海角大神

There are a variety of different political stories that caught my eye these last few days. Since I can鈥檛 tackle them all in the depth they deserve 鈥� at least not in a timely fashion 鈥� I thought I鈥檇 briefly comment on some of the most important. Here, in no particular order, are my thoughts about:

The Donald鈥檚 debate performance.聽In the media鈥檚 focus on reporting how Trump鈥檚 polling support is holding steady in the aftermath of the Fox-hosted political debate, perhaps the most important takeaway from that event has been underplayed. Since the debate, Trump has been making the media rounds, using a series of one-on-one interviews and policy pronouncements to聽.聽Yes, his policies still contain their share of bombast and pleasing sound bites, but they are also more fleshed out than Trump鈥檚 previous pronouncements, which were typically all sizzle and no steak. Trump鈥檚 effort to fill in some of the details of his policy views, I suspect, is prompted by his realization that when standing on the debate stage next to his Republican competitors, the sound-bite pronouncements that work so well in staged settings orchestrated by his campaign to attract media coverage 鈥� 鈥淚 will build a yuuuge wall, paid for by Mexico!鈥� 鈥撀� are much less effective in debates when compared to the more detailed policy pronouncements put forth by his rivals. Contrary to the media stereotype, Trump is a smart man (albeit one prone to bluster). He surely realizes that, at this point, his polling 鈥� with about a quarter of likely Republican voters supporting him nationally 鈥� is at best in Howard Dean territory, and that as the Republican field begins to get pared down, it is quite possible Republican support will coalesce around one of his rivals, such as Bush or Rubio. In short, the Donald is making a concerted effort to step up his game. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the next debate.

The Biden one-term pledge. Reportedly Vice President Joe Biden will pledge, if he decides to run for president in 2016, that if elected he will only serve one term as president. He鈥檚 not alone. Lawrence Lessig, who is running a quixotic campaign for the Democratic nomination, has promised to do Biden one better 鈥撀犅爄f he gets his policy initiative dealing with campaign finance reform passed. In聽,聽I discussed the pros and cons of term limits and why I think limiting presidents to one term (formally or informally) is a very bad idea (although I don鈥檛 oppose term limits after two terms, at least not in principle), but candidates continue to trot this idea out, presumably because it gives them an aura of being above politics; they are concerned only with the public interest, and not with doing what will ensure their reelection. It鈥檚 worth remembering that the Framers spent considerable time debating this idea, part of聽, only to reject it in favor of unlimited terms. That choice, of course, has since been superseded by the 22nd Amendment. I happen to think there鈥檚 some virtue in making presidents remain sensitive to the political implications of their decisions, which is what occurs when presidents are free to seek a second term in office. In my view, it helps prevents the type of fiascos that I discuss in my previous post that have regularly afflicted recent presidents鈥� second terms. In short, it is probably a helpful check on presidential actions to make them consider how the public might react to what they are proposing to do.

Carly Fiorina has been discovered 鈥� and now she undergoes scrutiny. I鈥檝e referenced the Sides/Vavreck argument, coming out of their聽, that relatively unknown presidential candidates who burst onto the scene often undergo a process of 鈥渄iscovery, scrutiny and decline." This pattern accurately describes the candidacies of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry and even Newt Gingrich (twice!) in 2012. So far, however, The Donald seems to be avoiding this pattern 鈥� his polling support has survived the extended scrutiny for a longer period than did any of the quartet from 2012. Now it鈥檚 Carly Fiorina鈥檚 turn. In light of her widely praised performance in the 鈥渉appy hour鈥� version of the Fox debate, she instantly became the darling of the pundits. But with that favorable coverage, she has also begun to receive more scrutiny, particularly of聽. Of course, this scrutiny doesn鈥檛 come only from the media 鈥� rivals are only too happy to chime in. In this vein, The Donald recently said this about Fiorina in an interview: 鈥淪he鈥檚 a very nice woman, she got fired, she did a terrible job at Hewlett-Packard, she lost in a landslide 鈥� other than that, she鈥檚 a very nice woman.鈥�

Did you know the Obamas are on vacation?聽If one needs any more proof that Obama is a lame-duck president, it is this: Almost no one is criticizing his vacation plans. The most critical media coverage I鈥檝e heard centers on his choice of reading material while spending some down time at Martha鈥檚 Vineyard. Several years back聽聽and why they are constantly belittled for doing so. I noted that the president鈥檚 political opponents typically treat a vacationing president, no matter which party he represents, as the modern equivalent of Nero fiddling while Rome burns. For example, in a not atypical review,聽聽鈥淲hich begs the question 鈥� why did the president go ahead with his vacation despite the worst approval ratings of his presidency, plunging stock markets, falling consumer confidence, and overwhelming public disillusion with his handling of the economy? I think the answer lies in Obama鈥檚 professorial-style arrogance, and a condescending approach towards ordinary Americans.鈥� Yikes! Pardon me for wanting to soak up some rays! I concluded my post by advising the president to get some rest and relaxation, but to avoid the nude beaches. (Denizens of Martha鈥檚 Vineyard will confirm that some of the best beaches there are clothing optional.) This time around, however, and in contrast to previous years, criticism of the president鈥檚 vacation plans seems largely muted, which I can only believe reflects a more general sense that his presidency is nearing its end. For what it鈥檚 worth, I think it鈥檚 nice that the president and his family can finally enjoy a relaxing (the term is relative, of course, for a sitting president) two weeks in a picturesque island setting.

Nonetheless, I鈥檇 still be cautious about the whole nude beach thing.聽

Matthew Dickinson publishes his Presidential Power blog at聽.