海角大神

Despite all the talk of a 鈥渂lue wave鈥� this November, Democrats are facing the real possibility that President Trump may break the mold 鈥� again 鈥� by holding on to his Republican majorities in Congress.

Public sentiment that the country is on the 鈥渞ight track鈥� has risen to a 10-year high. Mr. Trump鈥檚 approval ratings are also ticking up. Unemployment has dropped to 3.9 percent.

But Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, the Democrat tasked with helping his party win as many Senate elections as possible, is still professing confidence.

鈥淪enate Democrats are very bullish about the direction of the 2018 elections,鈥� Senator Van Hollen, chair of Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told Thursday. 鈥淏ut we are taking nothing for granted.鈥�

That the Democrats can even contemplate winning a Senate majority is extraordinary. It鈥檚 true they need only a net gain of two seats to take over, and historically, the president鈥檚 party usually loses seats in midterm elections.聽But they face a tough 鈥渕ap鈥� 鈥� 26 Democratic senators are up for reelection, including 10 from states won by Trump in 2016.

Senate-race analyst Jennifer Duffy of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report puts the Democrats鈥� chances of winning a majority at 35 to 40 percent, with an equal chance that the Senate winds up tied.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a much less chance that we have a status quo election, where Republicans have 51 seats鈥� out of 100, Ms. Duffy says. 鈥淭here鈥檚 almost no chance that [Republicans] actually gain seats.鈥�

Senator Van Hollen argues that red-state Democratic incumbents will win reelection this fall by talking pocketbook issues 鈥� especially the cost and availability of health care, and flat wage growth 鈥� and focusing on the needs of their voters.

Take West Virginia, a state that Trump won by 42 points. Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is vulnerable, but not a goner. The May 8 primary didn鈥檛 give Senator Manchin his preferred opponent, retired coal baron and ex-convict聽Don Blankenship.聽But GOP nominee Patrick Morrisey, the state鈥檚 attorney general, has soft spots 鈥� including the fact that he鈥檚 a native of New Jersey and failed to win a Republican primary for a House seat there in 2000.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think the people of West Virginia will want a New Jersey reject, when they鈥檝e got somebody with West Virginia in his DNA like Joe Manchin,鈥� Van Hollen said.

The Trump effect

The November midterms will test another proposition that鈥檚 central to the outcome: Will Trump voters turn out without Trump himself on the ballot? In the Obama era, Democrats learned the hard way that without the president himself on the ballot, they got shellacked. Democrats now hope the same principle holds for Trump voters.

But Trump will do everything he can to turn out his voters, including hold rallies in key states. And some indicators are suggesting a more hospitable environment for Trump-backed candidates.

Polls that gauge public sentiment on whether the country is heading in the 鈥渞ight direction鈥� have moved steadily upward, now averaging聽. That could help Republicans, says veteran GOP pollster Neil Newhouse.

鈥淚 understand how unpopular President Trump is, and the intensity behind the Democratic vote, but how much does this increasingly positive mood of country, which is economically driven, soften the blue wave?鈥� Mr. Newhouse asks.

The blue wave is real, he adds, 鈥渂ut do the Democrats gain 20 seats or 40 seats in the House?鈥� The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take over that chamber.

Peter Fenn, a longtime Democratic strategist, also sees potential that the wave could soften, and take some of the edge off Democrats鈥� advantage, if they mishandle their message.

鈥淚 worry that we stay on Trump鈥檚 personal stuff,鈥� he says. 鈥淵ou know, we don鈥檛 have to talk about Stormy Daniels.鈥�

At the Monitor Breakfast, Van Hollen pointed repeatedly to Sen. Doug Jones, the Democrat who won the special election in Alabama last December, as the model for how to succeed in a red state (though he did not mention Senator Jones鈥檚 deeply flawed GOP rival, former Judge Roy Moore).

鈥淗e talked about issues that people care about; he didn't get involved in a big polarizing partisan fight,鈥� Van Hollen said 鈥淗e talked about the Children's Health Insurance Program and how that was important to people in Alabama.鈥�

Impeachment and the Clintons

Of course, there are miles to go before Nov. 6, and the Democrats need to play their hand just right, including winning at least two of the GOP鈥檚 three most vulnerable Senate seats, in Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee. And that means making sure their voters turn out. Democrats still have an edge against Republicans in voter enthusiasm, but there are factors that could mitigate that: impeachment and the Clintons.

While prominent Democrats like Van Hollen and House minority leader Nancy Pelosi discourage talk of trying to impeach Trump if the Democrats retake control of the House, there鈥檚 an anti-Trump constituency that wants to go there. When asked about impeachment and special counsel Robert Mueller鈥檚 investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election, Van Hollen quickly turns the discussion to kitchen-table issues.

鈥淟et鈥檚 just let Mueller continue to do his work. Let鈥檚 find out what the facts are here,鈥� says Van Hollen. Voters 鈥渃are about rising health care costs. They care about trying to modernize our infrastructure.鈥�

As for who might show up on the campaign trail, including the Clintons and former President Barack Obama, Van Hollen says he would not discourage anyone from participating 鈥� even someone as polarizing as 2016 presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

鈥淲e welcome support from everybody who wants to help, including Secretary Clinton and former President Obama,鈥� Van Hollen said, adding that 鈥渆very campaign will decide for themselves whether they want somebody to be out on the campaign trail.鈥�

If Trump鈥檚 very being is energizing to many Democratic voters, so too might figures like Mrs. Clinton be to Republicans. Even her husband, former President Bill Clinton 鈥� once the gold standard as a campaigner 鈥� has become risky as a surrogate. Part of the issue is the #MeToo movement, and his past as a womanizer. Also, says Duffy, 鈥渉e鈥檚 not good at staying on message, and he鈥檚 still pretty angry. So he might do more harm than good.鈥�

To view the C-Span video of the Monitor Breakfast with Van Hollen, click .