden聽or south past Somalia鈥檚 coast now contract armed guards, roll barbed聽wire along deck railings, and carry powerful hoses, all as anti-piracy measures.

Piracy experts reckon that it is these new tactics that have made the聽most significant contribution to the reduction in successful attacks聽off Somalia in recent years.

In 2009, one in three ships that pirates targeted were successfully聽seized, their crew taken hostage. Now, that figure is closer to one聽in 20, according to Stig Jarle Hansen, a Norwegian piracy expert.

鈥淭here is a golden opportunity at the moment, but the international聽community, the navies and the private security, cannot let down their聽guard,鈥� Professor Hansen says.

鈥淩est assured that the organization and apparatus of the pirates聽onshore has not been dismantled, and as soon as there is any sign of a聽lack of continued interest by the international community, this thing聽will come back.鈥�

It has long been argued that greater stability in Somalia itself will聽be the fastest way to stamp out piracy, by creating greater聽opportunities for legal employment, and instituting a national justice聽system to prosecute those that stray.

While there have been impressive recent gains for Somalia鈥檚聽government, most of the new territory it now controls is south of聽Mogadishu, in areas once run by Al Shabab, the country鈥檚 Islamist聽rebels.

In pirate havens north of the capital, the warlords and armed gangs聽still rule, and it is likely that bringing these groups to heel will聽take far longer.

Kingpins still at large

At the same time, Prof Hansen adds, there have been no prosecutions of聽the main investors and 鈥渒ingpins鈥� who finance pirate groups in return聽for a slice of future ransoms.

鈥淭hey are moving into other sectors 鈥� import, export, that kind of聽thing 鈥� but they are still there, apparently immune from arrest,聽waiting it out,鈥� he says.

Key to consigning Somali piracy permanently to the history books is to聽target this relatively small number of men at the apex of the聽business, said Thomas Kelly, the State Department鈥檚 counter-piracy聽policy chief.

He aims to shift attention to this core group and seek prosecutions聽under money-laundering and corruption laws rather than sea piracy聽legislation.

鈥淭hat's how we got Al Capone, he went to jail because of tax fraud.聽One of the main areas of multilateral work and in places like Interpol聽is to try to focus on the kingpins,鈥� he told Britain鈥檚 Daily Telegraph聽newspaper recently.

"You have to go after the people who are buying the boats, buying the聽weapons, and then laundering the money in Africa and other places.聽Money laundering is a global business they're not keeping it in one聽place you need to have law enforcement in many different places聽talking to each other.

鈥淛ust incarcerating young Somali men who are the foot soldiers isn't聽going to eradicate the problem by itself.鈥�