海角大神

What do Walmart moms want, and who will win their hearts in the 2012 election?

That question lies at the center of this critical bloc of swing voters, according to Republican pollster Neil Newhouse and Democratic pollster Margie Omero, who released a survey Wednesday on this demographic group.

A Walmart mom is a woman with children age 18 or younger living at home who shops at Walmart at least once a month. They represent 27 percent of all registered women voters and 14 percent of the overall electorate. A majority voted for President Obama in 2008, swung toward the Republicans in the 2010 midterms, and are still unhappy with Mr. Obama. But they haven鈥檛 given up on him.

鈥淭hese women are frustrated,鈥� says Mr. Newhouse of Public聽Opinion Strategies, speaking at a Monitor-hosted breakfast Wednesday. 鈥淭hey see Wall Street getting bailed out. ... There鈥檚 a resentment there that they see a government activism that doesn鈥檛 impact them directly. They want their share.鈥�

Specifically, says Ms. Omero, this group is more concerned about paying for college and the price of groceries than they are about how high their taxes are.

鈥淲hen I listen to the Walmart moms, in these focus groups, they didn鈥檛 say, 鈥榊ou know what I need, I need fewer environmental regulations for businesses, that will really help me out,鈥� 鈥� says Omero. 鈥淭hey said, 鈥業 would like college affordability, and milk for everybody, and affordable housing, pay my electric bill.鈥� These very tangible things.鈥�

How these concerns play into each party鈥檚 election strategy is a different question. Newhouse is the pollster for presidential candidate Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, though he declined to speak for the campaign. Still, when asked about Mr. Romney鈥檚 poll numbers 鈥� which seem stuck in the mid-20s among GOP voters 鈥� Newhouse asserted that 鈥渢his campaign has just begun, and we鈥檝e got a long ways to go.鈥�

For now, when asked to frame a broader Republican narrative for the election, Newhouse聽zeroed in on personal responsibility.

鈥淚t鈥檚 probably that if we get government out of the way and out of our lives, that at least to a greater extent, it will enable these families to make ends meet and to do better on a personal basis,鈥� Newhouse said. 鈥淚t will help in terms of job growth, reducing the deficit. It鈥檚 a more complicated message when you鈥檝e got 52 percent of these voters who say they expect government to play more of a role.鈥�

The personal-responsibility message may seem at odds with a demographic that is looking for more help from the government, but the Walmart-sponsored poll found that Walmart moms are more likely to blame themselves than any other group or person for the state of the economy.

Twenty-five percent of Walmart moms blame 鈥減eople who took on too much credit and live beyond their means,鈥� the No. 1 answer. In second place was former President George W. Bush, with 22 percent. Third was 鈥淲all Street banks and big corporations,鈥� at 15 percent. Obama came in fourth with 7 percent.

Among the public at large, big banks and corporations came in for more blame (21 percent) than Mr. Bush (15 percent), the pollsters said.

But no matter where the blame is placed, there鈥檚 no doubt the nation is in an extended sour mood.

鈥淭his is the longest period of sustained pessimism we鈥檝e had in this country since we started doing polling,鈥� Newhouse says. 鈥淲e鈥檝e had, I think this is 93 or 94 straight months where a plurality of Americans believe the country is off on the wrong track.鈥�

Newhouse notes that Obama鈥檚 negative job approval is noteworthy for its intensity. And even if GOP voters have not coalesced around a challenger to Obama, Newhouse isn鈥檛 worried about getting voters to turn out next year.

鈥淲hen people are upset, they鈥檙e going to vote,鈥� he says.

And for now, says Omero, Walmart moms in particular have yet to engage in the 2012 campaign.聽They are focused on matters closer to home. For Obama and the Democrats, that presents a challenge. Even though Obama won the 鈥淲almart mom鈥� vote in 2008, it鈥檚 not clear the Democrats can get them again.

鈥淭hey鈥檒l definitely need more 鈥榯ouches鈥� from a campaign to be engaged at the same level of more regular voters,鈥� Omero says.