Why impeachment polls matter so much to Trump
| Washington
Dear reader:
One of the remarkable aspects of the turbulent Trump presidency has been his consistent position in the polls. No matter what happens, it seems, President Donald Trump鈥檚 job approval rating has between the high 30s and mid 40s 鈥� not great, not terrible.
Now the impeachment question is front and center, and the trend line there is clear: A majority of Americans support the House Democrats鈥� impeachment inquiry into Mr. Trump鈥檚 dealings with Ukraine, and a now support impeachment itself 鈥� a call to remove him from office. The Senate would make the final decision on removal.
Why We Wrote This
Public support for Democrats鈥� impeachment efforts is rising, even among Republicans. If it continues, GOP members of Congress could defect from the president.
Support for impeachment has grown over the past two weeks, following the release of information that appears to show Mr. Trump pressuring Ukraine to investigate 2020 rival Joe Biden, the former vice president. An analysis of polls by FiveThirtyEight shows a in support for impeachment, beginning Sept. 25.
Most important is the two-week trend among Republicans 鈥� from 8.1 percent supporting impeachment to 13.8 percent. That鈥檚 still small, but it鈥檚 significant. Republican members of Congress are watching their voters closely, and standing with the president 鈥� so far.
But that slight GOP shift toward favoring impeachment is key, and explains why House Republicans and the administration want an up-or-down vote on the inquiry sooner rather than later.
Overall, 鈥減ublic opinion is moving in favor of an inquiry fast,鈥� Jonathan Allen of NBC News. 鈥淚f that continues, there will be more pressure on Republicans to vote in favor of an inquiry -- from constituents.鈥�
A vote now means more Republicans would likely vote 鈥渘o,鈥� and a Republican who votes 鈥渘o鈥� on a probe can鈥檛 vote 鈥測es鈥� to impeach, Mr. Allen adds. 鈥淰otes locked in now.鈥�
The only thing that would alter that calculation is a 鈥渉uge change in the facts in evidence,鈥� Mr. Allen in another tweet.
That evidence may lie in the documents and testimony Democrats are trying to get, and which the Trump White House is refusing to supply. As a result, Mr. Trump faces a possible article of impeachment for obstruction.
Team Trump is focusing on process, and counting on a public that may not understand that impeachment is a political process, not a legal one. If Mr. Trump can convince his voters that he鈥檚 being treated unfairly by the Democrats, he may well stave off a collapse in his support. But if not, watch out.
Let us know what you鈥檙e thinking at csmpolitics@csmonitor.com.
