Speaking Politics phrase of the week: 'roll-off'
Roll-off:听A political science term for when people cast a ballot in some races 鈥� such as president 鈥� but don鈥檛 bother voting in others.
Questions about the amount of roll-off at the polls are surfacing as experts try to assess how many Donald Trump supporters will turn out to back him, but choose not to express a preference for some or all other candidates or issues.听
Political scientists consider ballot roll-off an under-recognized but serious problem. Christopher Mann, a political scientist at New York鈥檚 Skidmore College who studies the issue, said that depending on the type of election 鈥� presidential, non-presidential or state and local races 鈥� roll-off rates can range anywhere from 5 percent to 20 or 25 percent.听
鈥淒own-ballot roll-off is a hidden participation crisis in American representative democracy,鈥� Mr. Mann said. 鈥淚t generates surprisingly little attention, and I think that鈥檚 true because it鈥檚 difficult to research.鈥�
The studies that have been done have roll-off is deliberate and most likely can be explained by a lack of voter information. Mann also said voters who are faced with long ballots containing numerous ballot measures 鈥� such as in California 鈥� are more likely to roll off.听
Alienation from the electoral process is, of course, the other big reason. Some of Trump supporters鈥� deep anger 鈥渞aises the prospect that some of these Trump voters will show up on Election Day, vote Trump, and spite some or all down-ballot Republican candidates by skipping these contests,鈥� Thomas Schaller, a political scientist at the University of Maryland-Baltimore County. 鈥淭his would magnify the normal roll-off effect.鈥澨�
Mr. Schaller said it鈥檚 also possible that reliably Republican voters who dislike Trump might do the opposite 鈥� skip the presidential ballot, but vote for some or all other races. That would mean 鈥渓ost votes for Trump at the presidential level and lost votes at the sub-presidential level for all other Republicans,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hat is the disaster scenario for the GOP.鈥�
Mann said the unpopularity of Hillary Clinton, compared with past candidates, as well as Trump could lead more voters than usual to leave the presidential line blank.听
The roll-off issue is drawing attention in the key swing state of North Carolina, where a federal appeals court recently a controversial 2013 voter ID law.听
The ruling did leave intact a provision that eliminates straight-ticket voting 鈥� something that had been permitted since 1909. More than 40 percent of voters straight-ticket in 2010 and nearly 58 percent followed suit in 2012.
鈥淲e鈥檙e gonna see a lot more ballot roll-off this year, because of the lack of a straight-ticket option,鈥� Chris Cooper, head of the political science department at Western Carolina University.听
A separate, but related phenomenon is 鈥渄rop-off,鈥� or the decline in turnout between presidential elections and other electoral contests, such as congressional midterm elections, state and local elections for governor and other races.
Schaller said that drop-off can occur even during presidential years in states that hold post-November run-off elections, the 2008 race in which Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss failed to get the 50 percent majority needed to avoid a run-off, but then easily won in December because turnout was far lower.
Chuck McCutcheon writes his 鈥淪peaking Politics鈥� blog exclusively for Politics Voices.听
Interested in decoding what candidates are saying? Chuck McCutcheon and David Mark鈥檚 latest book, 鈥淒oubletalk: The Language, Code, and Jargon of a Presidential Election,鈥� is out now.
