US and Israel launch broad campaign against Iran
| London
Choosing war over diplomacy on Iran, the United States and Israel launched waves of airstrikes against military and civilian targets in cities across the Islamic Republic on Saturday.
The first U.S.-Israeli strikes came at 9:45 a.m. local time in Tehran. Iran鈥檚 supreme leader鈥檚 complex and offices of the president and Supreme National Security Council 鈥� among a multitude of missile and nuclear targets across the country 鈥� were targeted, according to reports.
Iran immediately struck back, firing volleys of missiles at Israel, as well as Arab and Gulf nations Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Jordan, which have hosted U.S. forces or facilitated the strikes. Loud explosions could be heard as missiles impacted or were shot down by air defenses from Tel Aviv, Israel, to Abu Dhabi, UAE.
Why We Wrote This
Nearly a half-century into its existence, the Iranian regime 鈥� already weakened by targeted U.S. and Israeli strikes last summer 鈥� is now facing a potentially existential threat.
President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu both emphasized that the goal is regime change.
The American attack was 鈥渕assive and ongoing,鈥� Mr. Trump said in an eight-minute video posted on Truth Social, warning Iranians to take shelter because 鈥渂ombs will be dropping everywhere.鈥�
鈥淣ow is the time to seize control of your destiny,鈥� he said, addressing the Iranian people, 鈥渁nd to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach.鈥�
Mr. Netanyahu said that the U.S. and Israel had 鈥渆mbarked on an operation to remove the existential threat posed by the terrorist regime in Iran,鈥� which had 鈥渟pilled our blood, murdered many Americans, and massacred its own people.鈥�
The joint strikes, he said, would enable the 鈥渂rave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands鈥� and 鈥渞id themselves of the yoke of tyranny.鈥�
Mr. Trump said the campaign would ensure that Iran would 鈥渘ever have a nuclear weapon,鈥� and offered a broader context of retribution, noting a list of anti-American actions by the Islamic Republic during its 47 years in power. The U.S. would destroy Iran鈥檚 missile arsenal, 鈥渁nnihilate鈥� its navy, and stop the threat of Iran鈥檚 regional militia allies, he said.
鈥淭he goal is to create all the conditions for the downfall of the Iranian regime,鈥� a senior Israeli official told Israeli journalist Barak Ravid of Axios. 鈥淲e are targeting the entire Iranian leadership 鈥� political and military 鈥� past, present, and future.鈥�
鈥淭his is a regime change war,鈥� says Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group.
鈥淔rom what the president says 鈥� and every indication here is this is going to be a massive deployment and use of airpower to bring down the Iranian regime 鈥� it鈥檚 not aimed at resolving a narrow set of problems, or any specific problem with Iran; it鈥檚 to resolve the problem altogether by getting rid of this regime.
鈥淭he fact that there is no precedent for regime change with the sole use of airpower is a different question,鈥� says. Dr. Vaez.
Associated Press
As U.S. forces built up around Iran in recent weeks, Mr. Trump warned Iran鈥檚 leadership it would be 鈥渉it hard鈥� if street protests in January were put down with lethal violence. At least 7,000 people were nevertheless killed in an unprecedented two-day crackdown.
The White House has since expanded its reasons for striking Iran to include not acceding to stated U.S. demands to give up its nuclear program, limit missile ranges, and dismantle its regional network of militia allies.
In a bid to deter an attack, Tehran vowed that even a limited strike would be met with a ferocious, all-out response that would target Israel, U.S. bases across the Middle East, and U.S. allies in the region.
Iran has been preparing for this since last June, when Israel assassinated a top echelon of Revolutionary Guard commanders and the U.S. hit nuclear sites with bunker-busting bombs during a 12-day military campaign. The regime has put measures in place to ensure that its command structures 鈥� from supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on down 鈥� identified in advance at least four layers of successors to carry on the fight, in case top-level leaders are killed.
鈥淭his is a 鈥榰se it or lose it鈥� moment for the Iranians,鈥� says Dr. Vaez, contacted in Geneva. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not a question of calibrating their response, because if they don鈥檛 respond with everything they have, they will not get a second chance.
鈥淔rom their perspective, this is an existential threat, and therefore they would have to go out with everything that they have,鈥� he says. 鈥淚f they don鈥檛, it means that they can鈥檛. And if they can鈥檛, it means that the U.S. has succeeded in neutralizing their capacity before they could use it.鈥�
The American-Israeli strikes began just hours after Oman鈥檚 Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, who has been mediating nuclear talks in Geneva between the U.S. and Iran, announced that 鈥渟ignificant progress鈥� had been made in the third round on Thursday. He told CBS News late Friday that a deal was 鈥渨ithin our reach鈥� 鈥� if the primary goal, in fact, was to ensure that Iran could not build a nuclear weapon, 鈥渇orever.鈥� Discussions had been scheduled to resume Monday.
The Israel Defense Forces issued an 鈥渦rgent warning鈥� to Iranians to vacate weapons production factories and military infrastructure, or risk their lives.
Analysts say the risks of a prolonged Iran campaign echo those of the American 2003 invasion of Iraq, which successfully toppled dictator Saddam Hussein, but led to a yearslong military quagmire that left more than 4,000 U.S. service members dead. Mr. Trump has railed against such foreign intervention and the 鈥渇orever wars鈥� waged by the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan.
If the Islamic Republic is toppled, success for the U.S. also depends on the day after. Mr. Trump told Iranians, 鈥淭his is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.鈥� Mr. Trump called upon Iranian security forces to 鈥渓ay down your weapons鈥� in exchange for 鈥渢otal immunity,鈥� or face 鈥渃ertain death.鈥�
鈥淭his is a war of choice with consequences that could last for a generation,鈥� which 鈥渃learly shows that the U.S. has not learned the lessons from Iraq,鈥� says Dr. Vaez.
鈥淚 think it is wishful thinking that the people will come out in the aftermath of this war and will finish the job,鈥� says Dr. Vaez. 鈥淚t is quite unlikely that the U.S. would be able to disarm and dismantle the Iranian state completely. If there are even remnants of the security forces that survive, they would still have the upper hand, in terms of monopoly of force.
鈥淵es, people are frustrated with the Iranian regime, and would like to see its back, and some would welcome intervention,鈥� he adds. 鈥淏ut foreign intervention without boots on the ground has never resulted in regime change anywhere in the world 鈥� there is simply no precedent for it.鈥�
