海角大神

In California's tight gubernatorial race, could less really be more?

California Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) is already spending less 鈥� way less 鈥� on campaigning than former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R). What if he promised only to stay in office for a single term? That's the strategy a leading political writer in California has suggested as a way for Mr. Brown to produce the fireworks he needs to shoot ahead of Ms. Whitman in their race 鈥� now neck and neck with just six weeks to go.

鈥淗andled right 鈥� perhaps sprung before a large TV audience during a campaign debate 鈥� it could alter the Democrat鈥檚 widespread image as a career political opportunist,鈥� writes George Skelton in the Los Angeles Times. 鈥淏rown could cast himself as a committed native son determined to reroute the state back onto the right track. And he would have credibility as an aging pol looking to burnish his legacy for the history books and join his father [former governor] Pat Brown, as one of California鈥檚 political greats. In addition, for anyone concerned about his age 鈥� 72 鈥� it would guarantee that he鈥檇 step down at 76.鈥�

Is Mr. Skelton's idea spot-on or spaced-out?

鈥淸Skelton] is absolutely right on all counts,鈥� says Barbara O鈥機onnor, director of the Institute for Study of Politics and Media at California State University, Sacramento.

鈥淚f handled correctly, a one-term pledge could change the dynamics of the contest,鈥� adds Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. 鈥淪kelton makes some strong arguments, not least Brown鈥檚 age," he says. "Does California really want a two-term Brown turning 80 in office?鈥�

Skelton鈥檚 column mentions other top candidates who considered the idea and then backed off 鈥� including Sen. John McCain and former President Ronald Reagan. The first was reported in the book 鈥�Game Change鈥� by journalists John Heilemann and Mark Halperin, and the other, says Skelton, was related directly to him by the late Mike Deaver, Reagan鈥檚 one-time image guru.

Brown is currently being outspent by billionaire Whitman 100-to-1, and the pledge could shift some free media coverage his way, some suggest.

鈥淚f Brown pledges to serve only one term, the benefit for him will be a lot of press coverage,鈥� says Jessica Levinson, political reform director of the Center for Governmental Studies (CGS). 鈥淗e could try to portray himself as a selfless public servant and argue that California needs him to come in and clean house, but that he won鈥檛 stay past his welcome and won鈥檛 spend any of his time in office running for the next election.鈥�

Just as many analysts, inside and outside the state, say that a one-term promise is no good.

鈥淚f he could carry it off in a way that seemed genuine, it might make sense from a campaign standpoint, but it鈥檚 just as likely to seem gimmicky,鈥� says Matt Kerbel, a professor of political science at Villanova University. 鈥淭hese things can be dismissed [by voters] when you consider all the members of the House and Senate who say, 鈥業鈥檓 going to term limit myself鈥� and then find out how much work there is to be done and so run again....鈥�

Mr. Kerbel says official Washington begins to look beyond lame duck presidents about two years into their second terms to see who they are going to work with next and play to them instead. 鈥淲hy bring that on yourself?鈥� asks Kerbel. He says California鈥檚 problems are so deeply entrenched that it will take two terms for a governor to solve them. Also, it may be too late in the game for a shift like the one Skelton is proposing. 鈥淚t鈥檚 difficult to change people鈥檚 minds in just several weeks when you鈥檝e been around for decades,鈥� he says.

The Brown campaign did not respond to requests for comment for this article, but Brown himself rejected the idea over the weekend on local TV, saying it would immediately make him a lame duck.

Skelton himself mentioned that as a downside, and others agree.

鈥淚t is much more difficult for governors to get their programs through the legislature in their second term, since the legislature feels that they have less political clout,鈥� says Robert Stern, president of CGS.

Mr. Stern says he can鈥檛 recall any presidential or gubernatorial candidate who has ever voluntarily pledged to serve only one term. But that fact might just as easily play into Brown鈥檚 strength as an iconoclast who thinks outside the box.

"It could be a 'Jerry Brown moment,' 鈥� says Mr. Stern, 鈥渟ince he often does things that are not expected or done by the typical politician.鈥�