What's happened to third parties in 2020?
Dear reader:
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Remember Gary Johnson? Jill Stein?
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They were third party candidates in the 2016 election, the former for the Libertarian Party, the latter for the Green Party. And by the standards of such insurgent candidacies they did very well.
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Third parties took six percent of the 2016 presidential vote, their largest share since Ross Perot ran for the second time in 1996. In 11 states, Mr. Johnson鈥檚 raw vote total alone was larger than the margin between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
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That doesn鈥檛 necessarily mean they elected President Trump. It鈥檚 difficult to predict how their voters would have split if they weren鈥檛 in the race. But it鈥檚 clear they made things harder for Ms. Clinton in key states, particularly in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where the third-party vote was much larger than Mr. Trump鈥檚 margin of victory.
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That鈥檚 not happening in 2020. (Yes, we鈥檝e heard about Kanye West. He鈥檚 unlikely to matter.)
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In general, the American political system isn鈥檛 set up for third parties. There really aren鈥檛 many independents 鈥� when you subtract voters who lean towards one party or another, . Plus, the U.S. winner-take-all system, where all but two states give all their Electoral College votes to the candidate who wins their state鈥檚 popular vote, discourages 鈥渨asting鈥� votes on marginal candidates.
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This year in particular there seems little electoral appetite for third parties. At this point in the 2016 cycle, 19 percent of voters were undecided or indicating they鈥檇 go third party, . Today that number is less than half its level of four years ago.
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People whose names voters might recognize have generally declined 2020 third party runs. No Rep. Justin Amash, the former Republican who toyed with a Libertarian bid.
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Kanye West isn鈥檛 exactly running hard. So far, he鈥檚 on the ballot in only two states that are up for grabs: Iowa, and Minnesota. He told one interviewer he was , not running.
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Which big party candidate benefits from this? We won鈥檛 know for sure until the votes are counted. But right now, .
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Let us know what you鈥檙e thinking at csmpolitics@csmonitor.com.
