海角大神

鈥淭he world is watching.鈥� The words, spoken by U.S. President Joe Biden in last week鈥檚 inaugural address, were true. But they told only half the story: The world wasn鈥檛 just watching, it was wondering.

Amid the daunting domestic challenges President Biden faces, America鈥檚 friends and foes alike were wondering the same thing: How quickly and decisively would he, or could he, fulfill his pledge to reclaim and redefine America鈥檚 place in the world?

In other words, which of three menu options would guide the president and his foreign policy team?

Would they click on Go Big?

Lie Low?

Or Steady the Ship?

Each offers temptations. Each also holds pitfalls. But 鈥� spoiler alert 鈥� the balance of risk and reward is making one of them likeliest, at least for the near future.

Go Big would mean not only reconnecting with allies and international organizations shunned by former President Donald Trump, but energetically reasserting American leadership. This jibes with Mr. Biden鈥檚 own deeply held view of the U.S. as a key voice in tackling international challenges, safeguarding global stability, and advancing the shared interests of democratic allies.

The new president has been nodding in this direction since the day he took office, especially when it comes to topics he has characterized as 鈥渢omorrow鈥檚 challenges,鈥� such as climate change and dealing both with COVID-19 and potential future pandemics.

In announcing his administration was rejoining the Paris climate accords and the World Health Organization on Day One, he clearly meant for the U.S. to do more than just make up the numbers. After all, he has named a 鈥渃limate envoy鈥� to his cabinet: John Kerry, the former secretary of state who affixed America鈥檚 signature to the Paris Agreement.

Some, however, would like him to go further. One of Mr. Biden鈥檚 friends, former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, is urging the president to propose a special summit of the G-20 group of leading world economies to spearhead 鈥渆mergency global action鈥� on climate change and the interlocking health and economic crisis caused by the pandemic.

He also wants the Biden administration, along with Europe, to stump up the $30 billion needed to ensure COVID-19 vaccinations for the entire world.

Will all that happen? It is possible. Yet given the enormous scale of the domestic tests Mr. Biden has set himself 鈥� curbing the pandemic, rescuing the economy, and healing a bitterly divided nation 鈥� the administration may lack the bandwidth to 鈥済o big鈥� internationally.

That鈥檚 why Menu Option 2 鈥� Lie Low 鈥� might seem enticing. In essence, it would limit early foreign policy moves to basic reengagement and patching up frayed alliances, while deferring broader action until Mr. Biden has made a significant dent in his to-do list at home.

But there鈥檚 one huge impediment to lying low, which pretty much rules that option out.

Just in his first week in office, the president has had to consider a raft of real-world issues, ranging from provocative flights by Chinese jets near Taiwan and widespread street protests in Russia to a refugee caravan heading toward the southern U.S. border. Plus, the last surviving arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia is due to expire early next month.

The administration may see advantages in putting the outside world on hold.

But the world isn鈥檛 going to put America on hold.

So, on balance, the third option 鈥� Steady the Ship 鈥� would seem most likely, at least for now. That doesn鈥檛 imply doing nothing. It has already meant rejoining Paris and the WHO, as well as signaling support for a five-year extension of the New START arms accord with Moscow. At the same time, the administration has taken a stern line on Russia鈥檚 arrest of opposition politician聽Alexei Navalny and of protesters who turned out to support him, as well as announcing a review of Washington鈥檚 strategy toward Beijing, declaring that China had become 鈥渕ore authoritarian at home, and more assertive abroad.鈥澛�

The president, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and national security aides will be busy talking to key allies on all these issues in the coming weeks. They鈥檒l also be working to define a post-Trumpian approach to a pair of especially thorny challenges: a nuclear-armed North Korea and an Iranian regime drawing ever closer to its own nuclear capability.

Yet how successful Washington will be in re-engaging the world, whichever option it chooses, could still depend on what happens at home.

The past four years haven鈥檛 just damaged U.S. alliances overseas, raising questions about America鈥檚 reliability as a partner.

The virtually unchecked spread of the pandemic in the U.S., the assault on the Capitol challenging the results of the presidential election, and continuing evidence of deep anger and political divisions 鈥� all these have badly tainted America鈥檚 image as the world鈥檚 exemplary, stable democracy.

Another line from Mr. Biden鈥檚 inaugural speech, which was not just lofty rhetoric but trenchantly accurate, summed up the challenge that implies.

America, he said, must be able to lead 鈥渘ot merely by the example of our power, but by the power of our example.鈥�