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Dear reader:
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鈥淭he 2020 election isn鈥檛 going to be close.鈥� That was conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt,听听in the Washington Post last weekend.
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Mr. Hewitt鈥檚 confidence in President Donald Trump鈥檚 reelection boils down to one factor: the economy. Last year, many economic analysts were nervously predicting a recession on the horizon. Today, the economy is looking stronger by the day. And in the modern era, presidential elections have often tracked with the state of the economy.
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Still, there are a number of factors working against the president. Mr. Trump is uniquely unpopular, the only president whose Gallup approval rating has never once reached 50% or higher, as CNN鈥檚 Chris Cillizza听. His standing in key swing states is even lower.
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In this context, former Vice President Joe Biden鈥檚 campaign message 鈥� casting the Trump presidency as 鈥渁n aberrant moment鈥� in the nation鈥檚 history 鈥� may be a shrewd move. Unlike many of his Democratic rivals, Mr. Biden is not running on the notion that the country has deep, systemic problems in need of dramatic overhaul.听 He鈥檚 running against Mr. Trump鈥檚 personal values and alleged character deficits.
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Mr. Biden might as well don a blue cap saying: 鈥淢ake America Great Again,鈥� National Journal鈥檚 Josh Kraushaar听.
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By taking this approach, the former vice president 鈥渄eftly avoided wading into the ideologically driven conversation currently dominating the Democratic primary in favor of a broad anti-Trump message that鈥檚 embraced by all the party鈥檚 fractious factions, from the hard Left to anti-Trump Republicans,鈥� Mr. Kraushaar writes.
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Throughout the Trump presidency, Democrats have vacillated on precisely this question: Do they attack the president as an anomaly 鈥� someone who is unqualified to run the country, who has coarsened our national discourse and obliterated norms of presidential behavior? Or do they campaign against him the way they would against virtually ANY Republican 鈥撎齝riticizing him for a tax policy that favors the wealthy, for rolling back regulations that protect the environment, for trying to strip health coverage from those who need it most, and so on?
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To Mr. Biden, the president is the problem. To others in his party, Mr. Trump is the logical outgrowth of a corrupt status quo, embodied by modern Republicanism, that needs to change.
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We鈥檒l find out which vision Democratic voters prefer.
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Let us know what you鈥檙e thinking at听csmpolitics@csmonitor.com.