Five years after death of John Garang, a divided Sudan wonders: What if?
| Juba, South Sudan
Crowding the tops of the city鈥檚 roofs, vehicles, and trees, a sea of faces struggled to catch a glimpse of the US-educated African bush guerrilla.
John Garang de Mabior 鈥� the burly, coal-skinned Sudanese Dinka known simply as 鈥淒r. Garang鈥� to most of his followers 鈥� had arrived in Sudan鈥檚 capital, Khartoum, having signed a peace deal ending the two-decade rebellion he led in the nation鈥檚 marginalized south. Some one million turned out to greet him.
Less than one month later 鈥� on July 30, 2005 鈥� the tenacious leader was Sudan鈥檚 new vice president, and dead. Five years later, the optimism spurred by the peace deal has largely faded and Sudan鈥檚 split appears imminent. A January 2011 secession referendum in the south is expected to result in either the country鈥檚 division, renewed war, or both.
Indeed, even the scene at Garang's grave today was starkly secessionist, with thousands of southern Sudanese gathering to pay vigil and wave southern Sudanese flags. Hundreds of southern police officers and troops marched in the streets of Juba.
Many still wonder: What if Garang had not died in a helicopter crash that fateful July day?
Africa鈥檚 largest country has always been one of its most troubled, plagued by peripheral rebellions since before its 1956 birth. Garang thought he had the cure. He called it the 鈥淣ew Sudan.鈥� Democratic, secular, and united, Garang鈥檚 dream nation would share power and wealth across its vast landscape and diverse peoples, both 海角大神s and Muslims, 鈥淎frican鈥� and 鈥淎rab.鈥� Sudan did not have a 鈥淪outhern problem鈥� or a 鈥�Darfur problem,鈥� Garang argued.
He thought the nation had a rotten core which needed replacing. It was a task which was to consume his life.
From Sudan to Iowa to Ethiopia
Born in the south鈥檚 Jonglei state, John Garang鈥檚 path split early from his cattle-herding peers. A restless youth, he made his way to Julius Nyerere鈥檚 socialist Tanzania, where he received schooling alongside other future contemporary revolutionaries: Uganda鈥檚 Yoweri Museveni, Rwanda鈥檚 Paul Kagame, and the late Congolese leader Laurent Kabila.
He then left for the United States, where he found his way to Iowa鈥檚 bookish Grinnell College. The Midwestern state鈥檚 cattle and crops must have felt familiar; he later returned to earn his master鈥檚 and PhD at Iowa State University.
In 1983, with a flimsy 1972 peace deal collapsing, Garang was serving in the Sudanese Army. He and fellow Army conspirators mutinied, finding haven in neighboring Ethiopia, and for the next two decades he led the burgeoning rebellion 鈥� dubbed the Sudan People鈥檚 Liberation Movement 鈥� with iron-fisted determination.
By 2002, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir鈥檚 National Congress Party was ready to negotiate. In the 2005 pact, Garang secured a coalition national government and key wealth-sharing arrangement for the south鈥檚 oil fields.
Without a unifier, divisions set in
Southern Sudan was granted regional autonomy 鈥� Garang as its president 鈥� leading up to a January 2011 referendum in which the south can choose to secede. Both sides promised to make unity 鈥渁ttractive鈥� in the interim. Under Garang鈥檚 lead, SPLM 鈥� although southern-based 鈥� had officially stayed a unionist party, cultivating strong party structures across the north and the south. That all changed after his death.
According to Peter Adwok Nyaba, an outspoken member of SPLM鈥檚 top political body, the SPLM immediately fell into the hands of staunch separatists. The party, lacking Garang鈥檚 political skills and vision, began to weaken. 鈥淲ith the death of Garang, a power gap occurred in the SPLM and this was easily reflected in its engagement with the NCP and other northern parties,鈥� Mr. Nyaba wrote last year.
When Sudan went to the polls in April, which saw President Bashir reelected president, north and south appeared more discordant than ever.
鈥淪udan is dividing,鈥� said Pagan Amum, secretary-general of today鈥檚 SPLM, in an interview in the south鈥檚 capital, Juba, following Sudan鈥檚 April elections. 鈥淭he winner Bashir with his Islamist agenda gives the south no option but to secede,鈥� Amum said. 鈥淯nity has not been made attractive.鈥�
'If Garang was still around...'
Noticeably absent from the list of challengers to Bashir was Salva Kiir, Garang鈥檚 longtime loyal deputy and default successor. Mr. Kiir, a life-long military man with little education, never appeared comfortable filling Garang鈥檚 role on the national stage. In April, Kiir ran to retain his regional presidency of Southern Sudan instead of aiming for the nation鈥檚 top seat.
Kiir鈥檚 decision followed a secessionist trend evident in the SPLM since Garang鈥檚 death, say analysts.
Today, among Southern Sudanese, 鈥淚f Garang was still around...鈥� is a phrase often heard privately, preceding criticism of the region鈥檚 lost political pull. Among aid workers, the phrase has become a sort of obligatory caveat to their litany of frustrations. In Juba鈥檚 expat-filled bars, the 鈥渨hat If鈥� game abounds.
But whether a peacefully united 鈥淣ew Sudan鈥� was ever possible is a question whose answer appears to have been buried along with Garang five years ago.
鈥淓ven while he was alive, many senior SPLM members were actually fighting for secession. The majority of people in the south have always been secessionists,鈥� says John Ashworth, a long-time Sudan observer with close ties to the south. 鈥淎fter his death, it became clear that unity was not going to be given a chance."
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