海角大神

鈥淓go-crazed.鈥� 鈥淩eprehensible.鈥� 鈥淕od help us all.鈥�

That鈥檚 a sampling of the venom hurled by this week 鈥撀爊ot at President Trump, but at former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, after Mr. Schultz announced that he is exploring a run for president.

The problem? Schultz says he would run as an independent. Or as Democrats see it, a spoiler, who would have no chance of winning but very well might secure Mr. Trump鈥檚 reelection by siphoning critical votes away from the Democratic nominee.

Many were quick to dismiss Schultz鈥檚 argument that 40 percent of Americans now identify as independents because they鈥檙e more moderate than the two parties 鈥� since polling and research have shown that most of those voters, in fact, behave consistently like partisans. Likewise, many refuted his claim that there鈥檚 a large appetite for a centrist candidate who is socially liberal but economically conservative. A by political scientist Lee Drutman shows that, if anything, the opposite might be closer to the truth.

Not surprisingly, Schultz鈥檚 advisers 鈥� who include former Obama aide Bill Burton and former McCain aide Steve Schmidt 鈥� pushed back. 鈥淣obody who is speculating about [Schultz playing the spoiler] on Twitter has given any thought to the possibility that the Democratic Party nominates someone who is so far to the left that it guarantees Trump a reelection,鈥� Mr. Schmidt . 鈥淎nd at that point, the only person who would theoretically be able to stop Trump from a second term is a centrist candidacy of someone like Schultz.鈥�

While it鈥檚 true that centrist, business-friendly candidates often tend to be 鈥渄uds with the general electorate,鈥� , there鈥檚 also 鈥渘ever been a moment in modern American history when both parties nominated populist disruptors.鈥� If that happens, upper-middle-class suburbanites 鈥� 鈥渢he kind that swung the House from Republican to Democratic control in 2018鈥� 鈥� might be open to a third-party option.

鈥淛ust like analysts dismissed Trump winning the Electoral College, an independent candidate who could hit 30-35 percent in the polls would have a real shot at getting to 270 electoral votes,鈥� Mr. Kraushaar writes. 鈥淚f [Schultz] focuses his message on providing competence at a time of growing chaos, he could become a reassuring alternative for a critical mass of Americans in 2020.鈥�

Let us know what you鈥檙e thinking at csmpolitics@csmonitor.com.