海角大神

Lots happened in 2014.听The news was a daily parade of discrete events. Here are some, picked (almost) at random: Afghan opium production hit a record high, calling into question government control outside Kabul. More investment cash flowed out of China than in, showing how important Beijing has become to global prosperity. Men favored Republicans by 16 points in the US midterms, a gender gap that helps explain the GOP鈥檚 big election gains.

Also, President Obama pardoned a Thanksgiving turkey. Sasha and Malia were there. Then a GOP aide snarked on Facebook about the first daughters鈥� demeanor, and cable news went to DEFCON 鈥淕eraldo.鈥� Moral: Think before posting. The job you lose could be your own.

Is there meaning in this annual procession of stories? Are there songs in the noise or just trumpets blaring random notes? That鈥檚 the question facing the person staring at the screen, or less frequently nowadays, the newsprint. On the Web it鈥檚 easy to skitter from one unconnected piece to another. You end up dissatisfied, sometimes even confused.

But pull back and some patterns become apparent. They aren鈥檛 always permanent. Some people see things with different connections. But the patterns are a way of trying to understand the onward march of our world. Here are 10 we picked out from this year.听听

DEADLY START-UPS

It鈥檚 an activity long dominated by big legacy organizations. But younger, agile competitors are surfing the chaos of new markets. They鈥檝e harnessed the power of social media to push their message and attract new recruits.

That description could fit industries from media to medicine. But in this case we鈥檙e talking about terrorism. Al Qaeda is the symbol of the old guard. Islamic State is the most prominent of a number of rising spinoffs.

It was a big year for the brutal IS: It seized territory across a broad swath of Syria and Iraq. US intelligence says IS operatives are now the best terror propagandists in the world. They spread horror in the West with videos of beheadings while attracting foreign fighters with slick recruiting pleas.

IS controls its own 鈥渟tate鈥� in large part because of the collapse of local authority. Syria鈥檚 civil war and Iraq鈥檚 sectarian divisions opened the door for IS forces to roll in. That same vacuum of disorder exists across a crescent from North Africa, through the Middle East, and into South Asia. Libya, Egypt, Yemen, and Pakistan are some of the nations at risk.

There are perhaps 11 separate Islamist extremist groups in this crescent, according to the US director of national intelligence. They help local insurgencies and exploit governments鈥� inability to fight back. Collectively they鈥檝e passed what remains of Al Qaeda鈥檚 senior leadership as the top worry of US counterterrorism officials.

鈥淭丑别 threat now comes from a decentralized array of organizations and networks. [IS] is only one of the groups that we鈥檙e concerned about,鈥� said Matthew Olsen, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, in an appearance at the Brookings Institution in Washington this fall. Right now these local extremists are focused on local fights. Eventually they might turn to more direct confrontation with the West. But for them, will 鈥渆ventually鈥� ever come?听

The National Intelligence Council鈥檚 鈥淕lobal Trends鈥� report holds that the era of Islamist terror may be receding. Ultimate US withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan will deprive the movement of energy, goes the thinking here. Plus, IS and other groups may be overextended. They鈥檙e vulnerable to counterattack if central governments rally.听

BORDERLINE CALLS听

Nations aren鈥檛 immutable. That鈥檚 one big lesson taught by the events of 2014. Some potentially historic divisions didn鈥檛 happen: Scotland is still part of the United Kingdom. The IS 鈥渘ation鈥� carved from Syria and Iraq will likely collapse in the end. But Iraq itself is showing fissures as the Kurds press for greater and greater levels of autonomy. And the Russian-backed redrawing of Ukraine鈥檚 borders could transform the geopolitics of Europe and the West.听

鈥淭丑别 United States and Europe have yet to address the growing threat that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin鈥檚 revanchist ambitions pose,鈥� writes Heather A. Conley, director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in a report called the 鈥�CSIS Global Forecast 2015.鈥�

Scotland鈥檚 almost-independence was something of a surprise. The 鈥渘o鈥� side seemed comfortably ahead in the months leading up to September鈥檚 referendum. But a funny thing happened on the way to the status quo: As the vote approached, surveys showed it too close to call. A panicked British government promised Scots yet more devolved powers.

In the end tradition prevailed, 55 percent to 45 percent. It鈥檚 just a matter of time until the Scottish National Party renews its separatist push, however. And similar movements in other democratic nations are surely taking note of how much the Scots have already won.

The rumbling in Iraq, in contrast, was easily foretold. The 2003 US invasion loosed sectarian tensions long bottled up by the Saddam Hussein regime. The Shiite Arab-led government in Baghdad has to this point shown only halting interest in placating Sunnis and Kurds 鈥� one reason IS was able to roll easily into Iraq鈥檚 western Sunni heartland. Perhaps new Iraqi President Haider al-Abadi will do better. He鈥檚 already settled a long-running dispute with the Kurds over sharing oil revenue. But he struck that deal under immense US pressure.

鈥淲ill this good news be built on? The history of Iraq since 2003 is far from filled with examples of sectarian and ethnic compromise,鈥� wrote the Monitor鈥檚 Dan Murphy this fall.

Meanwhile, the Russian flag flies over Crimea. Russian-backed separatists are dug in throughout eastern Ukraine. Mr. Putin gives every impression that he considers this state of affairs permanent. It鈥檚 all so retro 鈥� cold war, redux.

Will Putin really sacrifice Russia鈥檚 ties with Germany, et al., for renewed influence in a small slice of the old Soviet Union? Maybe so. Sanctions, plus the falling price of oil, are now pushing Russia into recession. Perhaps Putin has bet on nationalism to maintain his popularity at home (see below).

RETURN OF THE POTENTATES听听

Putin鈥檚 push into Ukraine smacks of the personality-based diplomacy of the past. When he returned to Russia鈥檚 presidency in May 2012, he faced a choice: Broaden the economy with structural reforms, or protect his crony鈥檚 pocketbooks. He picked the latter and tried czarist-like appeals to traditional Russian values to maintain his popularity at home.

Western sanctions might actually help him here. They鈥檒l be an excuse for Russia鈥檚 economic troubles and a symbol of adversaries abroad.听

鈥淧utin clearly has made a Faustian bargain with Russian nationalism and oligarchic predators with unpredictable consequences for Russia鈥檚 neighbors, regional security, and the Russian people,鈥� writes Andrew Kuchins, director of the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program, in 鈥淕lobal Forecast 2015.鈥�

But Putin鈥檚 worried about more than NATO rolling up to his western borders. In the east he鈥檚 suddenly facing a tough authoritarian much like himself: China鈥檚 Xi Jinping.听

In the past 20 months Mr. Xi has rolled up rivals in a vast anti-
听corruption campaign while squashing civil society. He鈥檚 aggressively asserted Chinese territorial claims in the Pacific 惫颈蝉-脿-惫颈蝉 Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and the US, wrote the Monitor鈥檚 Robert Marquand in October. And he鈥檚 pushing a 鈥淐hina dream鈥� of wealth and status designed to appeal to the nation鈥檚 growing middle class.

鈥淣ot since Mao has a Chinese leader pushed so complete a program of old-style Communist Party values and blunt force,鈥� wrote Mr. Marquand.

Moscow is worried that Beijing鈥檚 rapacious appetite for natural resources will eventually collide with Russia鈥檚 interests in Siberia and its own far east. Xi, for his part, has more than Putin on his mind. He鈥檚 also concerned about relations with yet another rising dynamic leader: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who assumed office in May.

China and India are historical rivals. But Xi and Mr. Modi have expressed interest in burying the past and combining their economic strengths to the betterment of both countries.听

鈥淭丑别 combination of 鈥榯he world鈥檚 factory鈥� and 鈥榯he world鈥檚 back office鈥� will produce the most competitive production base and the most attractive consumer market,鈥� Xi said in an opinion piece in The Hindu during a high-profile trip to India in September.

If that happened it would drive Putin crazy 鈥� and have important economic implications for the US.

NEW WORLD ORG CHART听听

Get ready for a shock, America: You鈥檙e now No. 2. That鈥檚 right, the runner-up. A silver medalist. In 2014 China passed the US to become the world鈥檚 biggest economy, by one measure.

Adjusting figures for purchasing power parity, China in 2014 produced $17.6 trillion in goods and services, according to the International Monetary Fund. The US produced $17.4 trillion. The last time the US was second in world economic rankings presidents still wore beards.听

This 鈥渃ould very well be the Chinese century,鈥� Lloyd Blankfein, the chairman and chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs, said at the DealBook Conference in New York recently.

The caveat here is that purchasing power parity isn鈥檛 a perfect way to compare gross domestic products. It adjusts for the fact that prices are different in different countries. A Big Mac in China costs a lot less than the same burger in the US. So PPP gauges how much stuff a nation鈥檚 people and companies could buy at home.

By the more traditional nominal GDP measurement, the US is still way ahead. It annually produces almost twice as much as China in terms of world market value: about $17 trillion versus $9 trillion.

But PPP is a useful gauge of how an economy affects actual people. It reflects what鈥檚 happening to their standard of living. In that context China鈥檚 rise is good news. It鈥檚 a powerful indicator of the ascending world middle class.

Middle classes are poised to explode in developing nations in coming years, according to the National Intelligence Council鈥檚 鈥淕lobal Trends 2030.鈥� The number of people with middle-class incomes will go from 1 billion to more than 2 billion in the next 15 years, according to the NIC.

This could represent a tectonic shift in affected societies.

鈥淭丑别 hundreds of millions of entrants into the middle classes throughout all regions of the world create the possibility of a global 鈥榗itizenry鈥� with a positive effect on the global economy and world politics,鈥� writes the NIC.

SAUDI AMERICA?听

Yes, China鈥檚 a huge economic power on the rise. But the US might be a surprise No. 1 in an important subcategory of world production. Some analysts say America has passed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the biggest oil baron on the planet. That鈥檚 the result of the fracking boom.

In July, a Bank of America report said US daily petroleum output exceeded 11 million barrels per day in the first quarter. That would be a touch higher than the 10 million b.p.d. output of Saudi Arabia, long-reigning production champ. Much of the increase for the US is centered in Texas and North Dakota, which together account for about half of the nation鈥檚 oil output. Those states are the epicenter of US fracking, the use of high-pressure fluids to fracture oil shale rock.听

Not everyone thinks US oil output has reached the 11 million b.p.d. level. The Energy Information Administration judges that the US monthly production average has been closer to 8 million b.p.d. this year. But it鈥檚 clear that 2014 was a big year for US energy. If the US isn鈥檛 No. 1 yet, it may be soon.

The upshot of increased US production is now visible at the pump. Beginning in June, oil prices began to collapse because of newfound supply and tepid demand. Average US gas prices are now at levels not seen since 2009.

VANISHING SOUTHERN DEMOCRATS听

It鈥檚 the end of a political era in the US South. In 2015 the region won鈥檛 have any more Democrats in high political positions. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) of Louisiana was the last of the class, and she lost a Dec. 6 runoff election to Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy. That means no more Deep South Democrats in the US Senate or governor鈥檚 chairs. Similarly, Southern state legislatures are now 100 percent GOP-controlled.

What happened? Partly it鈥檚 the result of President Obama. He鈥檚 very unpopular in Louisiana in particular and the South in general. Incumbent Democrats who鈥檇 voted for his important policies were soundly defeated. Ms. Landrieu wasn鈥檛 the only one dragged down. Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor lost in Arkansas. Sen. Kay Hagan lost in North Carolina (which, to be accurate, is more purple than Dixie as a whole).

More broadly it鈥檚 the endgame of longstanding racial trends.听

鈥淲hite Southerners have been moving to the GOP for decades, starting with the civil rights era of the 1960s,鈥� wrote the Monitor鈥檚 Linda Feldmann in December.

Social issues still loom large in the South, according to Ms. Feldmann, and many whites in the region don鈥檛 agree with the Democratic positions on guns, gay rights, abortion, etc. Compared with the nation as a whole, Southern whites are 48 percent more Republican today than in 1976, according to a Washington Post analysis of exit polls.听

That shift was clear in Landrieu鈥檚 loss. Six years ago she got 33 percent of the white vote. In 2014, she got 18 percent.

Finally, there鈥檚 the personal angle. Or rather the lack of a personal angle. Some political scientists say that today Senate and House candidates鈥� experience and personal qualities matter much less than they used to.

That鈥檚 due to polarization. With voters more firmly sorted into Republican and Democratic camps, they鈥檙e more prone to vote straight party tickets, and less likely to care that an incumbent won federal funds for a town bridge.

Well-known Democrats used to win high office in the South even in years Republicans carried their states at the presidential level. In 1988, Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D) of Texas cruised to reelection while the Michael Dukakis/Bentsen presidential ticket was simultaneously crushed in the Lone Star State.

That kind of split ticket vote now seems gone with the wind, and not just in the South.

鈥淢any fewer voters were willing to go against their presidential party preferences in 2014 than they were in 1988,鈥� wrote Brian Arbour, an associate professor of political science at John Jay College, City University of New York, in the Monkey Cage poli-sci blog.听听

FERGUSON FALLOUT

On Aug. 9, an unarmed black 18-year-old named Michael Brown was shot by a white policeman in Ferguson, Mo., a suburb of St. Louis. That 鈥� and the riots afterward 鈥� made the old fissure of race perhaps 2014鈥檚 biggest public issue. Many blacks don鈥檛 trust cops, polls show, while most whites do. Black mistrust is rooted in experience 鈥� they鈥檙e far more likely to be stopped by police for even minor infractions. Meanwhile, whites still control political power in lots of towns like Ferguson where minorities are becoming the majority. African-Americans are tired of feeling the justice system is stacked against them.

Subsequent events made the racial rift starker. A St. Louis County grand jury declined to indict Darren Wilson, the police officer who shot Mr. Brown. A Staten Island, N.Y., grand jury declined to indict Daniel Pantaleo, a white policeman who killed Eric Garner with a chokehold. In Cleveland, a rookie cop shot and killed 12-year-old Tamir Rice for brandishing an air gun that fires plastic pellets.

This is a 鈥渟ystemic problem ... black folks and Latinos and others are not just making this up,鈥� said Mr. Obama in an interview with Black Entertainment Television in December.

The good news is there is progress, noted the president. Overt racism has declined while more subtle forms of discrimination remain entrenched. Younger people have evolved on race amid much greater exposure to multiculturalism.

Ferguson and other cases should lead to specific reforms. There will be more police wearing cameras, fewer militarized police riot units, and more minority faces in uniform.

But America鈥檚 racial rift remains a challenge in a country where 80 percent of blacks said the Brown shooting raised important issues about race, according to a Pew Research Center poll, while only 37 percent of whites agreed.

In that context the impact of the Garner case in Staten Island may turn out to be larger than that of the Brown case in Ferguson. Both whites and minorities say they鈥檙e disturbed about the facts of that case, in large part because of the presence of a video that shows Mr. Garner saying he 鈥渃an鈥檛 breathe鈥� while being subdued.听

鈥淢r. Brown鈥檚 death largely divided Americans along racial lines and political lines. The early reactions to the Garner death suggest that Americans are far more united in their response,鈥� wrote the Monitor鈥檚 Feldmann.

THE EARTH AS A SAUNA听

The Northern Hemisphere can be pretty frosty this time of year. But the depths of December in Baudette, Minn., or Friendship, Maine, can be deceiving. In fact, 2014 is on pace to at least tie for the warmest year in recorded history, according to the United Nations World Meteorological Organization.听

WMO data shows the global average temperature from January through October was 1.03 degrees F. above the average of the temperatures of 1961 through 1990, which scientists use as a baseline. That鈥檚 the same as the reigning hottest year of 2010.

Much of this spike is due to higher-than-average ocean surface temperatures, according to the WMO. If those temperatures persisted in November and December 鈥� and it鈥檚 likely they did 鈥� then 2014 will enter the books as the hottest year on record.

鈥淭丑别 provisional information for 2014 means that 14 of the 15 warmest years on record have all occurred in the 21st century,鈥� said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud in early December. 鈥淭丑别re is no standstill in global warming.鈥�

The scientific consensus is that this trend is man-made. The concentration in the atmosphere of carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas, is now 42 percent higher than it was at the start of the Industrial Revolution.

This sets the stage for coming climate negotiations. In Paris at the end of next year, world representatives are supposed to meet to hammer out a sweeping new agreement on greenhouse gas limits.

The US, the European Union, and China have all pledged new restrictions of their own. But India, Russia, Japan, and some other big nations haven鈥檛. How this plays out 鈥� and whether the US, the EU, and China can translate their commitments into action 鈥� may develop into one of the biggest geopolitical stories of 2015.

TELEVISION鈥橲 NEW MENU听

Is cable television doomed? Is the network schedule a thing of the past? Will these old war horses be replaced by new streaming services that deliver shows when and where viewers want?

We鈥檇 say 鈥渟tay tuned,鈥� but nowadays that鈥檚 an anachronism. Nobody wants to wait to find out what happens next. Binge watching and time shifting rule. That鈥檚 the point of TV鈥檚 changes.

Web streaming has been big for years, of course, but 2014 might be the year it started to become the norm. In the fall both HBO and CBS announced they鈥檒l launch their own Internet program delivery efforts. Neither will require a subscription to cable or satellite TV. Eventually the CBS service could eliminate the need for local broadcast affiliates.

We鈥檝e seen the future, and it鈥檚 buffering.

鈥淢ore and more networks and production companies will be following suit very fast 鈥� or slowly to their own peril 鈥� experts say,鈥� wrote the Monitor鈥檚 Daniel B. Wood when the news broke.

鈥淐BS All Access鈥� enables viewers to watch current network hits such as 鈥淭丑别 Big Bang Theory鈥� and thousands of old series episodes for about $6 a month. HBO hopes to launch its new service in time for the next season of 鈥淕ame of Thrones.鈥�

Will consumers be better off in a world of a la carte entertainment? It鈥檚 true they鈥檒l no longer have to pay for a cable bundle that includes lots of channels they don鈥檛 watch. But at $6 or so per month, the cost of assembling a custom TV entertainment suite will add up quickly. Any savings will depend crucially on what, and how much, individual households watch.听

BILLIONAIRES AND THEIR SPORTS TOYS听

This was a tough year for professional sports. Basketball kicked things off with the Donald Sterling debacle. Remember that one? The now-former billionaire owner of the Los Angeles Clippers got in big trouble last spring for making racist statements to his girlfriend. New National Basketball Association (NBA) commissioner Adam Silver banned Mr. Sterling for life and forced him to sell the team.

Then in September Atlanta Hawks owner Bruce Levenson revealed that he鈥檇 sent e-mails implying white fans were more valuable than black ones. He says he鈥檚 selling his majority stake in the team.

At least in the NBA things happened quickly. The National Football League kind of muddled around. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell faced tough criticism in 2014 for the league鈥檚 handling of domestic abuse allegations. Consider the Ray Rice case: The now former Baltimore Ravens running back initially received only a two-game suspension after admitting he鈥檇 knocked out his fianc茅e in a casino elevator.

After shocking video surfaced of Mr. Rice actually throwing the punch, Mr. Goodell hastily banned Rice indefinitely. An arbitrator later overturned the decision, saying it was 鈥渁n abuse of discretion,鈥� since Rice had never misrepresented what happened in the incident.

Trying to recover from this self-inflicted sacking, the league in December unveiled a new domestic abuse policy that includes many reforms embraced by forward-thinking employers, the Monitor鈥檚 Harry Bruinius wrote.听

鈥淟eague owners endorsed a policy that includes clearer guidelines, funds for counseling, expanded services for victims and violators, and 鈥� perhaps most significantly, experts say 鈥� a new special counsel for investigations and conduct,鈥� wrote Mr. Bruinius.听