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Jay Leno returns to 鈥�The Tonight Show鈥� berth Monday night, but the late-night television landscape has changed dramatically since the last time he ascended to this coveted seat back in 1992, when Johnny Carson departed.

Cable, Internet, and the DVR have fragmented audiences. A whole new generation of media consumers has grown up with little, if any, broadcast-network loyalty. And comics such as Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert, and Bill Maher have moved comedy light-years past the amiable PG-ness of an earlier era.

NBC, now mired in fourth place among networks, has suffered more than most. And the perceived nastiness of the tussle between Mr. Leno and Conan O鈥橞rien for the 11:35 p.m. slot has not helped the network. (Monitor report on how Leno-O'Brien feud hurt NBC.)

鈥淣o matter how they paint this pig, the last-place network has lost a huge swath of TV-watchers,鈥� says Richard Laermer, author of 鈥淧unk Marketing鈥� and 鈥淭rend Spotting 2011.鈥�

鈥淛ay Leno鈥檚 return to late-night will be tarnished,鈥� says John O鈥橪eary, who teaches communications at Villanova University in Pennsylvania. 鈥淥ne of the most salient aspects of Leno鈥檚 public persona was his image as a nice, humble guy. Now, because of the controversy with Conan O鈥橞rien, he comes across as somewhat selfish and opportunistic.鈥�

Younger viewers resent O'Brien's treatment

It doesn鈥檛 help that today鈥檚 TV viewers are far more fickle, he adds. 鈥淎s the TV audience gets put into more and more fragmented pieces, I don鈥檛 see Leno being able to garnish impressive ratings. He will have lost some of the older members of the television audience, and many of the younger members will certainly resent the way he helped to force Conan out.鈥� (More in the Monitor on O'Brien's fans.)

But most expect the drama surrounding Leno鈥檚 return to fizzle soon, says James Hibberd, senior online editor for The Hollywood Reporter. Leno and late-night host David Letterman have already wisecracked plenty about the turn of events. 鈥淎fter a few nights of jokes about each other,鈥� he adds, 鈥渘o doubt they will slip back into their old routines.鈥�

Here is where things are likely to stand after the smoke clears from the late-night wars, according to top TV analysts and pundits:

O鈥橞rien's absence from the late-night mix is an unfortunate casualty of the fracas, points out Mr. Hibberd, although most observers expect him to return, in some form, down the road. But this late-night soap opera has underlined some good news for the broadcast industry.

鈥淣etwork prime-time still means something, even in this super multichannel universe,鈥� says Dwight DeWerth-Pallmeyer, director of communication studies at Widener University in Chester, Pa. People still aren't ready to abandon prime-time programming on the traditional network powerhouses to the usual late-night shtick, he says.

What future for late-night TV?

鈥淭he late-night format works for the comedian/host entertainment format because it is still relatively inexpensive to produce [compared with dramas and sitcoms] and is uniquely designed for an audience that is bound to shrink as viewers go to bed,鈥� says Mr. DeWerth-Pallmeyer. 鈥淭here is no downside to turning off the late-night shows because there is no real story line that viewers believe they are losing out on by going to bed."

Still, late-night TV and Leno survive because they make for great "comfort food" in the nostalgic sense that baby boomers have learned to rely on from their first memories of Johnny Carson, Jack Paar, or even Steve Allen.

What鈥檚 the future of late-night television?

鈥淭he success of Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert reveals that combining conventions from different types of program genres can be fruitful,鈥� says Mr. O鈥橪eary. 鈥淪tewart has found a way to combine humor with the conventions of a political-analysis program. I suspect that we will see more of this. Perhaps a sports show that mingles with the conventions of a comedy show.鈥�