海角大神

The announcement from famously crime-ridden Chicago that violent crime in general, and homicides in particular, fell dramatically in 2013 compared with the year before quickly produced claims of credit from the Police Department.

But some analysts are suggesting the drop 鈥� homicides fell 18 percent from 503 in 2012 to 415 in 2013, while shootings plummeted by 24 percent 鈥� can be attributed to other factors, including some that are internal to the gangs responsible for the bulk of the city鈥檚 violence.

鈥淢ore intelligent policing prevents murder,鈥� Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy told reporters this week, saying the drop is attributed to a number of restructured policing techniques. They include launching a 鈥済ang audit鈥� to focus on individual gang members and turf conflicts that may become factors in future violence, and concentrating efforts in more than 20 鈥渋mpact zones鈥� on the city鈥檚 South and West sides, where crime is more rampant.

But according to Arthur Lurigio, a criminal justice professor at Loyola University in Chicago, the dramatic surge in homicides in 2012 made it an unreliable benchmark for determining if the lowered number of homicides the following year was the result of a specific change in policing strategy. In fact, when compared with the 2011 total of 435, homicides in 2013 were only 5 percent lower.

鈥淭he unusual spike in 2012 was attributable to a confluence of factors that came together that we are not likely to see in subsequent years,鈥� Professor Lurigio says. They include: An unusually warm winter and spring, and an 鈥渦nprecedented gang fragmentation鈥� that increased tensions in the city鈥檚 most crime-ridden neighborhoods. Since then, Lurigio says, gang structures have tightened so that there is more control of the streets.

鈥淭here was more of a resolution this past year in that they were able to mark off space and maybe negotiate around their differences,鈥� he says. Nevertheless, he adds, the proactive police presence also helped establish more stability in high-tension neighborhoods.

Putting Chicago鈥檚 trends in an even broader historical perspective, a report published by Yale University鈥檚 Institution for Social and Policy Studies in December said that, despite the 2012 jump, homicides in Chicago are at a historic low when compared with data going back as far as 1965.

The report notes also that the greatest proportion of homicides in Chicago involves street gangs, and in particularly, factions operating within the same gang organization.

鈥淭he nature of gang homicides in Chicago has changed from one between warring distinct gangs to one between related or affiliated gangs,鈥� it says.

Meanwhile, even as the Police Department claims credit for the declining levels of murder and other violence, its allocation of resources is being questioned.

In 2013, Chicago spent nearly $100 million in overtime pay for police, triple the $32 million budgeted by the city for the year and almost double what it spent on police overtime in 2012. The city is budgeting $70 million for police overtime in 2014.

The police union has long complained that relying on overtime drains resources, and is not a reliable strategy for fighting crime. The union argues for more hiring, saying the city is compensating for its diminished police ranks by moving rookie cops, who have little experience, to 鈥渋mpact zones鈥� where crime is rampant.

鈥淔rom a budgetary standpoint, it鈥檚 not sustainable,鈥� agrees Loyola鈥檚 Lurigio. 鈥淚t鈥檚 also not sustainable for a long-term police strategy. If you want people close to the ground, you don鈥檛 want cops driving around in cars, you also want cops who can get a firm grasp of what鈥檚 gong on, and who are going to be known to the people in the neighborhood.

鈥淚f you have ears to the ground regularly,鈥� he continues, 鈥測ou鈥檙e going to listen in a different way, you鈥檙e going to be more informed about the intelligence you鈥檙e going to gather. You want a more sustained presence.鈥�