To impeach or not? Why Democrats have been keeping things fuzzy.
| Washington
Among Democrats in Congress, a new impeachment divide is emerging: Not only do they remain deeply split over whether President Donald Trump ought to be impeached, they can鈥檛 agree on whether they have, in fact, already begun the process.
As the various investigations, hearings, and court battles heat up,聽 Democratic leaders seem unable to decide whether it鈥檚 all still a prelude 鈥� or if an 鈥渋mpeachment investigation,鈥� as House Judiciary Committee chair Jerry Nadler of New York now terms it, is actually underway.聽
鈥淚f we have to go there, we鈥檒l have to go there,鈥� Speaker Nancy Pelosi聽 in her weekly press briefing last Thursday. 鈥淏ut we can鈥檛 go there unless we have the facts, and we will follow the facts ... and make our decision when we鈥檙e ready.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
To many Democrats, impeachment looks like the moral high road. But the public at large is divided on this sensitive issue. That goes a long way toward explaining leaders鈥� mixed signals.
A day later, Congressman Nadler聽told MSNBC鈥檚 Lawrence O鈥橠onnell that his committee was 鈥渋nvolved in an investigation to determine whether to recommend articles of impeachment to the House.鈥�
鈥淚 think there鈥檚 definitely some confusion because people are using different language,鈥� David Cicilline of Rhode Island, another Democrat on the Judiciary Committee,聽told Newsweek this week.聽
To critics, the disarray is making Democrats appear indecisive or even incompetent. Some say it could undermine them in federal court, where they鈥檝e got several cases against Mr. Trump and the Justice Department.
Others suggest the mixed messaging is just the party鈥檚 best way of navigating what increasingly appears to be a no-win political situation. It keeps the progressive base, the wing of the party most clamoring for impeachment, at bay without alienating swing voters who are unenthusiastic about the prospect. And it lets the party signal that they are concerned about the president鈥檚 actions without leaving them too vulnerable to the kind of backlash actual impeachment proceedings might bring.聽
鈥淐onfusion is not memorable. Impeachment is,鈥� says Capri Cafaro, a former Democratic Ohio state senator who鈥檚 now an executive in residence at American University. 鈥淸They鈥檙e] making the calculus that it鈥檚 better to take the risk of looking, in the short term, disorganized and not on the same page, in order to try to walk this fine line.鈥澛�
It鈥檚 hardly a grand strategy, and leadership can鈥檛 keep it going forever. But they don鈥檛 have to, Ms. Cafaro says. They just need to keep the balancing act going until the 2020 elections effectively take the issue off the table for them.聽
鈥楢pprehensive鈥� no matter what
Indeed, Democrats鈥� bind in many ways reflects how the politics of impeachment are inextricably linked to the 2020 campaign. If they move now to impeach the president, and wind up losing the election, they will almost certainly be blamed. If they don鈥檛 move toward impeachment, and lose the election, they will likely be blamed as well. On the other hand, if they win the election, then impeachment might be seen as unnecessary, anyway.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not something where there鈥檚 a consensus about how this turns out, and that tends to favor the status quo,鈥� says Alex Theodoridis, a political science professor at the University of California, Merced, and former chief of staff at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. 鈥淭he assumptions that politicians have made before have been shown to be incorrect, at least as it pertains to Trump. That makes Democrats even more apprehensive about whatever choices they make.鈥�
Part of the problem is that Democrats are probing a wide range of potentially impeachable offenses, including of and financial self-dealing. And there鈥檚 no consensus yet on what, if anything, they need to focus on if they were to launch impeachment proceedings against the president.
Then there鈥檚 the threat of political fallout. While 70% of Democrats want Congress to start proceedings, most voters 鈥� more than 60% 鈥� either aren鈥檛 sold or don鈥檛 have an opinion, according to.
It鈥檚 likely party leaders are considering how many voters they might lose in that 60% bloc 鈥� and how much it might energize Mr. Trump鈥檚 supporters 鈥� if they formally announce impeachment proceedings, Professor Theodoridis says. Certainly, it would be easier for Republicans to attack Democrats on impeachment than on being indecisive.
But there鈥檚 also a case to be made against a hard 鈥渘o鈥� to impeachment. The party鈥檚 progressive wing is small but vocal, and could be a formidable force in the primaries. Already 鈥� including Congressman Nadler 鈥� are facing serious primary challenges in 2020, The Daily Beast reported this week.聽
The view from the base
If Mr. Trump wins in 2020 after Democrats choose not to pursue impeachment, they could face serious consequences from their base for a long time. 鈥淒emocrats will not be able to say they gave their best effort against Trump when they didn鈥檛 use the one tool they really have,鈥� says Erin O鈥橞rien, chair of the political science department at the University of Massachusetts, Boston.
To many in the party鈥檚 base, politics are beside the point: impeachment is simply the right thing to do. Congress already holds the dubious honor of being one of the most distrusted institutions in American society. Some 80% of Americans think members of Congress act unethically all or some of the time, according to. If Democrats don鈥檛 pursue impeachment, they may be seen as ceding one of Congress鈥� main jobs 鈥� oversight 鈥� in favor of a political agenda.
鈥淭hese are equal branches and, at best, we can see that there are questionable acts that should be investigated,鈥� Professor O鈥橞rien says. Voters want to see 鈥渟ome honor in Washington,鈥� she adds. 鈥淭o see politicians willing to do something, even if it might hurt their election concerns.鈥�
Of course, Republicans are just as likely to see it as a co-opting of the Constitution for partisan purposes 鈥� especially if Democrats fail to get any meaningful GOP support for impeachment proceedings.
So far, this stew of potential outcomes has led to some surface movement among Democrats. But nothing suggests a meaningful shift from the current situation.
One first step
The Judiciary Committee鈥檚 vote last Thursday approving the procedures for an impeachment probe was just that 鈥� a vote on the rules that would guide impeachment proceedings. It didn鈥檛 recommend a full House vote on the matter, which historically has been how Congress begins an official impeachment inquiry. The move added some formality to the investigation, but didn鈥檛 really change the political dynamics behind it.聽
The committee鈥檚 first big 鈥渋mpeachment hearing,鈥� held Tuesday and featuring testimony by former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowksi, ended in much the same way, despite the skilled questioning by attorney and Democratic consultant Barry Berke.聽
鈥淚t鈥檚 more extensive pageantry,鈥� says Ms. Cafaro.
Some say this state of affairs is the result of the party鈥檚 inaction after the release of former special counsel Robert Mueller鈥檚 report. 鈥淒emocrats were handed a pretty rich hand and they did nothing with it,鈥� Professor O鈥橞rien says. Now, with 2020 on the horizon, they鈥檙e forced to tread water 鈥� and getting politically outplayed. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think they鈥檙e playing a good long game.鈥澛�
