海角大神

Sooner or later 鈥� whether in January 2025 or before 鈥� President Donald Trump will leave the White House. And when the dust settles, there will be a reckoning of sorts for the Republican Party.聽

There is no question that President Trump has profoundly disrupted American politics 鈥� and the GOP. His diehard supporters voted for that sharp shift, on matters of both style and substance.聽

Now, with an impeachment inquiry underway over Mr. Trump鈥檚 apparent solicitation of help from Ukraine in his reelection bid, Republicans are once again doing a gut check.

Overall, a the House impeachment inquiry, and support for impeachment itself is rising. Among Republicans, however, the vast majority of voters stand by the president. For GOP lawmakers, the typical response so far has been to lie low and say little, if anything, about the impeachment process underway. Perhaps fortunately for them, they are on a two-week recess.聽聽聽

But some cracks in the facade have begun to appear. A few GOP members have broken with the president, though not supporting impeachment. One House Republican for the inquiry, and another publicly criticized Mr. Trump鈥檚 phone call with the Ukrainian president 鈥� which is at the heart of the controversy 鈥� as 鈥渘ot OK.鈥� On Tuesday, a prominent GOP senator who divulged the July 25 phone call.聽

Even conservative Fox News has shown an uptick in on-air discord, as when host Ed Henry and commentator Mark Levin over the inquiry.聽

A fierce battle over the post-Trump direction of the Republican Party has been looming almost from the moment the president took office. But the impeachment inquiry has brought a sudden urgency to the question. As Republican lawmakers are acutely aware, the decision to back or distance themselves from the president will not only have a direct effect on his 鈥� and their own 鈥� short-term political futures, but may well shape the image and electoral prospects of their party for years to come.聽聽

鈥淭he old Republican Party is pretty much dead,鈥� says Cal Jillson, a presidential historian at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.

By 鈥渙ld Republican Party,鈥� Professor Jillson means the party of President Ronald Reagan, which has been the standard for GOP conservatism since his first election in 1980. Until 2016, the party stood for free trade, fiscal and social conservatism, a welcoming view of immigrants, and U.S. global leadership.

Mr. Trump has turned much of that on its head, alienating some party stalwarts but attracting new adherents 鈥� most important, white working class voters, many of whom used to vote Democratic or not at all. That group had been steadily moving away from the Democratic Party for years, but under Mr. Trump鈥檚 tenure the drift has become an avalanche.聽

Many longtime Republicans have come to see the value of Mr. Trump鈥檚 aggressive use of tariffs, new strictures on both legal and illegal immigration, and his 鈥淎merica First鈥� approach to the world. Even some Democrats see value in casting a new eye on the old way of doing things.

But some Trump-supporting Republicans suggest that a return to a more 鈥渘ormal鈥� presidency 鈥� in the literal sense of following the usual norms of conduct 鈥� may be a relief. The turmoil of the Trump White House, as seen in record-high turnover of top aides, and his penchant for inflammatory rhetoric sent straight to the public via Twitter have left even sympathetic observers exhausted.

But that may mostly be a question of ZIP code, says Ari Fleischer,聽White House spokesman during the second Bush administration.聽

鈥淚n Washington, absolutely, there鈥檚 a sense of exhaustion,鈥� says Mr. Fleischer, a Trump supporter. 鈥淥utside the Beltway, they don鈥檛 care about staff turnover. They love the fact that he鈥檚 shaking Washington up.鈥澛�

For the president鈥檚 opponents, the Trump era can鈥檛 end soon enough. And for Republican 鈥渘ever Trumpers,鈥� when the time comes it will be an opportunity for stock-taking.聽

鈥淭he Republican Party is at a crossroads post-Trump,鈥� says Sarah Longwell, executive director of Defending Democracy Together, a conservative group that opposes the president. 鈥淚t will either remain a Trumpist party driven by populism and nationalism, or it will course correct and realize it doesn鈥檛 have an electoral path forward with that kind of agenda.鈥�

But at that moment of reckoning, there鈥檚 a danger of learning the wrong lesson, other Republicans say.聽

鈥淭rump got some things right: a huge segment of the electorate that felt unheard,鈥� says Republican strategist Liz Mair. 鈥淭he elites were forgetting about the little guy.鈥澛犅�

That translated, she says, into undoing the North American Free Trade Agreement, which had cost some working Americans their jobs, and cracking down on illegal immigration.聽

Still, Ms. Mair sees 鈥淭rumpism鈥� mainly as a matter of style, not policy. One of the things supporters like about Trump, whether they agree with him 100% or not, is his chutzpah.聽聽

鈥淗e doesn鈥檛 dance around, or try to do things nicey nicey. He says what he thinks,鈥� says Ms. Mair. 鈥淔requently I disagree with him a lot on policy, but he does have guts in the way that he communicates with people and he has conviction.鈥澛�

Alternatively, whoever tries to succeed Mr. Trump could copy him policy for policy, but if they can鈥檛 grab voters in a visceral way, they won鈥檛 succeed.聽

As for the latest maelstrom, centered on Mr. Trump鈥檚 request of the Ukrainian president to look into former Vice President (and current 2020 candidate) Joe Biden and his son Hunter聽鈥� possibly as part of a quid pro quo arrangement 鈥� the president has again violated conventions that most American politicians wouldn鈥檛.聽

But did Mr. Trump鈥檚 request amount to an impeachable abuse of power? That鈥檚 for the majority House Democrats to decide. If they impeach, the action moves to the Republican-controlled Senate, where a two-thirds vote is required to convict the president and remove him from office 鈥� a mighty hill for Democrats to climb.

Impeachment followed by acquittal could help Mr. Trump win reelection. And a reelected Mr. Trump who has survived impeachment could grow even bolder in busting the norms of presidential behavior. Such a turn of events would send the Reagan-era party even further into the rearview mirror.聽

Staff writer Story Hinckley contributed to this report.